WI an indepent Alto Perú (OTL Bolivia) in 1809?

No los véis sobre México y Quito
arrojarse con saña tenaz
Y cual lloran, bañadas en sangre,
Potosí, Cochabamba y La Paz


Bolivia was the last (Hispanic) South American country to achieve its independence (1825). Its independence was a result of Bolivar's campaign (Bolivia was the last country the soldiers lead by him reached).

However, paradoxically, Bolivia was one of the first South American country to have a revolution. The revolution started in Chuquisaca the 25th May 1809 (exactly one yer before the may revolution in Buenos Aires) and then expanded to other cities, such as La Paz or Potosí. It was supressed quite brutally in December 1809, by loyalists forces who came from Perú and ... Buenos Aires (!).

But what if it hadn't fell. Would the Alto Perú have become an independent country, or would it have joined Perú or Argentina?
And, if it had become independent,... could an earlier self-obtained independence make Bolivia have a better possition than the one she has nowadays? (IOTL Bolivia has lost territory to most of its neighbours, including Pataguay, and is the poorest South american country)
 
I think that Peruvians were too loyalists to join such revolution in 1809, and so a revolutionary Alto Peru would probably find a nemesis in the pro-government Lima. If they join other country it would be probably Rio de la Plata (even more if we can somehow link the Bolivian revolution and the 1810 rebellion in Buenos Aires). However, if you take the OTL example of Paraguay, wich was even less populated than Alto Peru, they might remain independent.
 
I think that Peruvians were too loyalists to join such revolution in 1809, and so a revolutionary Alto Peru would probably find a nemesis in the pro-government Lima. If they join other country it would be probably Rio de la Plata (even more if we can somehow link the Bolivian revolution and the 1810 rebellion in Buenos Aires). However, if you take the OTL example of Paraguay, wich was even less populated than Alto Peru, they might remain independent.

Yes, I think that a union between and independent Bolivia and a loyalist Perú by that time would be very difficult, despite the cultural ties between both.

That leaves to options: a union with Río de la Plata, or independence. If Bolivia holds till the May revolution in Buenos Aires (or if the May revolution happens early), Buenos Aires, formal capital of the Vicerroyalty, would probably try to retain Alto Perú. It'll probably put a bit more effort in doing so than the one it put in trying to keep Paraguay, because the Alto Perú was reach in silver and other minerals, and the Revolutionary government was in need of cash.

But, on the other hand, it is also reasonable to think that the Revolutionary Government, pressured by the Spanish loyalists in Montevideo, and fearing a Portuguese intervention, might let Alto Perú go its own way. After all, having a buffer state that would recieve all the weight of the Spanish pressure might be something the Goverment could see as convenient. The government would probably focus on consolidating its power, expelling the Spanish from Montevideo, and in repelling (or trying to repell) an eventual Portuguese interventention in la Banda Oriental/Cisplatine province/Uruguay.

In the mean time, the revolution might still happen in Chile, or it might be butterflied away. If it happens, chances are thet it won't fall to the Spanish in 1814, as the loyalists would me more focused in Alto Peru.
If it doesn't happen, Chile would be the main concern of the Argentinian government. As soon as Montevideo is captured (it was taken in 1814 IOTL), an expedition to Chile would be launched. Uruguay wouldn't be a priority, and may fall to the Portuguese,...if they come.

However, I am thinking that a Bolivia who recieves all the blows from the Spanish loyalists forces for all the duration of the independence war wouldn't be a prosperous country, at least in its inmediate future.
 
In the mean time, the revolution might still happen in Chile, or it might be butterflied away. If it happens, chances are thet it won't fall to the Spanish in 1814, as the loyalists would me more focused in Alto Peru.
If it doesn't happen, Chile would be the main concern of the Argentinian government. As soon as Montevideo is captured (it was taken in 1814 IOTL), an expedition to Chile would be launched. Uruguay wouldn't be a priority, and may fall to the Portuguese,...if they come.

Well, if the revolutinaries of 1810 are much more successful because the Spanish need to use more troops in Alto Peru then is likely to have an earlier Portuguese invasion of Uruguay (maybe 1811, 1812). Also, if there is an incident like the 1825 Chiquitos affair in the Brazilian border with Alto Peru (but more serious than the one that happened IOTL) you might have a two fronts war for the Portuguese. However, the invasion of Banda Oriental would be much easier than the fight in the Mato Grosso border. That would be interesting.

However, I am thinking that a Bolivia who recieves all the blows from the Spanish loyalists forces for all the duration of the independence war wouldn't be a prosperous country, at least in its inmediate future.
Sure, but in the other hand a Bolivia much more worried about possible invasions from her Peruvian neighbour might invest more in the Army. It wouldn't not probably be good for democracy, with the militaries having even more influence in politics, but you might have a stronger Bolivia in the long run.
Also, what would do the OTL Northern Argentine provinces? Would stay with Buenos Aires or join Alto Peru?
 
But, on the other hand, it is also reasonable to think that the Revolutionary Government, pressured by the Spanish loyalists in Montevideo, and fearing a Portuguese intervention, might let Alto Perú go its own way. After all, having a buffer state that would recieve all the weight of the Spanish pressure might be something the Goverment could see as convenient. The government would probably focus on consolidating its power, expelling the Spanish from Montevideo, and in repelling (or trying to repell) an eventual Portuguese interventention in la Banda Oriental/Cisplatine province/Uruguay.
Actually that's pretty much what happened in OTL. The Alto Perú turned into a hell of guerrilla wars led by people like the Yavi Marquis, Juana Azurduy, Lanza and others. And although they couldn't really stop the Spanish forces that final task always ended up (in the late 1810's) in Güemes, turning the province of Salta into that buffer. As of the Portuguese interventention in la Banda Oriental/Cisplatine province/Uruguay remember that the Government saw Artigas as a political enemy... there enough theories that they though that intervention as something - at least - desirable for people from Buenos Aires. And even if they wanted to fight Portugal, given how hard it was for San Martin to get resources for the Andes' Army in 1816-17, could they do it?
We need several things:
one are stronger revolutionary armies in Alto Perú (no idea how)
the Buenos Aires garrison can't be involved in supressing that revolt (butteflies would seriously affect the May 25th Revolution). Perhaps that's the reason why the revolt is succesful ITTL
More resources for the revolucionary forces. Perhaps keeping the silver mines under revolutionary control helps. Other than that, somekind of Paraguayan involvment in the independence war (is it plausible?) or more Bristish support (ie sending firearms and artillery)
The interesting part is how a larger amount of Spanish troops fighting in the Alto Perú would affect the Chilenean Revolution. Maybe they aren't defeated at Rancagua so the Andes' Army join forces with them, this ATL has less fighting in Chile leading to an earlier attack on Perú by sea?
 
Speaking in the long term, is it likely that Peru and Alto Peru could be unified into a "greater Peru" from the mountains? I believe it was tried at some point, and failed due to Chilean intervention, but if Alto Peru was considered the "stronghold of independence" and the reason for Peruvian independence, perhaps that union could hold.
 

maverick

Banned
This is hard...

First we need to stop Lima from crushing the revolution, and thus we need to get rid of Avalos, the Peruvian Viceroy, (who IOTL managed to crush every single revolution in the continent except for Buenos Aires, Paraguay and Bolivar's guerrillas in southern Venezuela)

But that would deeply affect the rest of the independence wars...

Secondly, we need a strong central leadership in the Alto Peru, someone like Guemes, to led the nascent Alto Peruvian nation against the forces of Peru...
 
Secondly, we need a strong central leadership in the Alto Peru, someone like Guemes, to led the nascent Alto Peruvian nation against the forces of Peru...
There were some leaders. But I was thinking in those lines and I actually think that we need some really good officers, trained in Europe, such us OTL San Martín and to a lesser extend Brandsen and Holmberg. The quality of the officer corps in the revolutionary armies was awful, and a bunch of good officers teaching what they know and leading the armies in the field can make a lot of a difference The issue is that, with the Napeleonic Wars around, I don't think European mercenaries (Brandsen was a initially a mercenary IIRC) were - let's say - easy to come by. Other than that the Spanish have to open some sort of Officer's Academy in South America and open it to the natives... :eek: How's that for a challenge?
 
well Peru and Bolivia were in a federation for a while but that colapsed when they lost a war with Chile for some relatively strange reason

what part of the population caried that revolution, the urban, the rural, native? midlle class, proletariat?

depending on who is the main drive of the revolution it could or could not get support from outside or have a economic/military base on wich it can hipoteticaly win

was Bolivar part of it in 1809 or was he on the loyalist side?
 
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