WI: Anglo-Japanese Alliance never terminates
- Thread starter Ellie
- Start date
The main question would be how it remains active - is it due to Japan taking the same path as our timeline with the UK acquiescing and sacrificing China for expediencies sake, which is going to make relations with the US and others potentially awkward, or is it due to the civilian government retaining control so no there's no military extremism or adventures like the Mukden incident?
If it hadn't been for Canada and Australia pressuring Britain into dropping the alliance it might have lasted. Britain found Japan to be a convenient ally and their interests in the Pacific were generally the same since Japanese markets could just lap up the post-war slack and take advantage of other markets.
Militarily Japan had the lions share of the ships and soldiers in the Pacific so it made sense to not alienate the Japanese Empire.
If the Taisho Democracy hangs on then there's a chance for it to last, and if Japan and England can work out some favorable trade agreements then you might see some really close Anglo-Japanese relations. England might even give Japan a free hand in Manchuria (if only to counter the Russians).
NothingNow
Banned
Oh yes. Immediately after WW1 Japan was pretty flush with cash from war loans to the other Entente powers, and arms sales to France, etc.
That said, delaying the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake to around Mid-Afternoon would probably help keep the Taisho-era economic boom going a bit longer, just by avoiding the conditions that led to the massive conflagration.
Probably. That'd take concerted work from the Japanese and British governments though, or the US managing to aggravate both of them enough that they're willing to overlook their comparatively minor issues.
Better treatment of the Japanese delegation at Versailles, and a healthier head of that delegation would go a long way there. Pushing for the IJN to get full parity with the USN and RN post-war would also be a very good option (particularly if the IJN and RN collaborate on the Eight-Eight plan vessels, so that British designers get some experience while the economy recovers enough to support a renewed building programme,) as it would avoid splitting the IJN politically, which is very bad at this point.
A free-er hand in Manchuria is also good of course, and having more junior IJA officers busy out in the field will keep them from getting too many odd ideas.
David S Poepoe
Banned
The Japanese had way too much of a free hand in Manchuria and it was because of IJA officers being in the field that caused all the problems. Had the British any good reason to have maintained the AJA they would have found them tied to an ally that they could not have controlled. However, the Japanese would have learned that if they had become too aggressive they would have found themselves alone.
There would have been some difficulties with conflicting commercial interests in China and that would have been the end of the AJA.
David S Poepoe
Banned
The British Admiralty identified the Japanese as the next major rival to Britain by the 1920s and began withholding various technical reports and information from the Japanese by 1922.
Bumping EC and NN's excellent points.
Simon's concern- "Well what kind of Japan is the UK in bed with?" is also quite valid, tho I think Taisho democracy would be a preferable partner.
For that to work, as EC said, Versailles had to work out better for the Japanese AND the Kanto earthquake have a better response.
It's a massive shame IMO that Taisho died as he did. He might've been learning disabled by modern lights but thoroughly xenophilic and progressive in his views.
He actually learned Korean and thought Koreans had a culture worth respecting. If he'd hung around a bit longer to really put his stamp on things, might have effected a much more benevolent Japanese rule over Korea or some kind of autonomy w/in the Japanese Empire, electing members to the Diet, etc.
Him living a decade longer/having a capable successor and the Diet getting enough of a capable civil government together MIGHT have butterflied Japan's slide into militarism.
An Anglo-Japanese alliance guaranteeing trade in the Pacific would help Japan prosper and develop economically as well.
I've banged on about how IOTL the Japanese military learned all the wrong lessons from the Russo-Japanese War and WWI that prompted their startling missteps in WWII.
They got used to fighting in backwaters against folks on the back foot up to that point and it made them feel a lot more froggy about taking on Western powers later on.
A significant butterfly would be the IJA participating in either the Eastern Front's war of maneuver or the meatgrinder in France would prompted a lot of internal rethinking re: banzai charges and elan substituting for proper logistics and firepower when fighting the Germans, Ottomans, and Austrians.
OR they could've emulated the Italian Army and fought hard, lost too many people needlessly, and veterans had even more reason to hate the folks in charge.
YMMDV.
Also, IF the IJA is heavily involved (100K+) troops on the Western Front, American, British, and European attitudes would change drastically about Japanese capabilities and the wisdom of keeping them onside, so hopefully, Versailles is less of a clusterfuck as far as Japan earning and getting their props.
IOTL the IJN did splendidly in WWI wrapping up the Pacific German cruiser squadrons and in support of various Allied ops in the Mediterranean, but that situation was well in hand as far as the British and french were concerned. IDK what else the IJN could've done- escort convoys across the Atlantic and done a heroic stand against U-boats trying to torpedo a liner or s/t to get some good press going.
Simon's concern- "Well what kind of Japan is the UK in bed with?" is also quite valid, tho I think Taisho democracy would be a preferable partner.
For that to work, as EC said, Versailles had to work out better for the Japanese AND the Kanto earthquake have a better response.
It's a massive shame IMO that Taisho died as he did. He might've been learning disabled by modern lights but thoroughly xenophilic and progressive in his views.
He actually learned Korean and thought Koreans had a culture worth respecting. If he'd hung around a bit longer to really put his stamp on things, might have effected a much more benevolent Japanese rule over Korea or some kind of autonomy w/in the Japanese Empire, electing members to the Diet, etc.
Him living a decade longer/having a capable successor and the Diet getting enough of a capable civil government together MIGHT have butterflied Japan's slide into militarism.
An Anglo-Japanese alliance guaranteeing trade in the Pacific would help Japan prosper and develop economically as well.
I've banged on about how IOTL the Japanese military learned all the wrong lessons from the Russo-Japanese War and WWI that prompted their startling missteps in WWII.
They got used to fighting in backwaters against folks on the back foot up to that point and it made them feel a lot more froggy about taking on Western powers later on.
A significant butterfly would be the IJA participating in either the Eastern Front's war of maneuver or the meatgrinder in France would prompted a lot of internal rethinking re: banzai charges and elan substituting for proper logistics and firepower when fighting the Germans, Ottomans, and Austrians.
OR they could've emulated the Italian Army and fought hard, lost too many people needlessly, and veterans had even more reason to hate the folks in charge.
YMMDV.
Also, IF the IJA is heavily involved (100K+) troops on the Western Front, American, British, and European attitudes would change drastically about Japanese capabilities and the wisdom of keeping them onside, so hopefully, Versailles is less of a clusterfuck as far as Japan earning and getting their props.
IOTL the IJN did splendidly in WWI wrapping up the Pacific German cruiser squadrons and in support of various Allied ops in the Mediterranean, but that situation was well in hand as far as the British and french were concerned. IDK what else the IJN could've done- escort convoys across the Atlantic and done a heroic stand against U-boats trying to torpedo a liner or s/t to get some good press going.
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