WI: Aragon Survives

Seeing how my last thread failed, I might as well ask again and make it a more vague question. What if instead of falling under personal union with Castille and eventually being united into Spain, Aragon remained its own power? Would it continue on as a thalassocracy and what effects would this have on, say, the Italian Wars?
 
I think that Aragon would suffer as Italian city-states from the fall of Egyptian monopole on indian spices. Once Portugal and Castille able to make it THEIR trade, Aragon would loss slowly his maritime power in the same fashion than Venice.

Eventually, it would be puppetized by one of his neighbours, Castille or France.
 
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