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In early 1816, the situation didn’t look very good for the nascent Argentine nation. The European powers favoured a restoration to the status quo prior to the Napeolonic wars, and didn’t have much sympathy for anything that sounded “republican” or “revolutionary”. Ferdinand VII had returned to the Spanish throne, and had had statted very clairly that he wouldn’t negotiate with (Spanish-)American rebels. He would accept nothing but unconditional surrender.The revolution had been defeated in Mexico, Ecuador, Chile, and was about to be defeated in Venezuela. The loyalists forces firmly controled Perú, Upper Perú (OTL Bolivia) and Chile.

The Country that would later be Argentina hadn’t even declared it’s formal independence from Spain. It had a flag, an anathem and an independent government, but it hadn’t taken the step of formally declaring independence from Spain.

To make the matter worse, the country was on virtual civil war between centralists and federalist forces. The central government, led by Supreme director Pueyrredon (1815-1819) only controled Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and the North-Western provinces. Uruguay, Mesopotamia, and Sante Fe war under direct or inderect control of Artigas, a federalist caudillo. These provinces wouldn’t even send representatives to the Congress that would eventually declare independence in July 9th, 1816. Particulary serious for the government was Artigas influence over the province of Santa Fe, as Sante Fe was the in the route between Buenos Aires and the North west (the provinces who still recognised the central government). This was practically the only viable road, as cutting through the pampas would most likely mean been held captive by indians.

It is in this context that the Portuguse forces invaded Uruguay. The invansion was planned in January 1816, but didn’t started till August. The “Argentine” government had mixed feelings about this: on the one hand he didn’t like to lose this rich province, nor did he felt happy about having the Portuguese in the other bank of River Plate; but, on the other hand, given the problems the government faced, they were slightly relief as this was a cheap way of getting rid of Artigas, Uruguay’s governor and the main challenge to their authority. After being assuredby the Portuguese that they would limit to anexe Uruguay, the government remain de facto “neutral”, sending just simbolic aid to Artigas. At the same time, government forces invaded Santa Fe (whose governor was an ally of Artigas) in order to secure contact between Buenos Aires and the rest of the Country

This can be easily critisised by modern day Argentine revissionist historians. But, giving that the government had to defend the northern border from a loyalist attack, fund San Martin’s expedition to liberate Chile, defend Buenos Aires from a possible Spanish naval expedition and, at the same time, try to keep the country toghether, the attitude doesn’t look so bad. The fact that Artigas didn’t want to recognise the legitimacy of Pueyrredon’s government nor the decission of the Congress of 1816 didn’t help very much.

So, WI if Argentina had chosen to defend Uruguay? WI if, let’s say, after Artigas initial defeats, he meets Pueyrredon and a compromise is made: Artigas recognises Pueyrredon government; the discussion of the form of government is put off for a later date; and both federalists and centralist get toghether to fight the Portuguese (as toghether as they had fought the Spanish prior to 1814).

Could Pueyrredon see this war as an oportunity to unite the nation? Could he have delayed San Martin expedition towards Chile and focused first in fighting the Portuguese? Could he have considered this course of action might have been better for the country in the long term, as the Buenos Aires had a chance of retaining Uruguay if victorious, but no chance of controlling Chile if they defeated the Spanish there?

And, WI they do? Did Argentina had any chance of defeating Portugal in 1816/17/18? given all this contidtions, it wouldn’t seem likely at first sight; but San Martin was a well trained general, and had managed to create a relatively well-trained army, who was able to defeat Spanish Generals in both Chile and Perú. And this army would have the support of the local population in Uruguay and Mesopotamia (though some Uruguayans aristocrats colaborated with the Portuguese, the vast mayority of the population was against anexation). How strong were the Spanish forces?

And how would the loyalists have reacted? Would they have stayed in the defensive, or would they have lunched an attack from Chile or Upper Perú? Would the British try to stop Portuguese/Brazilian expansionism, and propose a compromise, as they did IOTL ten years later? Finally, would the outcome be better or worse for the nascent Argentine nation?



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