WI: Aranda plan, Bourbon america, with a twist

archaeogeek

Banned
So the theory, at its base: the Aranda plan was an attempt to convince the spanish monarch (iirc Carlos III) to divide the spanish colonies between his sons. I'm thinking, however, of a later POD. And a "Lorraine-Tuscany-Poland" type twist.

IOTL, I can see a number of issues to this:
- It confirms the primacy of the French branch of the house of Bourbon in the family compact (Spain, if it keeps only the Indies, has about 13 million people - 11 in Europe, 1,5 in Asia, 0,5 in the Carribean; while the four viceroyalties have about 14 million at independence from what I can cobble up together for data); France at the time is both wealthier per capita and has 29 million people, although it has the smallest colonies of the lot, I'd be generous to assume they even add up to a million at this point (a few indian outposts, Senegal, which at the time is a limited to a slaving station in the suburbs of Dakar, a large part of the west indies and the Mascarines with a few insular dependencies like the Seychelles at the time).
- It leads to relatively smaller, weaker countries (although the kingdoms of New Spain/Mexico and New Grenade would be roughly equal in population and size to the US until the second quarter of the 19th century)
- The family compact now needs to manage to political interests of 6 kingdoms (and Parma) instead of just 3 (and Parma).

A quick look at the late 18th century Bourbon family tree gives me only a few suitable candidates (and I am suitably traumatized, too...)
From Carlos IV's children, the only suitable men at the time of the french revolution are Ferdinand VII (lol, suitable), the count of Molina (same as Ferdinand VII, it's the Carlist Carlos) and the duke of Cadix (I actually know nothing about the Bourbon-Cadix branch).

That means that in terms of suitability, there needs to be a long hard look elsewhere, as I doubt Carlos will send the prince of Asturia to the Indies, first of which because there is no way Carlos III will trust him with a crown of his own that comes with actual political power until he dies.

The only daughter who is still alive at that point is queen consort of Sicily, so that's not an option either. In Sicily, all the children of Ferdinand I are too young. Ferdinand of Bourbon-Parma has the same problem, his children are both too young and most of them die young. This leads to my twist: the house of Bourbon did include a third country under its wing.

The Aranda plan called for 4 kingdoms: Spain, New Spain/Mexico, New Grenade and Peru. It makes mild sense when you consider that Rio de la Plata ends up cutting Peru in two (unless of course Upper Peru is transfered back, in which case RdlP only has the population of Tuscany but still a vast territory, while Peru now has the population of mainland Portugal; it might be workable, though, or alternately Rio de la Plata split up between its four audiencias as duchies but then I'd be fishing for cadet branches as far back as Bourbon-Busset, lol so probably not).

Three crowns means you have to look in France already, unless you slash the duchy of Parma (would the duke really say yes to moving out of Europe, even for a much larger and potentially much wealthier crown?). The other options looking in France are either princes du Sang (Orléans, Condé, Conti; and there is a "légitimée" house which in theory will not get the crown, Penthièvre; of those, Conti went extinct in 1814 and there is no indication that the 80 years old prince de Conti will start having kids soon at the time of the revolution; Orléans is firmly on the revolutionary side, Condé only really went extinct because the last duke of Enghien was executed, leaving only his grandfather alive, but who knows if he would have had heirs; Penthièvre's children almost all died before him, except for one of his daughters, so transferring an american colony to him means, assuming OTL lines of descent, that the colony ends up being to Philippe; he was already 60 when he was executed, too). The brothers of Louis XVI have a similar problem as all the other french branches of the house of Bourbon, low fertility (Provence had no issue, Artois had two sons though).

My WI assumes a revolution-ish POD; now, one question on which I'm not sure; in the 1770s, I know the french foreign service saw Spain as a bit of a problem at times but was still content with the family compact. How close would the two countries have to be for a resurrection of the Aranda plan to go so far as to consider french cadet lines (say, the young duke of Enghien gets New Grenade)? How could it change things for, say, Haiti's independence during the revolution with proper permanent naval forces in the region (I know at least Cartagena de las Indias is almost unaffected by the hurricane season)?

I also wonder how badly would things have to go in Europe for a situation like happened in the Polish succession to happen, with a minor colony (Santo Domingo and Puerto Rico? or RdlP?) being given to the french heir to the throne with the understanding that he's now basically a pawn in the great game? Would a Bernadotte premier consul (ooooh pretty butterflies!) help have a more stable consulate that doesn't go on a conquering spree, thus cementing the fact that there will either be a french republic or a "House of Bernadotte" in the near future?

And then you get the unfinished quarrels: the Maynas region was transferred to Peru in 1810 (Tumbes much earlier), and peru has competing claims in the Asuay; both kingdoms thus have claims on each other. Mexico and New Grenade also have mutual claims over the Mosquito coast and Costa Rica; solve them by tidying up the borders? (Costa Rica to New Grenade, Mosquito to Mexico (population is almost the same in 1800, they're both marginal regions), while Peru and New Grenada go for SQAB?

Competing canals?

How likely is a Carlos I of Mexico to end up before a firing squad? :p

Who is this newbie who dares post walls of text threads on joining? ;)
 
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Mexico and New Grenade also have mutual claims over the Mosquito coast and Costa Rica; solve them by tidying up the borders? (Costa Rica to New Grenade, Mosquito to Mexico (population is almost the same in 1800, they're both marginal regions), while Peru and New Grenada go for SQAB?

I know there's a million and one things I could comment on here (very good post, by the way) but I'll pick out the one I'm personally most interested in: the Mosquito Coast. Just wondering why a division of the colonies into Kingdoms would actually involve the awarding of the Mosquito Coast (unless you meant as a kind of symbolic hand-over). The Coast, though admittedly claimed by Spain still, was very much in British hands at this point, with a formalised Protectorate over the Miskito tribe existing and the Miskito dominant enough in the region that the problem couldn't just go away by the Spanish attempting to incite another tribe to weaken them so the Spanish could roll in. The Mosquito Coast wouldn't go anywhere: it would stay British. In fact more likely the Protectorate would end up being recognised by whichever Kingdom claimed the area, since independent South American colonies means the inevitable eventual opening up of that land to British trade, and British trade means vital money for the new Kingdoms.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
I know there's a million and one things I could comment on here (very good post, by the way) but I'll pick out the one I'm personally most interested in: the Mosquito Coast. Just wondering why a division of the colonies into Kingdoms would actually involve the awarding of the Mosquito Coast (unless you meant as a kind of symbolic hand-over). The Coast, though admittedly claimed by Spain still, was very much in British hands at this point, with a formalised Protectorate over the Miskito tribe existing and the Miskito dominant enough in the region that the problem couldn't just go away by the Spanish attempting to incite another tribe to weaken them so the Spanish could roll in. The Mosquito Coast wouldn't go anywhere: it would stay British. In fact more likely the Protectorate would end up being recognised by whichever Kingdom claimed the area, since independent South American colonies means the inevitable eventual opening up of that land to British trade, and British trade means vital money for the new Kingdoms.

I actually completely forgot the british protectorate, which iirc ended mostly because Britain lost interest in the region. I was thinking a non-republican Nicaragua might be more enclined to recognize a "principality of Mosquito" on its coasts (causing more issues). I also didn't realize it ended so late (1859). Or not. Admittedly the protectorate status means Mosquito might be not quite Britain, though, true. Alternately "a similar SQAB" where both split up Costa Rica could exist? No symbolic handover, New Grenade keeps its authority over the local islands (especially since at the time IIRC Mexico's portions of the Isthmus are part of the province of Nicaragua (the Guanacaste region, which I think at the time included Heredia and Alajuela)), and both act friendly with Britain over this.

I also forgot the duke of Normandy/dauphin in 1789 and nominally Louis XVII, the only problem here is that he was, of course, still a kid when he died in 1795 although a different directoire and arrangement in the Americas might lead to his liberation/escape (although I don't think there's quite enough butterflies thrown out to make this happen), maybe with Artois and Provence trying as regents for the hypothetical "Bourbon-France in exile" kingdom in the Indies, with the obviously bad results that would have :p

I'm not sure this scenario does much to butterfly away the Louisiana purchase, but it could probably end up being a show of goodwill between the US and Mexico (or whoever inherits the place), and help significantly kickstart their economies (although lack of a local middle class is still a problem and it's probably not early enough to get it developing before maybe the 1820s). Of course whether Jefferson would actually be fine with bankrolling the american monarchs the same way he did Napoleon (this despite thinking he betrayed the revolution) would remain to be seen.

(EDIT: I'm feeling like cobbling together a quick "A second century of Bourbon rule in the Americas" covering the period from 1800 to 1900; some of my butterflies will probably be modified; I'm tempted to have Bernadotte get rid of Bonaparte by giving him the kingdom of Italy for shit and giggles, since I'm assuming the italian campaign does go mostly as OTL which puts Bonaparte president of the Cisalpine republic, with a term lasting until 1807; it could likely be expanded with a bunch of territories here and there but I'm assuming a France more in the mood for some conciliation, and that = huge butterflies (an entertaining one: without a house or Bernadotte sitting on the swedish throne, Scandinavia might actually end up united))
 
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