So even if theres further escalation in Vietnam it can backfire even worse?
I wonder what kinda impact it'll have on hawks in US politics.
One widely accepted analysis puts the United States as having gone through a dolchstoßlegende, or "stab in the back myth," where the Military Industrial complex and right wing nationalists/imperialists claimed that their military failure was in fact a failure of the civilian authorities. This is obviously a comparative reasoning with the much greater dolchstoßlegende that post-Imperial Germany went through.
One obvious way to take this forward, is that if the historical situation resulted in a lesser dolchstoßlegende and "crisis" in the culture of the right— then a 750000 / million men Vietnam with mobilisation, activation of reserves, Soviet panic, US investment until 1976 and the 1980 DRVN offensive uniting Vietnam, more bodies, a concerted and large bombing and riot campaign at home, a serious economic collapse ala the Soviet Union in the early 1980s that makes malaise look like the 1953 recession, open multi-divisional mutiny in Germany, open operational mutinies in Vietnam—then the crisis for the right will be that much greater.
A charismatic "uniter" like Reagan may not be available to recohere the right democratically. I would note that it took the German right 15 years to cohere a ruling coalition that recognised popular right wing discontent AND that the American political landscape with a million man Vietnam ending 1980 (US commitment 1976) is very different to Germany in 1917. For one, even in the dark days of 1973-1978, the US "left" had far more system supporting liberals than even the middle class geographic membership branches of the German SPD: the revolutionary threat which produced much of German extra-parliamentary right wing culture would not be the same.
If you want me to hazard a guess on the US "revolutionary" right, think of a more immediately "nationally" political charismatic religious revival, a revanchevist (for US Vietnam) "Returned Soldiers League," and better business council that wants PATCO and Detroit crushed with the National Guard.
What does the left look like? The blood in the gutters and hundreds of dead policemen at the 1972 Democratic "convention" combined with the Republican "southern" strategy have probably started a reconfiguration of the US Party system by 1976. While everyone thinks of the Weathermen's bar bombings, or the Coldfront splinter groups' execution campaigns into the early 1990s (largely to free RAF, BR and WeatherU/CF prisoners… failed), the day to day feminist and trade unionist work by groups like the US Maoist movements, or Radical Amerika, or the more social democratic sections of the US left had the greater lasting impact. With the 1968 mobilisation suddenly increasing the strength of organised labour, the next 14 years were a good time to organise for the Industrial left: labour shortage due to war, cultural radicalisation, hyperinflation causing "catch up" wage militant strikes, a state apparatus that was willing to put martyrs on the floor regularly, but no suspension of "normal democracy" like in the Civil War or even WWII's voluntary no strike pledges.
The guts, however, fell out of the left in 1976 when US "draw down" to "European priorities" became a reality, stripping much of the more conservative anti-war movement away from alliance with the left generally. This was exacerbated by the racial tensions in the left which exploded as the difficult to maintain links between working class black nationalists and organisations of predominantly white children of professional ex-University students broke down. Even for the Industrially oriented sections of the left, the gulf between the living world of unskilled black marginal workers, and "lifer" white rank and file activists stretched alliances to breaking point as white returned soldiers received (illegal) preference in industry leading to large scale lay offs in Detroit and Aerospace of black workers. Things only got worse in 1980 when for half of the "left" the job was finished, whereas for the rest of the left the job had only just begun. The internecine assassinations that had begun in 1974 by the armed sections of the movement had not helped left unity any either.
The US economy is a basket case, compared to the United Kingdom whose Unions were crushed during the late 1970s during the "red winter" of the West. With a broken backed Democratic party, and a Republican Party composed of hostile fights between revanchevists, faith healers, and "Thatcherites" over what course for the right it is only the deep pockets of the rich, and the depth of suffering of the poor, that keeps America from the edge of collapse situation that its wrestling partner, the Soviet Union is in. For those unconcerned with domestic society, but only concerned with international politics, the question is which wrestler shall strangle himself first? Most seem to think the United States [but as we in OTL know, they'd be wrong].
yours,
Sam R.