WI: Anglo-German Alliance pre-1914?

Wow. I want to thank you all for your thoughtful and extensive responses. I can see I have ALOT of work to do before i can even begin to consider this Timeline. :D

I was thinking of trying to throw a Second(or modified First) R-J War into the mix, and using Austro-Hungarian interests in Tientsin and an opened Caucasus to Austro-Hungarian Trade to create a situation whereby Russia found itself forging economic links with the Austro-Hungarians, with Russia's gratitude for Austro-Hungarian economic(and possibly diplomatic) intervention in the conflict leading to stronger ties, which are capitalized upon for a secret agreement to create spheres of influence in the Ottoman Empire. Convoluted and very unlikely, as i'm sure you'll agree.

I was, however, ignoring the influence of Pan-Slavism. Perhaps i could do something with Montenegro's aggressive expansionism alienating Russia or something. I don't know much about the Balkan Wars or the influence of Slavic nationalism on A-H/Russia, and I can see that is an area I'm going to need to swat up on to make an A-H/Russian Alliance plausible.

1866 seems a little early for a POD, and i'm not so sure about the impact of a War with Germany in the 1870/80s. It would probably lead to the re-establishment of some form of Polish state, if only as a rump protectorate. (Assuming the Germans are victorious, which is a safe assumption imo)

As for a coming World War...if Pan-Slavism/Irredentism is being downplayed/neutered/isolated as a force, then its pretty much up in the air what the casus belli for the Great War would be. An Arab Revolt, perhaps, which could complicate the spheres of influence of the Great Powers (Britain in Egypt, Russia possibly gaining influence even further south than Armenia, depending on the convoluted Ottoman spheres-of-influence agreement proposed above).

Finally, on the subject of an Isolated Germany...again, it depends on the POD and wether Willhelm's mercurial temperament in regards to diplomacy(especially with the British) can be trusted. Stevep, your probably right about the Ottoman's siding with the Anglo-Germans, but that means scrapping them as a "unifying interest" for the Austro-Russian Alliance.

Once again, I thank you all for your help. It seems i have alot left to learn about the intricacies of early-20th century european politics...(thank god i'm not trying to work in an earlier period...I dread to think of the mess we'd make trying to make an 1820s Austro-Russian Alliance....:/)
 
If you go for a pre-1900 POD then I would suggest this POD https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=82245&highlight=boulanger&page=2

Basically it boils down to Germany was going to intervene in France if Boulanger were to launch a coup. This coincided with a period when France was (potentially) capable of beating Germany in a one-on-one fight. So lets say that Boulanger goes for the coup, and France beats Germany when Germany attempts to intervene.

Now at this point France is on their post-Versailles (the first one) colonial buying spree. Their snapping up real estate in Indo-China and Africa, and generally making the UK feel uncomfortable. This discomfort OTL was eased because Kaiser Wilhelm II was a moron (there are other opinions, but this is mine) and Germany actually was much more of a threat than France.

But in this TL, France, which is making the UK uncomfortable already on the colonial front, now makes their headache even worse. The UK was committed to not letting one power dominate Europe. France has just beaten Germany, and Russia (UK's other major colonial rival) is drifting into France's orbit. So France is viewed as the main threat to the UK, as the dominant threat in Europe and overseas.

Now the Germans will need to focus on the Army and the homefront in the wake of the loss to the French. I don't think that you will see any German attempts to build up a fleet to challenge the UK. The UK will see Germany as the counterbalance to the Franco-Russian alliance in Europe, allowing the UK to actively oppose France and Russia overseas (in Africa and Asia). This alliance will not be written down, but it will be acknowledged by the Germans.

The UK will thus be actively opposing the Franco-Russian alliance, while Germany builds itself up into a military powerhouse. The coming World War (and it is coming just as surely as it did OTL) will result in a very unpleasant world for the UK. The Anglo-German alliance will stand triumphant over the Franco-Russian alliance, and the Germans will be totally dominant in Europe.

Matthais

Interesting scenario and quite possible I suspect. However if France did win a 2nd war with Germany, do doubt getting A-L back and possibly weakening the German empire in other ways I don't think it would necessarily end up the dominant power in Europe, even if the Anglo-German alliance won the next war. Germany is going to be put through the grinder and could end up in a position very similar to Prussia after the 7 Years War, technically victorious and having made some territorial gains but very strained and lucky to still be in one peace. Especially if including Vextra's condition that Austria is on the other side. Find it very, very difficult to see Germany pulling through that OK even if you have a Tory government in Britain introducing conscription some years before and hence being able to throw quite a large army into the battle almost immediately.

Steve
 
Wow. I want to thank you all for your thoughtful and extensive responses. I can see I have ALOT of work to do before i can even begin to consider this Timeline. :D

I was thinking of trying to throw a Second(or modified First) R-J War into the mix, and using Austro-Hungarian interests in Tientsin and an opened Caucasus to Austro-Hungarian Trade to create a situation whereby Russia found itself forging economic links with the Austro-Hungarians, with Russia's gratitude for Austro-Hungarian economic(and possibly diplomatic) intervention in the conflict leading to stronger ties, which are capitalized upon for a secret agreement to create spheres of influence in the Ottoman Empire. Convoluted and very unlikely, as I’m sure you'll agree.

I think this is the big difficulty in the TL you propose. We have had scenario's where the R-J war brings in both allies, France and the UK respectively, especially after the Dogger Bank incident. That could easily poison relations between Britain and the continental powers but splitting up Germany and Austria I see as very difficult. Only thing I can think of is something were reaction to Franz Ferdinand’s planned Triple kingdom causes some sort of crisis say. That German elements in Austria, unwilling to extend power to the various Slavic people's, possibly plot a coup or assassination. Possibly also some link to someone high up in Germany who offers them support and the plot is exposed, causing a big scandal. You might see feeling in Austria deeply divided but a strong mistrust of Germany, including by many German Austrians loyal to the dynasty. It might also divide Austria enough that their involvement in the major conflict is weakened enough for Germany to survive as with all 3 other great continental powers against it, things would be very bleak for it.

I was, however, ignoring the influence of Pan-Slavism. Perhaps i could do something with Montenegro's aggressive expansionism alienating Russia or something. I don't know much about the Balkan Wars or the influence of Slavic nationalism on A-H/Russia, and I can see that is an area I'm going to need to swat up on to make an A-H/Russian Alliance plausible.

Pan-Slavic and Pan Orthodox feelings existed and were useful tools for Russia in this period. It might be that under different circumstances they would want to downplay such factors, say to get better relations with Austria for operations against Germany, but I think it would be difficult to really achieve.

1866 seems a little early for a POD, and i'm not so sure about the impact of a War with Germany in the 1870/80s. It would probably lead to the re-establishment of some form of Polish state, if only as a rump protectorate. (Assuming the Germans are victorious, which is a safe assumption imo)

I would disagree on a German victory at this time. With both Austria [under the scenario that Atreus was proposing] and France bitter about their earlier defeats I could see Germany being mobbed and if lucky forced to make terms.

As for a coming World War...if Pan-Slavism/Irredentism is being downplayed/neutered/isolated as a force, then its pretty much up in the air what the casus belli for the Great War would be. An Arab Revolt, perhaps, which could complicate the spheres of influence of the Great Powers (Britain in Egypt, Russia possibly gaining influence even further south than Armenia, depending on the convoluted Ottoman spheres-of-influence agreement proposed above).

While I think the coup/assassination against Franz Ferdinand, especially if high German officials were implemented is unlikely, it could be a highly suitable trigger for the sort of war you suggest. Britain would be forced to support Germany to try and maintain some balance on the continent while France and Russia both seek to resolve matters with Germany. Otherwise you could have some colonial clash in Africa or Asia, sparked by conflict between Britain and France or Germany. Or even, if you did manage to get the Ottomans on the side of the Triple Alliance and Italy on the German side an equivalent of the latter's invasion of Libya with France intervening to help the Ottomans say. Or even if the Russians are playing down Pan-Slavic propaganda, the Balkans are still going to be a hot-bed of conflict. Some equivalent of the Balkans wars between the minor powers and a couple of major powers feeling vital interests are threatened!

Basically its not difficult to find a situation which might led to war with the tensions of the time. Also with the alliance system and recent wars having seen quick victories to the power that mobilises quickest and most completely all the continental powers are nervous about missing the bus. While a Germany threaten by all 3 major neighbours might be prone to very rash military planning.


Finally, on the subject of an Isolated Germany...again, it depends on the POD and wether Willhelm's mercurial temperament in regards to diplomacy(especially with the British) can be trusted. Stevep, your probably right about the Ottoman's siding with the Anglo-Germans, but that means scrapping them as a "unifying interest" for the Austro-Russian Alliance.

You actually had them as a unifying interest in terms of being a target for a carve up by the two powers. However doubt if this is likely as Austria is too weak I suspect, and has relatively little common border, while Russia has no direct border except in the Caucasus region. As such they both need to get through the small states between them and the empire 1st. Also even the Hungarians seemed to have agreed that the last thing the Austrian empire needed was more Slavic subjects. I could see Russian designs on Constantinople and influence in the Balkans being an alternative trigger for a major war but I don’t think the Austrians would have major interests in the Ottoman empire itself as its too far away from them. [With the exception of the historical annexation of Bosnia, which was a dubious enough addition as it was].


Once again, I thank you all for your help. It seems i have alot left to learn about the intricacies of early-20th century european politics...(thank god i'm not trying to work in an earlier period...I dread to think of the mess we'd make trying to make an 1820s Austro-Russian Alliance....:/)

There’s a hell of a lot there. I'm by no means an expert but have read a fair bit as the period is one of many that interests me. Also strong opinion in many areas on various matters by people. Actually an ~1820 Austro-Russian alliance would have markedly more basis as they might find more in common at that time. I think from about 1900 onwards Austria is too weak and too tied to Germany for anything other than a major crisis to make it look elsewhere.

Steve
 
Matthais

Interesting scenario and quite possible I suspect. However if France did win a 2nd war with Germany, do doubt getting A-L back and possibly weakening the German empire in other ways I don't think it would necessarily end up the dominant power in Europe, even if the Anglo-German alliance won the next war. Germany is going to be put through the grinder and could end up in a position very similar to Prussia after the 7 Years War, technically victorious and having made some territorial gains but very strained and lucky to still be in one peace. Especially if including Vextra's condition that Austria is on the other side. Find it very, very difficult to see Germany pulling through that OK even if you have a Tory government in Britain introducing conscription some years before and hence being able to throw quite a large army into the battle almost immediately.

Steve

The whole point was not that France WAS the strongest power, simply that the threat France posed overseas had now (in the British mind) turned into a European threat.

The whole thing is that in order to get an Anglo-German alliance, the UK must not view Germany as the primary threat to European stability. If the French are viewed as the primary threat to European stability, then the UK must act to counteract that threat. In order to counteract the (in the British mind) French threat to European stability, an alliance with the Germans must be made. Family ties with the German Imperial family, and the total lack of colonial competition (Germany totally focused on internal development and the Army due to defeat by France in 2nd Franco-German War) make the alliance easy.
 
The whole point was not that France WAS the strongest power, simply that the threat France posed overseas had now (in the British mind) turned into a European threat.

The whole thing is that in order to get an Anglo-German alliance, the UK must not view Germany as the primary threat to European stability. If the French are viewed as the primary threat to European stability, then the UK must act to counteract that threat. In order to counteract the (in the British mind) French threat to European stability, an alliance with the Germans must be made. Family ties with the German Imperial family, and the total lack of colonial competition (Germany totally focused on internal development and the Army due to defeat by France in 2nd Franco-German War) make the alliance easy.

Matthais

Sorry, loose language on my part meant I think you mis-understood what I said. I was replying to your section saying

The UK will thus be actively opposing the Franco-Russian alliance, while Germany builds itself up into a military powerhouse. The coming World War (and it is coming just as surely as it did OTL) will result in a very unpleasant world for the UK. The Anglo-German alliance will stand triumphant over the Franco-Russian alliance, and the Germans will be totally dominant in Europe.

Hence what I meant to say was that, if Germany lost to France after a Boulanger crisis, losing at least A-L in the process, then fought a war with France and Russia and possibly Austria as well then it, i.e. Germany, might end up on the winning side technically but doubt it will be strong enough to dominate Europe, at least for a while. As it will be too exhausted by the struggle for survival.

Agree that France does not need to be stronger than Germany for Britain to ally with the latter. As you say it [and allies] need to seem to the Brits as the major threat to Britain's interests, which is a subtly different point.

Sorry about the confusion.

Steve
 
Hence what I meant to say was that, if Germany lost to France after a Boulanger crisis, losing at least A-L in the process, then fought a war with France and Russia and possibly Austria as well then it, i.e. Germany, might end up on the winning side technically but doubt it will be strong enough to dominate Europe, at least for a while. As it will be too exhausted by the struggle for survival.

Oh I don't know . . . I think that under this kind of a situation the Austrian Empire will gravitate toward the Anglo-German axis, however, I think Austria probably will end up somewhat alone and neutral.

In OTL I think the Austrian alliance was largely a result of Wilhelm II's bad foreign policy choices. Austria didn't bring much to the table in terms of being an ally. It was sprawling, multi-national, and lacked direct control of its territory (the whole Hungarian part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire).

So if Austria isn't with Germany, then it certainly can't be against Germany. The Hapsburg main political base was germanic Austria. This base is not going to support a war against Germany. The best they might be able to get is a somewhat hostile policy, but even there its going to be tough for the Hapsburgs to stand against Germany.

So then what happens to Austria? Well, I think they will be careful not to piss anyone off. This means that there won't be any Austrian annexation of Bosnia, probably the Austrians will (as strongly as international politics allow) support the territorial integrity of the Ottoman Empire. When the alt-WWI happens between the Anglo-Germans and the Franco-Russians the Austrians will be very careful not to piss either the Russians or the Germans off.

Speaking of the Anglo-German (Double Alliance?) versus the Franco-Russians (Double Entente?) I think that this alliance system, plus the experience of the 2nd Franco-Prussian War, will probably make for a much different German war strategy. In that last war the Germans launched headlong into what they expected to be a repeat of the 1st Franco-Prussian War. They were defeated, cut-off, and humiliated in short order by a superior French Army. This defeat is going to force the German General Staff to re-imagine how to fight the next war. The Russian alliance with the French is going to swiftly follow the French victory, so this is going to quickly be taken into account as well. I expect that with the two-front war, and the French victory, both in mind, the German General Staff is going to create a very conservative strategy.

The Germans will expect attacks from both East and West, so their going to create large fortifications on both borders, making sure that Germany can defend itself. After these initial forays are defeated the German Army will then begin to advance. The German strategy is going to rely largely on what happens post-enemy offensive.

Basically, the Germans are going to be able to maintain this kind of defensive posture almost indefinitely. The Russians are unorganized and the French are undermanned. With the British as their ally the Germans will have no problem with supplies the way they did OTL. Under these conditions the Russians will probably end up folding as per OTL, and the French, having launched a stupid attack on Germany (possibly through Belgium) smash themselves on German defenses. Meanwhile their colonial empire is conquered by the British and their naval fleet (probably built up as the Franco-British colonial rivalry heated up in ATL) is either kept in port or sunk is an attempt to break-out from port. The French OTL did have a large sub fleet, which in this ATL will probably still exist, and will be used to attempt to cut off the British as per OTL.

Under this alliance system, what does the United States do? The French are the ones waging unrestricted submarine warfare, but the British are mostly uninvolved in the land war in Europe. With the Russians in this war against the British and Germans, I'm going to guess that East Asia is much more active ATL. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance will certainly kick in, and the Japanese will be gobbling up as much of Russian-controlled China as possible. The Pacific will be safe for shipping, as the United States supplies the Japanese war effort. In Europe, American war material is probably being sold to both the British and Germans.

Do the British send in a BEF to Germany? Do the British try some kind of D-Day operation? Maybe . . . the Brits focus on the colonial war, which extends into taking over French Algeria and Corsica, from which a threatened 2nd front (with possible Italian assistance) could be launched?

Agree that France does not need to be stronger than Germany for Britain to ally with the latter. As you say it [and allies] need to seem to the Brits as the major threat to Britain's interests, which is a subtly different point.

Sorry about the confusion.

Steve
 

NomadicSky

Banned
An Anglo-German Alliance isn't that out there. Prussia and the UK were long time friends France was a long time enemy. WWI was kinda 1984ish if you think about it.
 
An Anglo-German Alliance isn't that out there. Prussia and the UK were long time friends France was a long time enemy. WWI was kinda 1984ish if you think about it.

An Anglo-German Alliance is pretty far out there since we are not talking about some fragmented kingdom like Prussia any more, we are talking about a unified people and booming industrial capability that will be rival Great Britain by the end of the 19th century.
 
Matthais

The basis of the scenario Vextra put forward was that you do get Austria joining the anti-German alliance. I admit that I think it unlikely unless you get something drastic. However with that things would be very bad for Germany.

Presuming Germany last a 2nd war with France in the 1880's and France then formed a close alliance with Russia, Germany would no doubt greatly re-think its position and tactics. Especially since it will be physically and materially weaker as at a minimum it will have lost A-L. This might make it far more defensive, which would be a good move for them. However their still in exactly the same position as OTL with a desire to defeat the enemy on one front before weight of numbers overwhelms they so they might still try for a quick victory on one front, probably against France. [Or possibly a limited offensive in the east to try and cut off the Polish salient, which contained a lot of resources.

Regardless of whether Germany takes a full defensive role or limited offensive, then presuming an alliance with Britain and Austria staying neutral I would expect the Anglo-German alliance to win. [Baring serious foul ups in organisation and operations]. However I still think, even with much wiser tactics, its going to be a meat grinder with a lot of losses on both sides, which for the allies will mean overwhelmingly the Germans. [One possible exception is that, with a British blockage, lacking Germany's chemical dominance and ammunition expenditure greatly exceeding expectations the entente powers could run short of ammo very quickly].

I would expect that Britain would have a BEF which would serve in Germany, probably on the western front against France. Given the isolation of Germany it would be a necessity, politically if not militarily.


Anyway, hope we’re not hijacking Vextra’s scenario too much.:eek:

Steve
 
Matthais

The basis of the scenario Vextra put forward was that you do get Austria joining the anti-German alliance. I admit that I think it unlikely unless you get something drastic. However with that things would be very bad for Germany.

The obvious POD would be that Prussia takes a pound of flesh from Austria after the Six Weeks' War. Say Wilhelm throws a particularly bad temper-tantrum and Bismarck decides that maybe getting Bohemia from the Austrians isn't such a bad idea.

So the Austrians are pissed off, and at the same time weaker when facing the Hungarians. Maybe the Austrians, having lost Bohemia, refuses the Hungarians demands, leading to another round of Magyar rebellion. The Russians decide to intervene for old times sake (and to demonstrate their military prowess after the massive and stunning demonstration the Prussians just put on) helping Austria crush the Magyars.

Franz Josef, old conservative that he is, now moves closer to the Russians. The Russians sponsor Balkan nationalism against the Ottomans, but in respect for their Austrians allies don't push the whole concept of Pan-Slavism quite so hard.

The Austrians are running a much more centralized state. They have lost Bohemia and their Italian possessions, and with Russian aid crushed the Magyars, so you have the German-speaking Hapsburg allied elite ruling the country. Unity and centralization are the main themes of Hapsburg rule, leading to the repression of ethnic nationalisms (especially Magyars- but even extending into arresting outspoken pan-German nationalist) and the imposition of steadily more authoritarian system. This more tightly controlled Austrian Empire is able to face Germany in a belligerant manner, backed up by its huge Russian ally.

Presuming Germany last a 2nd war with France in the 1880's and France then formed a close alliance with Russia, Germany would no doubt greatly re-think its position and tactics. Especially since it will be physically and materially weaker as at a minimum it will have lost A-L. This might make it far more defensive, which would be a good move for them. However their still in exactly the same position as OTL with a desire to defeat the enemy on one front before weight of numbers overwhelms they so they might still try for a quick victory on one front, probably against France. [Or possibly a limited offensive in the east to try and cut off the Polish salient, which contained a lot of resources.

With the Austrians involved in the war, I think that the Austrians would be the first order of business in this alt-WWI. They are the weakest and most available, plus the invasion and occupation of Austria will lead (in German war-planners minds) to the disintegration of the rest of the Empire. This disintegration will force the Russians to divert resources into the Austrian Empire, and could also upset Entente plans to bring Balkan players into the war (the disintegration being far too interesting to bother with other international adventures).

The Austrians being part of the Triple Entente (France, Russia, Austria) will also bring Italy into the Quadruple Alliance (Britain, Germany, Italy, Ottoman Empire). With Austria proper under German occupation the Italians will be free to try and make their wild revanchist claims to the Adriatic coast a reality.

Regardless of whether Germany takes a full defensive role or limited offensive, then presuming an alliance with Britain and Austria staying neutral I would expect the Anglo-German alliance to win. [Baring serious foul ups in organisation and operations]. However I still think, even with much wiser tactics, its going to be a meat grinder with a lot of losses on both sides, which for the allies will mean overwhelmingly the Germans. [One possible exception is that, with a British blockage, lacking Germany's chemical dominance and ammunition expenditure greatly exceeding expectations the entente powers could run short of ammo very quickly].

I would expect that Britain would have a BEF which would serve in Germany, probably on the western front against France. Given the isolation of Germany it would be a necessity, politically if not militarily.

With the isolation of Germany, and the very limited military options that she has (offensive on French being seen as too risky and offensive against Russia being seen as a black hole, Austria easy pickings but with the need for firm occupation of now unbridled ethnic violence (Slav on Slav, Magyar on Slav) means that other theaters are going to need to come into play.

I think that the Ottoman Empire becomes a big player. From Ottoman territory offensives into Russia can be launched- in the Caucaus Mts., and against Black Sea ports (Crimea re-dux perhaps?). I'm imagining Anglo-Ottoman forces launching these offensives, drawing off Russian troops, while the Germans invade into the Baltics in an attempt to get to St. Petersburg and perhaps force the Russians out of the war.

The French Front would be defended but generally left alone. The French don't really have the manpower to launch successful offensives of their own against German lines, and the bite of the British blockade should be felt. Once Austria and Russia are knocked out of the war, France will be put in a position of either fighting the Anglo-German-Italian combination, or submitting with minimum fighting on its own territory.

Anyway, hope we’re not hijacking Vextra’s scenario too much.:eek:

Steve

Hijack? Helpful suggestions . . .
 
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