What if, instead of choosing to trust the Americans, General Antonio Luna manages to convince Aguinaldo and his cabinet that the Americans are here to replace the Spanish and in one quick move, attacks the Americans stationed in Manila.
What happens next?
Luna would need to neutralize Dewey's Navy in port at Manila Bay. Would have needed someone from inside to open the Intramuros gates. For both the Navy and Intramuros, both would be special ops mission followed by a full scale attack.
End result of the battle, would either be sunk or captured Dewey Fleet, roughly around 15,000 U.S. POWS.
The reaction in US Politics would either swing more to imperialism due to the act of the Filipinos or swing it to anti imperialism due to casualties.
If the US continued war, it needs to gather more resources than it did OTL since it would be charging thru the beaches instead of unloading of troops unmolested.
The US would win the war if it is willing to pay the price of losing hundreds of thousands of casualties. Absent of that zeal like otl WW2, I suspect a peace treaty in favor of the Philippines.
