update
26 Dec: Gen. Haig’s Christmas Offensive is very unpopular with the men of the British First Army. There is a rumor circulating amongst them that the main reason for the offensive was to prevent a repeat of last year’s fraternization with the enemy. The offensive continues but is unable to make any further progress.
27 Dec: Both Kitchener and Balfour had agreed to Haig’s Christmas Offensive only after he had promised to halt it after 48 hrs if he failed to achieve a clear cut breakthrough. Despite failing to achieve such a breakthrough Haig violates his promise and continues his offensive making little progress and suffering serious casualties. He later justifies by saying that he wanted to keep up the pressure on the Germans to facilitate the upcoming French counteroffensive.
There is an acrimonious meeting between Falkenhayn, Kronprinz Wilhelm, the commander of Fifth Army, and his chief of staff, Knobelsdorf. The prince complains that surprise has been long lost at Verdun and the recent operations esp. those on the east bank have become too costly. He therefore favors suspending the offensive. Knobelsdorf feels that it is now all downhill into the city and is confident that he can take it in the next 10 days. He already has bands ready to celebrate the triumph. Falkenhayn is deeply ambivalent. Part of him wants the prestige of taking Verdun but he is also tempted to bleed the French as much as possible first. He eventually shocks Knobelsdorf by agreeing with Wilhelm.
28 Dec: Joffre launches counterattacks at both Verdun and Belfort. At Verdun where Petain has finally been put in charge the French effort is concentrated solely on the east bank. At a heavy cost in casualties they take Fleury and Fort Thiaumont but are repelled at Fort Souville. At Belfort the French Seventh Army succeeds in advancing a kilometer in front of Fort de Roppe and Fort de Bessoncourt with only moderate losses despite the enemy still having a superiority (albeit reduced) in heavy artillery. However at Fort de Giromagny the French make no progress at all and suffer heavy losses.
29 Dec: Kitchener orders Haig to terminate the Christmas Offensive forthwith. The French however continue their attacks at both Verdun and Belfort. They make no progress whatsoever at Verdun and only a little at Belfort while suffering very heavy losses at both places.
31 Dec: The French Seventh Army supplements its counteroffensive at Belfort with a secondary attack in the Vosges with the ultimate objective of taking the Grand Ballon. It starts by pushing the Austrians back near the Bussang Pass but then peters out in the rough terrain.
1916
Early Jan: The state of the Russian economy during the winter of 1915-1916 is considerably worse than OTL though not as wretched as the winter of 1916-1917. The western Ukraine has been lost and the eastern Ukraine has been degraded by the inconsistently applied scorched earth policy causing a shortfall of food harvested. There has been a massive number of refugees who are not being cared for adequately esp. the Jews. The huge influx of conscripts into the army in the late summer and fall have resulted in severe labor shortages. The railroad network is deteriorating. Major food shortages begin to appear now in the cities spawning more demonstrations and strikes.
In Ireland there is an annoying very small level guerilla campaign by the rebel forces in Wicklow and Kerry (which at this stage are totally independent) that Maxwell is unable to eliminate. Maxwell complains that this is due in large part to executing too few rebels. There are some members of the Cabinet that agree with him incl. Kitchener.
3 Jan: Kitchener and Haig meet with Joffre at Dieppe. Haig and Joffre agree that it is possible to defeat the Germans on the Western Front during the summer provided Russia reenters the war. If Russia drops out they believe they can hold on defense and wear the Germans down in 1916 and then go on a decisive offensive in the spring of 1917. Kitchener is not completely persuaded by this and asks blunt questions about how many casualties could be expected under both scenarios and is unhappy with Haig’s answer. Joffre does admit that if Russia makes a separate peace King Albert will be tempted to do likewise.
5 Jan: Kaiser Wilhelm calls another conference at Pless to discuss strategy if Russia fails to accept the demands of the Central Powers at Stockholm. Falkenhayn who is still advocating softening the CP demands, says that if Russia does resume the war then the Central Powers should be on the defensive and let the Russians wear themselves out with a winter offensive. Ludendorff strongly disagrees with this and advocates an immediate march on Petrograd when the armistice ends. Conrad has plans for taking the Crimea. There is some concerned that the Rumanians believing the war to be over, have demobilized too much during the armistice. The problem with the Ottomans is the reverse. Enver has been steadily strengthening his forces in Caucasia during the armistice. Falkenhayn is worried that there could be a repetition of Sarikamish if Russia reenters the war. Sweden has promised to join the war against Russia but will need time to mobilize. Wilhelm has trouble making up his mind. He eventually decides that if Russia resumes the war that initially the Central Powers should remain on the defensive but in late April should launch a war winning offensive though he is unclear about what that should be.
6 Jan: Since Christmas French casualties at Verdun alone are now over 100,000 while Seventh Army has suffered over 70,000 at Belfort.
7 Jan: Petain finally takes Fort Souville in incredibly fierce fighting.
10 Jan: Unable to advance any further on the east bank, Petain switches to the west bank. He achieves some surprise and is able to advance 600m.
11 Jan: German Fifth Army recovers from yesterday’s set back and defeats a French attempt to take Morte Homme.
13 Jan: Under heavy pressure from the Ottoman Sixth Army which has been recently reinforced, Townshend’s expedition is destroyed.
14 Jan: (Lockhart Plot) Robert Bruce Lockhart, the Acting British Consul General in Moscow together with Sidney Reilly have conspired with members of the Duma favoring a resumption of war. They want to depose the Tsar and replace him with his uncle Grand Duke Nikolai who in addition to resuming the war they expected to grant Duma the authority it wants. This plot is uncovered by an informant. Lockhart is arrested but Reilly escapes.