There are a number of PODs here.
A violent end to apartheid is relatively easy to get I think.
Let Constand Viljoen's violent coup go ahead; let the Shell House massacre spiral out of control; let the tensions around the Boipatong or Bisho massacres explode; let Chris Hani's death be a flashpoint for war.
Those who think it would be a short war are sorely mistaken though.
The Rhodesian War went on for 15 years, and that was with less than whites and a less well-armed military than South Africa.
And partition is an option, but remember, most of South Africa's mineral wealth is in the north, the white government would be desperate to hold onto that. Under a partition agreement, perhaps the two sides would be sensible enough to share the revenue from the mines, but I'm not too sure about that.
If war had erupted, South Africa's white population would be far smaller than it is now, perhaps 2 million rather than 4.5 million. This may have some interesting butterflies for other countries. A South African Civil War would also have some serious implications for the Southern African region. Expect (worse) instability in Zimbabwe and Mozambique and lower economic growth for Botswana and Namibia. These countries will also be the home to a large number of refugees in all likelihood.
A violent end to apartheid is relatively easy to get I think.
Let Constand Viljoen's violent coup go ahead; let the Shell House massacre spiral out of control; let the tensions around the Boipatong or Bisho massacres explode; let Chris Hani's death be a flashpoint for war.
Those who think it would be a short war are sorely mistaken though.
The Rhodesian War went on for 15 years, and that was with less than whites and a less well-armed military than South Africa.
And partition is an option, but remember, most of South Africa's mineral wealth is in the north, the white government would be desperate to hold onto that. Under a partition agreement, perhaps the two sides would be sensible enough to share the revenue from the mines, but I'm not too sure about that.
If war had erupted, South Africa's white population would be far smaller than it is now, perhaps 2 million rather than 4.5 million. This may have some interesting butterflies for other countries. A South African Civil War would also have some serious implications for the Southern African region. Expect (worse) instability in Zimbabwe and Mozambique and lower economic growth for Botswana and Namibia. These countries will also be the home to a large number of refugees in all likelihood.