WI Argentina declares war to the Axis in April 1940?

(Because there are a bit too many “fascist Argentina” threads on this forum;))

It requires two Pods (the rest follows from those Pods)

- April 1940: María Luisa Iribarne, the wife of pro-allies president Roberto Ortiz (1938-1940), doesn’t die (Pod nº 1)

- 1940-1945: María Luisa Iribarne makes sure his husband respects his diet, something which keeps his diabethes reasonably controlled. He isn’t gonna be 100% healthy, but he’ll be much healthier than IOTL.

- April 1940: Britain accepts Ortiz’s proposal to join the war (Pod nº 2)*

- 31st April, 1940: Argentina declares war to the Axis.

June 1940: President Ortiz doesn’t have to resign due to his diabethes. He won’t die in 1942; he’ll live till 1950 instead.

What would the consequence of this be?

At first sight, one could assume there wouldn’t be significant consequences, as one could assume the entrance of Argentina to the war wouldn’t have altered the military situation in Europe in any significant way. But there would still be important consequences:

1) If Argentine merchant ships are attacked, there might be less food in Europe. One of the reasons why Great Britain preferred a neutral Argentina was that Argentina was much more valuable as a food exporter than as a military ally.

2) Surprisingly, the USA might not be too happy. After all, the US was officially neutral in 1940. If Argentina enters the war, it would fully confirm that the South Cone is an area under the British hegemony, not under the US one. They may not be vary please with this decission. (That’s just my view; I’d like to know what you think about this)

3) What would post-world scenario look like? IOTL, the US chose Brazil as it’s main ally, and somehow “punished” Argentina for having stayed neutral through practically all the war. Would this change in this scenario? Or would the fact that Argentina entered the war before the US authorisation prevent the US from considering Argentina a reliable ally?

4) What other consequences could this event have?

5) What would the internal political consequences of this declaration of war? This would probably butterfly away Peronism, for example...

6) Where would Argentine troops be employed?


* I’ve heard in a conference that Ortiz did propose Britain to join the war, but Britain kinly rejected the proposal. However, I could never found a source that could confirm this. In any case, this is AH, so it doesn’t matter:). Let’s assume for the purpuses of this scenario that he did make this proposal, and that Britain accepted.
 
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Well, I think that there was too much division in the higher ups in Argentina for this to really be a possibility, but I also think that, should Ortiz stay on longer, the biggest change isn't Argentina entering the war (which, as you say, wouldn't really have too much of an impact militarily), but rather Ortiz can continue his political reforms intended to open up the political process and do away with some, if not most, of the fraud, which might mean an earlier return to democracy, and THAT would almost certainly stunt the growth of Peronism.

Economically, developing closer ties with Britain might not be very favorable considering how devastated it'll be afterward, but I could see Argentina being even more heavily favored by Britain for its food imports, which could ensure a more stable Argentine economy in the post-war, and after helping in WW2, Argentina might get a Hong-Kong style deal for the Falklands, and maybe even an earlier return of the trains (hopefully with the existing workers staying on).

So basically, as far as WW2 is concerned, I can't really see this having much effect. For Argentina individually, it would be radically different though, especially if this means that fascism is kept in check in Argentina...

There are other things I didn't really think of, such as how the US-Argentine relations would change, since as you said this would prove that Argentina is rather firmly in the UK's sphere of influence.

And, as a totally random consequence, maybe Argentina might become a member of the Commonwealth with such a PoD :D
 
Well, Argentina could be seen as in the UK's sphere of influence. However, considering how warm the relations were between FDR and Churchill, the US might enter the war earlier than in OTL, even if it's after the 1940 election. Plus, considering how "positive" of an image Robert Murrow and CBS gave of the UK during the Blitz (assuming it still happens as in OTL), that could also help a bit.
 

maverick

Banned
Hmmm...any chance the Pro-Axis military officers try to launch a coup in 1940 or 1941 as a result of a Declaration of war? and not only the minoritary faction of pro-axis officers, but also men like Vice President Castillo...I don't know if he was pro-German, but he hated democracy and kept the country neutral

There could be a coup, or a failed conspiracy that is discovering, leading to the purging of pro-German elements such as Ramirez and Peron...

In any case, Ramirez is replaced at the War ministry by Rawson or Storni...

In any case, would Roosevelt really punish Argentina for joining a war he wants to join as well? hell, He might even try to use German sinking of Argentine ships as a violation of the Monroe Doctrine:p although that'd be highly unlikely...

Finally, this will not be good for our economy...remember the country boomed in the 1940s because of the war, and then began to tank due to a combination of factors, including the Marshall Plan and Peron's social policies...

I of course think that Ortiz declaring war in 1941 or 1942, after Pearl Harbour, or in 1943, along with Brazil, might be more plausible...the result being no Peronism, a more internationally integrated Argentina, etc...
 
Hmmm...any chance the Pro-Axis military officers try to launch a coup in 1940 or 1941 as a result of a Declaration of war?

Could there at least be a chance of neutralizing them?

There could be a coup, or a failed conspiracy that is discovering, leading to the purging of pro-German elements such as Ramirez and Peron...

I smell a potential TL!

any case, would Roosevelt really punish Argentina for joining a war he wants to join as well? hell, He might even try to use German sinking of Argentine ships as a violation of the Monroe Doctrine:p although that'd be highly unlikely...

I don't think he would punish Argentina - I think that given the warm relations between FDR and Churchill, he might actually encourage Argentina and (as weird as it might sound) Argentina could probably be a recipient for a lot of US money.

Finally, this will not be good for our economy...remember the country boomed in the 1940s because of the war, and then began to tank due to a combination of factors, including the Marshall Plan and Peron's social policies...

Well, what if British/American demand became pretty high during the war (because of a lack of manpower in some areas) and after (for some reason or another)? Could that have helped the economy boom, even if British and American companies begin investing in it hugely (thereby giving to Argentina the privileges that in OTL were given to Brazil)?
 
the USA might not be too happy. After all, the US was officially neutral in 1940. If Argentina enters the war, it would fully confirm that the South Cone is an area under the British hegemony, not under the US one. They may not be vary please with this decission. (That’s just my view; I’d like to know what you think about this)

In any case, would Roosevelt really punish Argentina for joining a war he wants to join as well? hell, He might even try to use German sinking of Argentine ships as a violation of the Monroe Doctrine:p although that'd be highly unlikely...

I don't think he would punish Argentina - I think that given the warm relations between FDR and Churchill, he might actually encourage Argentina and (as weird as it might sound) Argentina could probably be a recipient for a lot of US money.

Ok, you both have convinced me. Roosvelt wouldn't certainly punish Argentina for entering the war in WWII.

But maybe the US would still be a bit (silently) angry with a country who, despite being in its own hemisphere and its own (self-defined) area of influence, permanently insists in acting independently (Panamerican Conference of 1898, Chaco War, and now, independent declaration of war in WWII), even if it isn't not necessarly against the US interests.

Of course they won't say anything, since what Argentina is doing ITTL it's what the US want's to do. But we might be seen a bit like France was seen during part of the Cold war: a country definetley in the Western Camp and an important ally against the Soviets... but one who insited on acted independently.
 
I of course think that Ortiz declaring war in 1941 or 1942, after Pearl Harbour, or in 1943, along with Brazil, might be more plausible...

This scenario is far more likely than the one I posted...

...but I personnally find an independent declaration of war in early 1940 more interesting :)
 
Then there is of course the distinct possibility that there could have been some transfer of sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and their dependencies. After all Churchill did offer De Valera a united Ireland if he joined the Allies.
 
Then there is of course the distinct possibility that there could have been some transfer of sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and their dependencies. After all Churchill did offer De Valera a united Ireland if he joined the Allies.

And he rejected this? why? i didn't know this.
 
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Hmmm...any chance the Pro-Axis military officers try to launch a coup in 1940 or 1941 as a result of a Declaration of war? and not only the minoritary faction of pro-axis officers, but also men like Vice President Castillo...I don't know if he was pro-German, but he hated democracy and kept the country neutral

Could there at least be a chance of neutralizing them?

Well, certainly. After all, it was just by chance that they succeded in 1943. Nationalists officers were a minority even in the army, and their views weren't shared by many outside the armed forces. I think Ortiz had much more chances of avoiding the coup than Castillo, since he would have been able to appeal to popular support (something Castillo couldn't do)
 

maverick

Banned
Of course they won't say anything, since what Argentina is doing ITTL it's what the US want's to do. But we might be seen a bit like France was seen during part of the Cold war: a country definetley in the Western Camp and an important ally against the Soviets... but one who insited on acted independently.

What's the worse they could do to us in any case? meddle with our domestic and economic policies? encourage anti-democratic thoughts in our armed forces? Back other countries in territorial disputes..;).:rolleyes:
 
considering how "positive" of an image Robert Murrow and CBS

"Robert"?:confused: It was Edgar. (He changed it to Edward.)

I don't think he would punish Argentina - I think that given the warm relations between FDR and Churchill, he might actually encourage Argentina and (as weird as it might sound) Argentina could probably be a recipient for a lot of US money.

It occurs to me FDR might be able to use Argentina as a (covert) conduit for U.S. aid to Britain, & do it better if Argentina was ostensibly neutral.
 
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Do know there was in 1938 a conference in Lima Peru of the PanAmerican nations. In the conference they discussed what to do if a possible war started between Germany and the allies. Argentinas representative at the conference José María Cantilo supported American (meaning the Americas) Solidarity and there own politics.
When Poland was attacked in1939 in the congress of Panama for the PanAmerican nations Argentina declares its neutrality.

At this time the US is the big economic power displacing the UK in latin America. Argentinas relations with the UK. sour somewhat after this.

Also, in 1938 Ortiz declared invalid a declaration by the UK. over the Malvinas Islands (Falkland Islands) formulated in the Universal Postal Convention in Cairo.

But Ortiz was pro-Allies but you must remember not all the congressmen and Provincial Governors in Argentina supported the allies. Some of those Provincial Governors had much power.
 
There would be no Peron to emerge if Argentina declares a war to the Axis in 1940 and Ortiz would complete his term by 1944. Therefore, after the war, Argentina would benefit from the Marshall Plan which would result for an economic boom in Argentina after the war. Argentina would be in first world status comparable to France or Germany in terms of per capita.
 
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