WI: an early California Republic

In 1836 Juan Bautista Alvarado led a revolt against the governor of Alta California. IOTL many of the Americans and Europeans that supported Alvarado had hoped that California would become an independent republic but Alvarado preferred the idea of continuing on as part of Mexico, just with greater autonomy. What if Alvarado decides that he would rather be president of an independent California than governor and California wins its independence?
 
Would a California Republic eventually be annexed by the US?

I would think the matter primarily concerns promoting a Californian identity over an American one, which can be achieved by having more Non-American immigrants early on and directly traveling to California.
 

katchen

Banned
Everything's eventual, as Stephen King says

Would a California Republic eventually be annexed by the US?

I would think the matter primarily concerns promoting a Californian identity over an American one, which can be achieved by having more Non-American immigrants early on and directly traveling to California.
Eventually is a very long time. But one of the hurdles California would have to get over to become part of the US, at least initially, would be the question of whether or not to permit slavery. Not having a slave state as a proxy could doom California's application for US statehood, at least until slavery is abolished in the US.
 
Would a California Republic eventually be annexed by the US?

As much as I'd love to see an independent California surviving, I doubt that it would not be annexed. It might have the knock on effect of resulting in Van Buren being more receptive to the idea of annexing Texas as a slave state if the US can annex the Republic of California as a free state to balance it out.
 
Not necessarily. It depends on the nature of this California Republic, if it is more say Hispanic or a English. Largely though, California is rather isolated due to it being surrounded by such geographic barriers as the Sierra Mountains, Mojave Desert, and the Rockies until a time frame of modern transportation. Depending if they cater to immigrants the Californian identity may be able to win over those immigrants passing through America that haven't obtained an American Identity or even those from America. The non French population of Canada during the War of 1812 was composed of American settlers that were not loyalists that moved into Canada between the war and revolution and they didn't go up in arms primarily because the land was cheap and so were the taxes.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Personally, I feel a Strategy Game AAR would probably make a poor choice for an example...but don't mind me, I dunno what I'm talking about.
 
The appearance of gold in 1848 would make their continuing independence difficult. First, a lot of Americans would have made their way there to panhandle. As the population increases there would probably be a natural tendency to look to the US. Second, I think the US would have been hard pressed to put aside manifest destiny just because someone declared independence from Mexico. Also, California would have been an inviting target for Nappy while he was meddling in Mexico. These things probably push it into the US. Finally, looking further out, San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco each have important ports. If the US loses those, it has only Seattle to fall back on. Any eventual Pacific ambitions are scaled back by not having those ports.

California's geography would make it hard to conquer if it required invasion. But I am not sure the "Republic of California" would have been able to organize itself in such a way to create an adequate defense. It certainly would have required arms imports. The British? The Russians? After the Civil War, the union army could have rolled on whatever existed.
 
Not to mention an incredible tease that it hasn't been finished!!!

Though I suppose we need to take in condition what diplomatic allies California gains during this period. An alliance with Mexico could very well alone tip its own stability while it seems very likely it will reach out to the British and other world powers who will be keenly interested in keeping Californian Independence.
 
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