WI - An Italian Tunisia

In OTL Italy had a number of interests in Tunisia prior to the latter coming under the French Protectorate, what if though Tunisia instead came under Italian rule and together with Libya formed part of Italy's fourth shore?

Previous threads note that such an ATL would largely butterfly Italy's need to rule over Ethiopia (Eritrea is possibly another matter though otherwise unsure), it also butterflies the Slap of Tunis and thus Italy later joining the Dual Alliance to create the Triple Alliance that would ultimately benefit Franco-Italian relations.

Given loosely related threads on Italian Libya bring demographically overwhelmed by Italians had they remained neutral (or even switched from neutral to allied) during WW2, does Italian Tunisia share a similar fate to ATL Libya?
 
Anyone?

While there are apparently some difficulties getting the Italians to take Tunisia in place of France to begin with, especially with both the French and British having an interest in keeping Italian power checked in the Mediterranean. Perhaps there is a way for both the French and British to begrudgingly accept the idea, given Italy would be allied with them against the Dual Alliance later the Central Powers by the time of WW1 without the negatively impact of the Slap of Tunis?
 
The main problem is, indeed, how to get Italy to actually be bold enough to defy British and French interests and get the Bey to sign the Protectorate. You'd need an earlier Crespi.

That said, even OTL there were a lot of Italian Tunisians so if a natalist, colonialist regime ever winds up in power, they will push hard for statehood and ethno-cultural replacement.

Under liberal/democratic governments, I'm not sure there would be enough push, numbers and political will for it not to end up like it did for France in Algeria OTL.
 
Would be interesting to compare the demographics of Tunisia prior to coming under the French Protectorate with Libya, which was said to be sparsely populated at the time.

An neutral / allied Italy would probably make Tunisia/Libya majority Italian, especially if this ATL Italy under Mussolini survives until the mid/late-1960s provided they quickly abandon corporatism in favor of free markets post-war and benefit from either Marshal Plan aid or an earlier Italian post-war equivalent of the Spanish Pact of Madrid (with American aid in reality being comparable what its European neighbors had received under the Marshall Plan).

The ATL Years of Lead on Italy's Fourth Shore should be interesting (beginning shortly after the Post-Mussolini Era unless its also largely butterflied away), given an Italian ruled Tunisia and Libya basically butterflies away Gaddafi as well as the hosting of terrorist groups in OTL though groups and arms potentially coming from Algeria and Sudan would be an issue due to the shared borders (short of Sudan being divided between Egypt and Uganda by the British).

That just leaves the question regarding the French in the event an ATL Years of Lead still happens and whether they would follow the Mitterrand doctrine, given France's own history and relations with neighboring Algeria.
 
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