The US was greatly against this OTL, and I think for this to succeed the following the German colonies in the Pacific need to be given to the US. This puts any Pacific aggression by Japan greatly in check.
Yeah.
Much more likely is that Japan follows Britain's line in China- a gradual scaling back of direct intervention, thereby maximising access to the vast new market of a modernising China.
No Washington Naval Treaty
The US battleship program is completed.
it's difficult to see how the treaty could survive the Historical Japanese actions in China, however if it did then Japan and the U.K. Could find themselves at war against Germany and the Soviet Uniion in 1939 ...