WI: Andrew Jackson is court martialed in 1818.

Wow. That’s a really nice analysis of the situation. And like you say, very relevant to this situation.
Jackson is the big difference in this situation, but Calhoun also. He isn’t going to to get radicalize, due to having reason to be loyal to Monroe, at least for a little while longer.

What are your thoughts as to what Jackson would do? I’m a bit stuck on that. I’d appreciate any of your thoughts on that.
 
Doesn't depend of the verdict?
Not guilty, same as OLT
Guilty, and a slap on the wrist, almost the same as OLT
Guilty and a short sentence, things get tricky
Guilty and a long sentence, forget Jackson, more so if Monroe plays his cards right.
The guilty verdict, on the last two will result in a dishonourable discharge. 'If he can't control himself, how can he run the country?'
 
Doesn't depend of the verdict?
Not guilty, same as OLT
Guilty, and a slap on the wrist, almost the same as OLT
Guilty and a short sentence, things get tricky
Guilty and a long sentence, forget Jackson, more so if Monroe plays his cards right.
The guilty verdict, on the last two will result in a dishonourable discharge. 'If he can't control himself, how can he run the country?'
In my timeline he is imprisoned for 3 years. I‘m sure people who were predisposed not to like him will right him off, but those who like him might feel he is being unfairly persecuted, and become die hard supporters. And he is very popular already in the country at large.He is certainly going to a divisive character, but he always was right? I read somewhere that Monroe was wary of a court -martial because it would just fan the flames of his fandom.
 
One thing to remember is that Jackson was ardently a unionist. Despite mostly being remembered today for the Indian Removal Act, his historical importance almost certainly peaked when he politically resolved the Nullification Crisis, which came perilously close to civil war. The idea that he would take the reins of a secessionist movement, or even support one politically, is borderline farcical. Jackson may have been a hardheaded and vengeful man, but his reaction to being court martialed is likely to be very similar to 1824, when the presidency was snatched from him despite having won a plurality in both the popular vote and the electoral college. He licks his wounds, gathers political support, and campaigns on having been betrayed by elite politicians. Depending on how long the legal affair lasts, that might take place in 1824 or 1828.
 
1818 . Andrew Jackson is court martialed and sentenced to three years for his unauthorized attack on Pensacola in Florida.
Charles Pinckney backs Jackson, and tours the south giving speeches demanding his release.

1819. Britain buys the Floridas from Spain, and stops the flow of illegal slaves into the south. Charles Pinckney lambasts Monroe’s government for ‘losing‘ Florida.
A financial panic in this year is the beginning of a three year depression. Charles Pinckney rails against the Second Bank of the United States.

1820. No compromise is reached over Missouri, Monroe being loathe to capitulate to abolitionists when the south seems inclined to give its votes to Pinckney in the next election. In New York, DeWitt Clinton forms the People’s Party in response.
Dewitt Clinton beats Pinckney to the presidency, with Monroe’s’ People’s Party a poor third. Clinton advocates a mild form of antI-slavery and gradual emancipation.

1821. Jackson is released from prison. In speeches to his supporters he refers to a letter in his possession, from Monroe, authorizing him to attack Pensacola. Pinckney gives a fiery speech denouncing Monroe’s corruption, but collapses during the speech. Four days later he dies. Monroe denies sending the letter, but soon retires from politics. John C. Calhoun becomes leader of the Unionist party.
The letter referred to by Jackson is never produced, and Jackson never speaks of it again.

1822. Seminoles from British Florida make raids across the border into Georgia in retaliation for the destruction of a Seminole village. Fears of war with Britain. Jackson demands some kind of military response, Calhoun urges caution. President Clinton resolves the matter diplomatically.
A conspiracy to organize a slave revolt is uncovered in South Carolina. Calhoun’s Unionist Party, now largely confined to the south eastern states, is becoming a pro-slavery party.

1823. Jackson urges Congress to pass a resolution condemning European intervention in the Americas, but it is rejected.

1824. The election of this year is contentious and chaotic., with four presidential candidates.
John Quincy Adams, who is concerned about the administration’s foreign policy and is frustrated by the glacial pace of slave emancipation, forms a new party, the National Republican Party, drawing largely upon the north east for its support. His running mate is Henry Clay. They favor government spending on infrastructure.
The Unionist Party goes with a Calhoun/Crawford ticket, on a pro-slavery, free trade platform.
The National Democratic Party, getting most of its support from the south-west, goes with Jackson as its candidate, with Thomas Hart Benton as his running mate. The party platform is pro-slavery, anti-bank, and pro-expansion.
The People’s Party, the only party with any semblance of a broad base across the country, has its stronghold in New York. President Clinton runs on a mildly anti-slavery platform, and is pro-bank. His running mate is Martin Van Buren.
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The National Democrat Party of Pinckney/Jackson (incarcerated) win South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana , Mississippi, Alabama, and the new state of Missouri.

The Unionist Party of Monroe/Calhoun win Virginia.

The People’s Party of DeWitt Clinton / Rufus King sweep everything else.
The PP win Georgia? And North Carolina?
 
The PP win Georgia? And North Carolina?
Yeah, seems odd, but the People‘s Party isn’t strongly anti-slavery here. DeWitt Clinton isn’t above telling people in the north what they want to hear, and then saying something quite different in the south. I presumed the pro-slavery vote was split between the other 2 parties, and the People’s Party end up getting the most votes. It’s a different question in 1824 though; a governing party is usually forced to take sides, and the People’s Party’s true colors will be more clear.
 
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