WI Argentina defends Uruguay from the Portuguese in 1816? (long)

In early 1816, the situation didn’t look very good for the nascent Argentine nation. The European powers favoured a restoration to the status quo prior to the Napeolonic wars, and didn’t have much sympathy for anything that sounded “republican” or “revolutionary”. Ferdinand VII had returned to the Spanish throne, and had had statted very clairly that he wouldn’t negotiate with (Spanish-)American rebels. He would accept nothing but unconditional surrender.The revolution had been defeated in Mexico, Ecuador, Chile, and was about to be defeated in Venezuela. The loyalists forces firmly controled Perú, Upper Perú (OTL Bolivia) and Chile.

The Country that would later be Argentina hadn’t even declared it’s formal independence from Spain. It had a flag, an anathem and an independent government, but it hadn’t taken the step of formally declaring independence from Spain.

To make the matter worse, the country was on virtual civil war between centralists and federalist forces. The central government, led by Supreme director Pueyrredon (1815-1819) only controled Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and the North-Western provinces. Uruguay, Mesopotamia, and Sante Fe war under direct or inderect control of Artigas, a federalist caudillo. These provinces wouldn’t even send representatives to the Congress that would eventually declare independence in July 9th, 1816. Particulary serious for the government was Artigas influence over the province of Santa Fe, as Sante Fe was the in the route between Buenos Aires and the North west (the provinces who still recognised the central government). This was practically the only viable road, as cutting through the pampas would most likely mean been held captive by indians.

It is in this context that the Portuguse forces invaded Uruguay. The invansion was planned in January 1816, but didn’t started till August. The “Argentine” government had mixed feelings about this: on the one hand he didn’t like to lose this rich province, nor did he felt happy about having the Portuguese in the other bank of River Plate; but, on the other hand, given the problems the government faced, they were slightly relief as this was a cheap way of getting rid of Artigas, Uruguay’s governor and the main challenge to their authority. After being assuredby the Portuguese that they would limit to anexe Uruguay, the government remain de facto “neutral”, sending just simbolic aid to Artigas. At the same time, government forces invaded Santa Fe (whose governor was an ally of Artigas) in order to secure contact between Buenos Aires and the rest of the Country

This can be easily critisised by modern day Argentine revissionist historians. But, giving that the government had to defend the northern border from a loyalist attack, fund San Martin’s expedition to liberate Chile, defend Buenos Aires from a possible Spanish naval expedition and, at the same time, try to keep the country toghether, the attitude doesn’t look so bad. The fact that Artigas didn’t want to recognise the legitimacy of Pueyrredon’s government nor the decission of the Congress of 1816 didn’t help very much.

So, WI if Argentina had chosen to defend Uruguay? WI if, let’s say, after Artigas initial defeats, he meets Pueyrredon and a compromise is made: Artigas recognises Pueyrredon government; the discussion of the form of government is put off for a later date; and both federalists and centralist get toghether to fight the Portuguese (as toghether as they had fought the Spanish prior to 1814).

Could Pueyrredon see this war as an oportunity to unite the nation? Could he have delayed San Martin expedition towards Chile and focused first in fighting the Portuguese? Could he have considered this course of action might have been better for the country in the long term, as the Buenos Aires had a chance of retaining Uruguay if victorious, but no chance of controlling Chile if they defeated the Spanish there?

And, WI they do? Did Argentina had any chance of defeating Portugal in 1816/17/18? given all this contidtions, it wouldn’t seem likely at first sight; but San Martin was a well trained general, and had managed to create a relatively well-trained army, who was able to defeat Spanish Generals in both Chile and Perú. And this army would have the support of the local population in Uruguay and Mesopotamia (though some Uruguayans aristocrats colaborated with the Portuguese, the vast mayority of the population was against anexation). How strong were the Spanish forces?

And how would the loyalists have reacted? Would they have stayed in the defensive, or would they have lunched an attack from Chile or Upper Perú? Would the British try to stop Portuguese/Brazilian expansionism, and propose a compromise, as they did IOTL ten years later? Finally, would the outcome be better or worse for the nascent Argentine nation?



 
Here's a map. Red means Spanish; Yellow, Portuguese; light Green, Argentine provinces under the influence of Artigas; dark green, provinces under the control of the Argentine central government; the colour whose name I don't know, Paraguay; grey, Amerindian lands.
 
Argentine 1816

I forgot to post the map... again. Here it is (please ignore the modern internal divisions):
 

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And, WI they do? Did Argentina had any chance of defeating Portugal in 1816/17/18? given all this contidtions, it wouldn’t seem likely at first sight; but San Martin was a well trained general, and had managed to create a relatively well-trained army, who was able to defeat Spanish Generals in both Chile and Perú. And this army would have the support of the local population in Uruguay and Mesopotamia (though some Uruguayans aristocrats colaborated with the Portuguese, the vast mayority of the population was against anexation). How strong were the Spanish forces?

And how would the loyalists have reacted? Would they have stayed in the defensive, or would they have lunched an attack from Chile or Upper Perú? Would the British try to stop Portuguese/Brazilian expansionism, and propose a compromise, as they did IOTL ten years later? Finally, would the outcome be better or worse for the nascent Argentine nation?


San Martin X Lécor in Uruguay? That would be an interesting war...;)

An interesting fact about the Portuguese troops that invaded the Banda Oriental in 1815 is that their core were veterans from the Peninsular War. The Portuguese sent 4.800 soldiers who fought against the French in order to capture Montevideo. The rest were recruited among the "gaucho" horsemen from Rio Grande do Sul.

The conquest was quite easy due to the Argentine division, as you explained. But even then the Artiguistas had some victories. Andrezito Guacari, the adoptive son of Artigas, even managed to siege São Borja. So a victory is not unlikely. It depends on how much effort Portugal would put on the conquest, and if the British would allow the Portuguese to send more troops (after all, Portugal was being ruled by Beresford at this point.

For the Uruguayan divisions, Montevideo still had many loyalists there, and they were the excuse that John VI used to invade. So I think the Portuguese would still have the support of the elite from Montevideo and from all the Portuguese/Brazilian farmers who lived in Banda Oriental (you know, the border at those times was more a theory than a fact ;)) while Buenos Aires would have all the rest of population. But at that time the "Éxodo Oriental" had already happened, so there would be less people in the province to protect it.
 

maverick

Banned
It is in this context that the Portuguse forces invaded Uruguay. The invansion was planned in January 1816, but didn’t started till August. The “Argentine” government had mixed feelings about this: on the one hand he didn’t like to lose this rich province, nor did he felt happy about having the Portuguese in the other bank of River Plate; but, on the other hand, given the problems the government faced, they were slightly relief as this was a cheap way of getting rid of Artigas, Uruguay’s governor and the main challenge to their authority. After being assuredby the Portuguese that they would limit to anexe Uruguay, the government remain de facto “neutral”, sending just simbolic aid to Artigas. At the same time, government forces invaded Santa Fe (whose governor was an ally of Artigas) in order to secure contact between Buenos Aires and the rest of the Country

I was always under the impression that since the main enemy at the time was Artigas, and not the Spanish, a fact made clear by the government's spending more money and men in the invasion of Santa Fe than in San Martin's liberation of Chile...then the Brazilian invasion of Uruguay was to some level part of Pueyrredon's plan and that he had some role in instigating it...

Although that sounds a little paranoid...not that I put it behind any of our dear supreme Directors...

The Country that would later be Argentina hadn’t even declared it’s formal independence from Spain. It had a flag, an anthem and an independent government, but it hadn’t taken the step of formally declaring independence from Spain.

It wasn't even Argentina, the name only came in the 1820s...actually, I had thought that the Invasion had taken place after the Congreso de Tucuman...I should check that again...

To make the matter worse, the country was on virtual civil war between centralists and federalist forces. The central government, led by Supreme director Pueyrredon (1815-1819) only controled Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and the North-Western provinces. Uruguay, Mesopotamia, and Sante Fe war under direct or inderect control of Artigas, a federalist caudillo. These provinces wouldn’t even send representatives to the Congress that would eventually declare independence in July 9th, 1816. Particulary serious for the government was Artigas influence over the province of Santa Fe, as Sante Fe was the in the route between Buenos Aires and the North west (the provinces who still recognised the central government). This was practically the only viable road, as cutting through the pampas would most likely mean been held captive by indians.

Once again, Pueyrredon and Rondeau were more interested in getting rid of the Federalists than in getting rid of the Spanish...


This can be easily critisised by modern day Argentine revissionist historians. But, giving that the government had to defend the northern border from a loyalist attack, fund San Martin’s expedition to liberate Chile, defend Buenos Aires from a possible Spanish naval expedition and, at the same time, try to keep the country toghether, the attitude doesn’t look so bad. The fact that Artigas didn’t want to recognise the legitimacy of Pueyrredon’s government nor the decission of the Congress of 1816 didn’t help very much.

Indeed...once again I'd point out that the Government was spending more resources in keeping the caudillos in place (failing miserably)...Spanish threats in the Rio de la Plata were gone, since the fall of Montevideo and the Battle of San Lorenzo I think...and while there were real menaces from the north, always defeated by Guemes...the Supreme Director still sent an army twice as big as San Martin's to subdue Lopez in Santa Fe in 1817...


So, WI if Argentina had chosen to defend Uruguay? WI if, let’s say, after Artigas initial defeats, he meets Pueyrredon and a compromise is made: Artigas recognises Pueyrredon government; the discussion of the form of government is put off for a later date; and both federalists and centralist get toghether to fight the Portuguese (as toghether as they had fought the Spanish prior to 1814).

Could Pueyrredon see this war as an oportunity to unite the nation? Could he have delayed San Martin expedition towards Chile and focused first in fighting the Portuguese? Could he have considered this course of action might have been better for the country in the long term, as the Buenos Aires had a chance of retaining Uruguay if victorious, but no chance of controlling Chile if they defeated the Spanish there?

San Martin might have to accept it...then again, he disobeyed orders from Rondeau to crush the caudillos and instead went to Peru...its more likely for him to obey Pueyrredon now, of course, even if the Chileans see this as a betrayal down the line...

Now, the compromise needs to come from the Supreme Director Pueyrredon...I'd think that Bustos and Lopez were kinda reasonable and would come in the defense of Artigas, and so was Pueyrredon, but the Supreme Director always had the intention of having supreme power...

And, WI they do? Did Argentina had any chance of defeating Portugal in 1816/17/18? given all this contidtions, it wouldn’t seem likely at first sight; but San Martin was a well trained general, and had managed to create a relatively well-trained army, who was able to defeat Spanish Generals in both Chile and Perú. And this army would have the support of the local population in Uruguay and Mesopotamia (though some Uruguayans aristocrats colaborated with the Portuguese, the vast mayority of the population was against anexation).

Probably goes like the war of 1826-1828...but with a different European scenario and the war of independence still going on...and this scenario has not considered Bolivar into the ecuation...

There's San Martin+Alvear and the rest of the guys with European training, not to mention that the provinces are not devastated by the civil wars of 1818-1823

How strong were the Spanish forces?

The Spanish had some 23,000 in Peru in 1820, according to that book I found, distributed along the borders at Arica, Lima, the Alto Peru, the borders with Nueva Granada and Argentina, etc...really divided, but well organized under Pio Tristan and de la Serna...

And how would the loyalists have reacted? Would they have stayed in the defensive, or would they have lunched an attack from Chile or Upper Perú? Would the British try to stop Portuguese/Brazilian expansionism, and propose a compromise, as they did IOTL ten years later?

Spanish invasion from Chile is implausible, and any invasion from the Alto Peru would have ended up crushed by Artigas just like the 7 invasions he stopped IOTL...

The British would have intervened at the first available opportunity...Portuguese Montevidio and Argentinean Buenos Aires is better for them than one country monopolizing both ports and the Rio de la Plata

Finally, would the outcome be better or worse for the nascent Argentine nation?

Depends on how fast we can defeat the Portuguese before British intervention...on how fast the Portuguese can defeat us...
 
Is an Spanish invasion from Chile impossible if the Army of the Andes is fighting in the east? That's probably the biggest threat. Also, would the Spanish join forces with the Portugese? Naval warfare would also be important and weren't Admiral Brown and Captain Bouchard with a large part of the warships in the Pacific, fighting as corsairs at that time? Couldn't the Portugese navy block Buenos Aires?
Now perhaps a working POD could be a revolutionary victory in Rancagua or something, so a fighting, independent Chile exist and, as no invasion is really feared from the north, the Argentinean government could focus in fighting the Portugese, or Artigas, or themselves, or everyone?
 
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