WI Archbishop Montini is elected Pope in 1958?

Following the death of Pope Pius XII in 1958, Roncalli was elected, to his great surprise. He had even arrived in the Vatican with a return train ticket to Venice. Many had considered that Giovanni Batista Montini was a possible candidate, but, although he was Archbishop of one of the most ancient and prominent Sees in Italy, he was denied the Cardinalate. As a result, he was not present at the 1958 conclave and most of the cardinals abided by the established precedent of voting only for a member of the College of Cardinals, in spite of the affirmation in Canon Law that any Catholic male could be chosen.
WI the Cardinals voted for an ousider? He would be the first non-Cardinal elected Pope in 580 years after the election of Bartolomeo Prignano as Pope Urban VI in 1378...
How is a potential Montini election altering History? II Vatican Synod still occurs? Any thoughts?
 
I do not see Pope Paul calling a council. However much that came out of the council would ensue anyway from a series of Papal decrees but at a moderastely slower pace. Bagnini would still be tinkering with the liturgy. A papal encyclical on Religious Liberty could possibly engender a seriously adverse reaction from Lefebvre. New Theology will still take over the Church just at a slightly slower pace. The commission to study artificial contraception will not be convened and so the pope may not feel the need to issue Humanae Vitae but in less dramatic ways Montini will make it clear that his sexual theology will not deviate substantively from Pius XI's Casti Connubi and Pius XII's address to midwives.
 
Do we still see minor breakaway Catholic sects without Vatican II?

The reform of the liturgy would not be quite as sweeping. By the time Bagnini gets sacked we might have something very close to the OTL Missal of 1965 Mass. The most thorny issue would be religious liberty. On religious liberty I think Paul be very clear that while Error has No rights People in Error Do. Pius XII had been moving in this direction (yet anohther example of how he was a transitional Pope). This is why Lefebvre's draft document at the Second Vatican Council did not quote Pius XII but most St. Pius X who still clinged to a purer form of Error has No Rights. I could see Pope Paul embracing something a lot closer to John Courtney Murray and this might still drive Lefebvre into schism.

One other thought is Hans Kung is less likely to become prominent. He had been fairly obscure until the council where he suddenly blossomed towards the end. Rahner on the hand would be the most prominent theologian of the more liberal wing of New Theology. There is a very good chance that Ratzinger does not move to the right as much as he did OTL which started with his joining von Balthasar's Communio post council.
 
the mass would still be Tridentine but in the vernacular, facing the altar, and simplified rubrics. Externally it'd look pretty much the same as before.


A mass in the vernacular facing the altar and with simplified rubrics simply is not Tridentine... Its a simplified Novus Ordo Missae (i guess... i am not a Catholic so forgive any potential ignorance)
One other point would be that Montini would have had a long Papacy like Pius's XII (1939-1958 aka 19 years) and if he dies as OTL he would be Pope for 20 years... So i think that Cardinals tired from Papal longevity wouldnt elect the young (by Papal standards) Cardinal Luciani nor the young sporty fit Cardinal Wojtyla as one of his successors but rather an elder Cardinal as transitional Pope i guess... After all there is an old Roman proverb saying "after a fat Pope a thin Pope"...
Who do u think would be Pope Montini's successor if he died as OTL in 1978 after 20 years in the Papal Throne?
 
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