WI: An unwanted indefinite dely of Operation Barbarossa.

[Malanic]

EDIT: delay not dely, fuck me.

I'd like to have an opinion from you guys about what could possibly happen if, for a series of reasons, the infamous invasion of Soviet Union was delayed for a very long time, up to Spring to Summer 1943 for exemple, as its seems to be widly accepted that for the end of 1942 Soviet Union would be out of reach for Nazi Germany ambitions.

The idea is that:

- Dunkirk evacuation takes the traits of a much more expansive defeat for the Allies, but not as much too force british government to accept a negotiation while the Churchill government keep its existence.

- The Operation Sea Lion is attempted and it become a very expansive defeat for Nazi Germany, in both men and resources. Nazi leadership is wounded in its prestige and develop an obsession with the defiant British Empire.

- Nazi Germany consequently "ask" Franco's Spain to join the Axis and put under siege Gibraltar, Franco, knowing the deep state of weakness of its own country refuse, Operation Felix ensue. Meanwhile Italy keep doing its own thing in Greece, with the much historically needed foreign assistance, but it could attempt to take Malta too with helps from Germany air force.

- North african front continues to unfold as it did historically.

- This point is hard to explain and need a turkish cooperation to joint force with Germany and extend the conflict in Middle East during the brief anti-British coup d'état in Iraq and maybe to open a future second front against Soviet Union from South-West.

Add your own point, im curious to know your evaluation.

 

[Wendell]

There is no reason for Turkey to enter the war in the situation described.

 

[Michele]

What happens with the Soviet supplies? I'd say that during 1941, the Soviets demand the German payments with increasing insistence, stop the deliveries in the fall, and come early 1942 tell the Germans the trade agreements are over. Your take?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

There is no reason for Turkey to enter the war in the situation described.

Well, you can make one easily enough. A Large German-Bulgarian-Italian army rolls up to the Thracian border brimming with air support and says "Join us, or else". Ankara, at this point, dosen't see any alternatives and agrees not out of love for the Facists, but because you don't ignore a dinner invitation from the devil: all you can do is sup with the longest possible spoo you can find.

 

[lionhead]

- North african front continues to unfold as it did historically.

Other world events happen the same way as well, meaning USA joins in, Sicily is invaded and subsequently southern Italy. The rest is easy. The Soviet Union will join the war by 1943, maybe later. The race for Berlin begins.

 

[Michele]

The rest is easy.

Well, the Germans haven't taken hundreds of thousands of casualties in the Soviet Union, haven't lost thousands of tanks there, haven't burned millions of barrels of fuel there. On the down side, they are not receiving Soviet supplies.
I can get that in North Africa, the logistical constraints prevent these untapped resources to be fully deployed. But once the Allies bring the fight to Europe, "easy" is not the word that comes to my mind.

 

[Redbeard]

If we're about mid 1943 the Red Army would be ready with about 500 Divisions and in this ATL with the full complement of trucks and new tanks. Included would be at least 29 fully motorised Mechanised Corps (29 were in formation by mid 1941) each with about 1000 tanks, most T34 or KV 1.

IMHO the Soviet Mechanised Corps (or Rifle Divisions) were not quite as impressive as they looked, they lacked support and logistic backup to maintain combat capacity, but even considering this the Red Army of 1943 would be an overwhelming force to meet if invading. I guess the Wehrmacht would still be tactically and operationally much superior, and might still win the first clashes, but it would be pyric victories with casualties making further offensive unrealistic.

Mid 1941 was a narrow window of opportunity when the Red Army was caught disorganised by purges and reorganisation.

By 1943 we might as well have an invasion the other way and the Red Army might very well gain some initial successes but again with staggering losses making further offensives unrealistic. In OTL 1941 a few of the Mechanised Corps were close their full complement (but with mainly BT7 and T26 tanks and only few hundred T34/KV1). On paper they were the strongest military formations on the planet by mid 1941 but when engaged in combat usually melted away in a few days without achieving significant results. In an ATL 1943 offensive the basic Soviet organisation and doctrine probably is unchanged, but this time with a better trained officer corps and T34s and KV1s instead of BT7 and T26s. What Germany has been doing until 1943 of course will be important, but the original post doesn't indicate any PoDs producing the experiences from the OTL East Front. I guess we would see a relatively large(r)number of Panzer and Motorised Divisions organised in Panzercorps and Panzergruppen and equipped with Pz III/IV with long 50/75 mm, and a few Tigers in crack independent battalions. I guess the StuG III would be quite numerous and liberally deployed to support the Infantry Divisions.

The scenario with a Soviet attack on Germany might be quite bloody for the Germans as well, but I guess with the Germans on much higher moral ground. That could be significant for how the world will be afterwards.

 

[thaddeus]

What happens with the Soviet supplies? I'd say that during 1941, the Soviets demand the German payments with increasing insistence, stop the deliveries in the fall, and come early 1942 tell the Germans the trade agreements are over. Your take?

would not disagree with that however by that time historically they were not receiving Soviet materials anyway, under this timeline they would have received another 6 - 18?? months of oil and other raw materials? (and would not have been burning thru fuel and ammo across Eastern Front)

not sure what year the balance of forces favors a "reverse-Barbarossa" as opposed to better defensive position? i.e. the German chance to invade has faded or is fading in 1942 but the Soviet chance is not growing as it was by 1944.

 

[thaddeus]

Well, you can make one easily enough. A Large German-Bulgarian-Italian army rolls up to the Thracian border brimming with air support and says "Join us, or else". Ankara, at this point, dosen't see any alternatives and agrees not out of love for the Facists, but because you don't ignore a dinner invitation from the devil: all you can do is sup with the longest possible spoo you can find.

if the Germans had not supported the Iraqi rebellion but instead inserted themselves into Vichy Syria, they might have been able to support renewed uprisings in Palestine and attack Cyprus in relatively low cost operation (and surrounding Turkey, supply thru passage probably not a problem?)

 

[Michele]

would not disagree with that however by that time historically they were not receiving Soviet materials anyway, under this timeline they would have received another 6 - 18?? months of oil and other raw materials? (and would not have been burning thru fuel and ammo across Eastern Front)

The second point is a given.
As to how many months of supplies beyond the historical ones (and they received the last shipments in June!), I'd say 3 months. In October 1941, the Soviets are sure the Germans aren't coming at least until next spring, so they can safely stop the deliveries. The Germans are already in arrears. I'd say that in the summer, the pace of the deliveries will already start decreasing.

 

[lionhead]

Well, the Germans haven't taken hundreds of thousands of casualties in the Soviet Union, haven't lost thousands of tanks there, haven't burned millions of barrels of fuel there. On the down side, they are not receiving Soviet supplies.
I can get that in North Africa, the logistical constraints prevent these untapped resources to be fully deployed. But once the Allies bring the fight to Europe, "easy" is not the word that comes to my mind.

Yeah, but the Soviet Union is sure to attack at this point, especially if the Allies have invaded Italy. The strategic bombing of Germany is well underway and the Allies are starting their buildup for the last invasion(a much bigger invasion). Germany is ready for the taking, Stalin doesn't care about the statistics.

 

[Wendell]

Well, you can make one easily enough. A Large German-Bulgarian-Italian army rolls up to the Thracian border brimming with air support and says "Join us, or else". Ankara, at this point, dosen't see any alternatives and agrees not out of love for the Facists, but because you don't ignore a dinner invitation from the devil: all you can do is sup with the longest possible spoo you can find.

Why would this happen though?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Why would this happen though?

Because the Germans want land military access through Turkey to get to the Middle East, as stated by the OP, and the British look like they can't really provide much assistance or prove much of a threat. The Turks aren't suicidal.

 

[Wendell]

Because the Germans want land military access through Turkey to get to the Middle East, as stated by the OP, and the British look like they can't really provide much assistance or prove much of a threat. The Turks aren't suicidal.

The Turks not being suicidal is precisely why they will stay out of the Axis. You might be able to make them a pro-Axis non-belligerent like Spain, but even that is a stretch.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

The Turks not being suicidal is precisely why they will stay out of the Axis. You might be able to make them a pro-Axis non-belligerent like Spain, but even that is a stretch.

Actually, upon further thought on the matter, this is at least partially right. The Red Black Sea Fleet and the Soviets in general are a huge threat to Turkey, and if given a choice in the matter Ankara probably dosen't want to do anything that will put him on the front line for Stalin's inevitable expansion. The problem with neutrality, however, is that it can be forced: no doubt giving the Axis what it wants (military access) would be interpreted as a hostile action by Great Britain and put the kibosh on aligning with them, and without any Barbarossa the Germans have a fairly large number of land troops to throw around, meaning resisting the Axis threat would be difficult in the extreme. The Turkish government is in the impossible position of balancing the interests of three (Highly interested) powers at once, two of whom can easily militarily overwhelm her and are right next door.

To paraphrase King George III "And when push comes to shove, I will send a fully armed battalion to compel you to my love"

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Actually, upon further thought on the matter, this is at least partially right. The Red Black Sea Fleet and the Soviets in general are a huge threat to Turkey, and if given a choice in the matter Ankara probably dosen't want to do anything that will put him on the front line for Stalin's inevitable expansion. The problem with neutrality, however, is that it can be forced: no doubt giving the Axis what it wants (military access) would be interpreted as a hostile action by Great Britain and put the kibosh on aligning with them, and without any Barbarossa the Germans have a fairly large number of land troops to throw around, meaning resisting the Axis threat would be difficult in the extreme. The Turkish government is in the impossible position of balancing the interests of three (Highly interested) powers at once, two of whom can easily militarily overwhelm her and are right next door.

To paraphrase King George III "And when push comes to shove, I will send a fully armed battalion to compel you to my love"

depending on the time then the US would have entered the war after Pearl either after a German U-boat torpedoes an American warship or Hitler declares war and depending on the time the Med is an Allied lake with the Italian navy almost certainly out of action and with a large number of American units that are currently freed up. Again the Turks declare neutrality and tell everyone that if one side attacks they immediately join the other

 

[Michele]

Yeah, but the Soviet Union is sure to attack at this point, especially if the Allies have invaded Italy. The strategic bombing of Germany is well underway and the Allies are starting their buildup for the last invasion(a much bigger invasion). Germany is ready for the taking, Stalin doesn't care about the statistics.

I'm not so sure the strategic bombing of Germany is having the same (mixed) success as in OTL if the Germans are not at war in the bottomless drain of the Eastern front, and the same applies to their being ready for the taking. Stalin might be willing to take lots of casualties, but the question is whether these are expended fruitfully, or not.
Unless the Germans are taken astoundingly unprepared in Romania (i.e., on the road to Ploesti), I wouldn't rule out that the nukes are needed to really dent the Germans here.

 

[lionhead]

I'm not so sure the strategic bombing of Germany is having the same (mixed) success as in OTL if the Germans are not at war in the bottomless drain of the Eastern front, and the same applies to their being ready for the taking. Stalin might be willing to take lots of casualties, but the question is whether these are expended fruitfully, or not.
Unless the Germans are taken astoundingly unprepared in Romania (i.e., on the road to Ploesti), I wouldn't rule out that the nukes are needed to really dent the Germans here.

I agree the strategic bombings will have sightly less impact, but the failing of the luftwaffe over Great Britain is still a fact and they will probably be losing a lot of planes in operation Sealion as the OP suggested. Basically they will wipe out any chances of countering the allied airforces succesfully. Again, the air defenses of Germany itself are probably better, but the strategic bombings are not prevented. Next to that they will drain a lot of manpower and material in Northern Africa which i doubt they could win, since the Mediterranean stays in firm Royal Navy hands. The draining of material, although not as big as from Barbarossa, will make Germany weak and vulnerable for invasion, even if its less vulnerable than OTL. Like i said, Stalin doesn't care about statistics. When the time is right, neither will the Allies.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

depending on the time then the US would have entered the war after Pearl either after a German U-boat torpedoes an American warship or Hitler declares war and depending on the time the Med is an Allied lake with the Italian navy almost certainly out of action and with a large number of American units that are currently freed up. Again the Turks declare neutrality and tell everyone that if one side attacks they immediately join the other

The OP said that the Germans managed to get the Turks on their side or at least be a non-belligerent willing to grant military access . I agree with you that, the later on this is, the less likely the Turks are to buckle, meaning the intimidation would have likely had to have happened in 41 or 42. However, the simple fact is that with Barbarossa Hitler has whole army groups to play around with (Some need to garrison the Eastern Front, granted... but there they can take advantage of the strategic defensive. Since the crux of so many of Germany's problems were logistics-based, being able to operate defensively from pre-built airfields, use your own pre-built rail lines for transport, and having facilities set up to repair/manufacture parts for damaged aircraft and vechiles will be a huge force multiplier). Turkey's position really isen't enviable: they're getting squeezed from three sides and each one has the capablity of launching a crippling strike before any potential allies can get in place to protect them.

Any way you slice it, though, the land campaign is going to be a nightmare. I expect to see the Brits and Americans argueing endlessly as the British aren't going to be willing to spill alot of their (very limited) blood and are going to be stuck constantly looking for weak points that don't exists.

 

[Wendell]

Actually, upon further thought on the matter, this is at least partially right. The Red Black Sea Fleet and the Soviets in general are a huge threat to Turkey, and if given a choice in the matter Ankara probably dosen't want to do anything that will put him on the front line for Stalin's inevitable expansion. The problem with neutrality, however, is that it can be forced: no doubt giving the Axis what it wants (military access) would be interpreted as a hostile action by Great Britain and put the kibosh on aligning with them, and without any Barbarossa the Germans have a fairly large number of land troops to throw around, meaning resisting the Axis threat would be difficult in the extreme. The Turkish government is in the impossible position of balancing the interests of three (Highly interested) powers at once, two of whom can easily militarily overwhelm her and are right next door.

To paraphrase King George III "And when push comes to shove, I will send a fully armed battalion to compel you to my love"

You're overestimating Germany's interest in taking Thrace. Hitler played a remarkable but delicate game of balancing out the ambitions of his partners in the Axis. But, Istanbul would be much too coveted a prize for both Bulgaria and Italy to keep it anything other than Turkish in the near term at least.