To add more...
Imagine Syria on steroids, with villages being relocated and possibly clandestine gas attacks. Problem is, Saddam's regime will be much stronger and the resistance less existent, so there is going to be a lot more of Hussein paranoia doing damage than actual civil war fighting.
So, with the given idea of an Al Gore '00, the actual causes of the Arab Spring are still there (food prices, high unemployement, repressive western backed regimes). However, some things will be different. No 2nd Iraq War means no extremist fighting and training in that conflict. Eastern Syria was basically under militant islamist control even prior to the 'Arab Spring' IOTL but would not be in this one.
I see things going like this -
So, Syria is likely more stable in this TL, maybe with NATO and UN supporting the Syrian protestors earlier because there is no jihadist strain to it. Al-Assad is peacefully removed, but there is actual little reform. The repressed and reform-minded of Iraq do the same, but are brutally crushed by Saddam and Co. Worries about Iranian and Yemeni/Saudi jihadist powers in the opposition leave NATO, US etc. hesistant to support them.
Most of the repession happens in the countryside, where villages and towns thought to be supporting militant camps are 'relocated'.
The protestors encamp on Great Celebrations Square. Soon, video footage of tanks rolling through unarmed crowds under the Swords of Qādisīyah become as iconic as any from Cairo of Beijing years earlier. The intervention begins with a No-Fly Zone but expands like in Libya. Problem is, after years of succesful repression and elimation, is there enough Iraqi opposition to support, or will troops need to be landed to stop a potential massacre?
Wild card in this scenario is the Arab League, who could either scapegoat Hussein or circle the wagons.