WI Army of the Cumberland Surrenders, September 1863?

Anaxagoras

Banned
Throughout the American Civil War, the Confederacy never achieved a victory on the scale of what the American revolutionaries achieved at the Battle of Saratoga - they never succeeded in snuffing an entire Federal army out of existence.

It seems to me that the Confederacy's best chance of achieving the actual surrender of a Northern army was in September of 1863, when the Army of the Cumberland was defeated by the Army of Tennessee in north Georgia. Had the Battle of Chickamauga gone better for the South (if Polk had attacked on the right on time, for instance), had the trap at McLemore's Cove been sprung, had a more energetic pursuit after Chickamauga been undertaken with energy. . . there are many possibilities.

Whatever the specific POD, what would have been the strategic, political, and/or diplomatic consequences if the Army of the Cumberland had been forced to surrender?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Well, except that you're expecting the single most

Throughout the American Civil War, the Confederacy never achieved a victory on the scale of what the American revolutionaries achieved at the Battle of Saratoga - they never succeeded in snuffing an entire Federal army out of existence.

It seems to me that the Confederacy's best chance of achieving the actual surrender of a Northern army was in September of 1863, when the Army of the Cumberland was defeated by the Army of Tennessee in north Georgia. Had the Battle of Chickamauga gone better for the South (if Polk had attacked on the right on time, for instance), had the trap at McLemore's Cove been sprung, had a more energetic pursuit after Chickamauga been undertaken with energy. . . there are many possibilities.

Whatever the specific POD, what would have been the strategic, political, and/or diplomatic consequences if the Army of the Cumberland had been forced to surrender?


It's an intriguing idea, but you are expecting the single most unlikely event/element of friction - the withdrawal of Wood's division and Longstreet's ability to take advantage of it - to take place, but that the events that broke against the rebels to NOT take place ... Which is just unlikely, all things being equal.

Then you still have to deal with the realities of George Thomas, the fact the rebels suffered heavier casualties than the U.S. forces, the reality the overall differential in strength in the rebels' favor was only about 65,000 to 60,000, and the reality that Rosecrans et al could retreat - as they did - into a fortified city...

And, most importantly, the rebels - even with Longstreet in the theater - still only had one army worth the name in the West; the U.S. had two - and one of them was the Army of the Tennessee.:cool:

I just don't see the odds as being likely the rebels could win a Saratoga, not given the scale of the forces involved.

Best,
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I just don't see the odds as being likely the rebels could win a Saratoga, not given the scale of the forces involved.

Unlikely perhaps, but not ASB. And it was perhaps their greatest opportunity of the war to achieve a Saratoga-level victory. The fortuitous appearance of the gap in the Union line was a heaven-sent gift for the Confederates, but many things had gone against them in the campaign as well. The maddening failure to spring the trap at McLemore's Cove a week before the battle, the failure of Polk to attack on the morning of the second day of Chickamauga, and the failure to mount a vigorous pursuit after the rout in question. There are quite a few potential PODs.
 
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