WI Argentina: a nation divided?

Oh, my GOD! That is my Timeline! :eek::)

And yes, I know what you mean, I was a regular member and even a Moderator at OTL.com...before the end...

Hey, don't judge me by it, it was one of my first...the happy epiloguing was just part of my writting back then...I think that 'The Napoleon Restoration' has a similar epilogue...

The TL is not very detailed or realistic, but It was one of my first...maybe I should re-write it one day...

It's an interesting timeline.The details could be developped a bit, but the premises are good.
 
As of the Falklands: AFAIK it wasn't really an issue in Argentinean foreign policy until mid 20th century. So... first question is if the Confederacy gets sea access. If they don't Buenos Aires might pick that claim. If they do, they can either fight each other for it or, if they end up with some kind of friendly relationship, form a common front in that issue and agreeing a division should the UK ever turn them over. In any case, if any kind of Falklands war is butteflied away (and since you need a large amount of human stupidity to have it happen that's quite... arguable as human stupidity isn't precisely rare :p) the UK might be willing to give them away eventually as it was likely to happen in OTL if there wasn't a war. And if there's a war in this ATL... BUTTERFLIESSSSSSS
 
I have an idea mixing the Triple Alliance War and the Welsh settlers. It's a mess and ends up pretty one sided, but here it's the start.
The POD is: Confederated President Derqui doesn't put Urquiza in command of the Confederated army in Pavón in 1861. Confederated forces are victorious and demand control of the River Plate. Mitre, in full retreat, had managed to reach the city of Buenos Aires and, as he receives that message, fortifies the city and, discouraged and seeing his proyect of a country vanish, simply replies "come and earn it". At the sight of the entretched city, the Confederated leaders do the same Lavalle did decades before: turn back. The two states exists in a separate way and the Argentinian Confederacy (AC) is denied a sea exit, witch is used by Mitre to exert economic and diplomatic pressure in his attempts to unify the country - under a Buenos Aires' hegemony.
Seeking a way to get access to the ocean without Buenos Aires interference, Derqui gets the AC involved in the Uruguayan politics along with Paraguay, witch angers their Brazilian allies. In 1864 Brazil and Paraguay goes to war but Derqui - despite their involvment supporting the white party - keeps the AC neutral. In the meantime Mitre began to expand BA southwest, attempting to both occuppy the lands north of the Colorado River and blocking future attemps by the AC to do the same. By 1865 Welsh settlers... well, settle in the Patagonic coasts. As in OTL, after a successfull campaign in the Matto Grosso Paraguay asks permission to cross CA's territory to attack Brazil. But since the AC is in the brink of civil war, Paraguay's request are more in the lines of an ultimatum, although Solano Lopez also offers to share sea exits through the Uruguayan coast after victory. Realizing that getting involved in the war seems inevitable, Derqui sends Urquiza to meet with Mitre to check witch is BA's position towards war. They meet in near San Nicolas and, while the meeting is tense for moments they do agree that the country must be unified in the long run. Mitre clearly states he has no intention whatsoever to get involved in the Paraguayan-Brazilian war. However, since economic and political differences are huge, they both leave sadly thinking a unification won't be possible for a long, long time. Urquiza tells Derqui that Mitre doesn't want to get involved in the war. Around the time word passes along the informal backchannel/intellingence channels (that is, the politician's wives) that Mitre won't promote any attack by foreign powers (of course, excluding BA) against AC and, since he continues to plan to unify the country, considers it's in BA's best interest to have AC's territory remain under AC's control. This is view by the AC's Congress as a warranty that BA won't intervene in the war and many politicians promts to enter the war in Paraguay's side instead of waiting for an invasion. Enter in Paraguay' side can get them some important gains, entering in Brazil' side doesn't give them anything and being invaded might prompt an alliance of convenience with BA, meaning that BA troops and ships would be routinely moving through AC's territory. Urquiza, whose fields would turn into a battlefield if the war goes wrong, opose, but he's no longer in position to block the initiative. On May 20th, 1865 AC's Congress declares war against their former allies, Brazil, and Uruguay.
 
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It's been a few years now. The Paraguayan fleet was destroyed by the Imperial Brazilian Navy and their ships patrol the Parana and Uruguay rivers, usually facing heavy oposition from Paraguayan-AC batteries. Regular artillery, however, isn't effective against heavly armored Brazilian monitors, although primitive sea mines are setup from time to time in the rivers, sucessfully stopping the ships. Urquiza leads a contingent of AC's forces into Uruguay, but their supply situation is dire due Brazilian naval superiority in the Uruguay river. Paraguayan forces engange the Brazilian east of the Uruguay river, into Brazilian territory but the Imperial Army have managed to stop their advance and are slowly pushing them west. The AC is weakened and suffering internal rebelions, witch are put down by the armies that should be fighting the Brazilian-Uruguayan alliance and sometimes by their Paraguayan allies.
BA's army OTOH is taking a hard time trying to conquer Mapuche's land. This isn't a time of Remington rifles and smokeless gunpowder and Indians, heavly backed by Chile are putting a heavy fight. The campaign is bloody, costly and so far has shielded little benefit. Mitre is also worried about an inminent AC's collapse and a military defeat witch will lead to a Brazilian-Uruguayan invasion. While he sees the oportunity to unify the country, he attempts to play it carefully, and the BA's ambassador in Rio de Janeiro is trying to negotiate a peace treaty. However, as elections draw near a young and obscure politician attracts crowds with a distintc jingoistic speech. His name is Carlos Tejedor and he demands that the "powerful BA's army" stops chasing indians in the desert and uses it's power to march into AC and restore BA's to "its proper place". With all the rigging, fraud and everything Mitre can do to have his dolphin win the election, Tejedor wins the elections. Within months an informal truce takes place between BA and the Mapuches and the army begins to assemble for an offensive against AC's southern flank.
Seeing the danger for AC, Domingo Sarmiento, AC's ambassador in Chile, decides to do one of the things he used to make while in exile: try to use Chile to give trouble to BA, and quickly encourages Chilenean leadership to ocuppy the "unclaimed and rich lands" of Patagonia. While Chile has it's own issues with the Mapuches and doesn't want to mess with them, they decide to use their modern navy to dissembark in the unclaimed Patagonic Atlantic Coast and Tierra del Fuego. In the meantime BA has declared war against AC and Paraguay. In Uruguay Urquiza can't decide who to curse first: Tejedor, Sarmiento, the Brazilian Navy, the gunpowder manufacturer he's buying to or the shelf he just hit with his head while receiving the news. He decides to curse the shelf first and writes to the Entre Rios' senators to clear the mess they've got themselves into even if that means unifying under BA's hegemony.
In the South Atlantic, though, Chilenean marines disembark in a Welsh settlement in Patagonia. They pass the night there and some of them, drunk, began fighting and stealing around. Other marines join up those guys and by the morning the settlement has been looted, women raped and men killed. They leave by noon and later that same day a couple of Welsh fishing boats mourn in the town they discover the looting and after realizing their wives were raped two different sailboats set sail: one towards Buenos Aires, the other one towards the Falklands. Tejedor can't commit it's small navy nor troops to fight the veterans Chileneans and Brazil is too commited in pushing the Paraguayan forces out of their territory and their navy to keep them unsupplied to help. The British forces in the Falklands, however, quickly dispatch marines to the Patagonia and begin to patrol the area while asking for reinforcements. A British warship challenges a Chilenean ironclad in one of those first patrols but the Chilenean ship, although wounded, manages to sink the British one. Notified of it, the British ambassador demands Tejedor to declare war on Chile as the British ship was actually protecting British citizens in a land BA claims as it own but can't control. Otherwise, Britain will protect its citizens by stationing her forces where she wants. Feeling his about to loose all Patagonia if he doesn't, the BA Congress declare war on Chile. Their allies, Brazil and Uruguay, doesn't follow and AC is now in an anckward position, as they are cobelligerant with Chile against BA, but Chile claims a territory AC wants to make it's own and can't occupy at the moment. Word also arrives at Madrid that Chile has involved herself in a war with the UK, and the Spanish government begins to think in the rematch of the war they've just fought, lost, and isn't officially over.
 
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