WI: Andijan massarce leads to Islamist revolution in Uzbekistan?

Imagine if the http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andijan_massacre had turned into a full scale revolution in Uzbekistan, lead by Islamist radicals
such as the Islamic Movement of Uzebekistan. If the Uzbek government fell would the United States intervene to prevent the country from falling into the hands of radical Islamists who where allied with the Taliban against them in the Afghan War? Would the American people have the stomach for another war in 2005? If not, and the IMU or
equivalent factions took power in Uzbekistan, what would that mean for the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan? Uzebekistan has the largest military of the Central Asian states, and an IMU ruled Uzebekistan would most likely have the removal of U.S. forces form Afghanistan high on it's list of priorities. It could conceivably train Taliban forces, as well as supply them with modern small arms, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. With a committed foreign backer the Afghan insurgency could easily become a much more formidable opponent.
 
Short answer: No. Fucking. Way.

Long answer: Andijan was completely unrelated to the IMU, which by 2005 was barely a functional organization beyond the occasional terrorist attack.

Ignoring that simple fact, conservatism of that sort is more common in the Ferghana Valley, which doesn't have the major centers of population necessary to control Uzbekistan. If Andijan fully succeeds (BIG if), it's going to lead to an end of Karimov, but Uzbekistan doesn't have any real figures that would be pro-democracy.

So you might (if you're lucky) see a situation like OTL's 2005 Kyrgyzstan.
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On an unrelated note, someone besides me has an interest in Central Asia! :D
 

whitecrow

Banned
If Uzbekistan were to be taken over by Islamists, wouldn't Russia and/or U.S.A and/or other Central Asian nations intervene? Seems like an Islamist Uzbekistan is in no-one's best interest...
 
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