Theoretically, yes. However, an English Prince might be less appealing than an available Portuguese Duke.

What if Richard offers another of his nieces for Joao's son in lieu of the Catholic Monarchs' daughter? It ensures an Anglo-Iberian alliance even if Joana can't give Richard an heir? Maybe Anne or Katherine for Affonso, and whichever of the pair is left for Juan d'Aragon.
 
What if Richard offers another of his nieces for Joao's son in lieu of the Catholic Monarchs' daughter? It ensures an Anglo-Iberian alliance even if Joana can't give Richard an heir? Maybe Anne or Katherine for Affonso, and whichever of the pair is left for Juan d'Aragon.

It could work, but I'd be worried that life was being too good to Richard in this scenario.
 
It could work, but I'd be worried that life was being too good to Richard in this scenario.

How so? He still only has one heir if Joana is too old for childbearing, there's no reasonvto think Harry Tudor won't make a play for the throne, after all. He gets his nieces out of the country but keeps Elizabeth and Cecily close to home so Spain and Portugal can't mount a claim for Anne or Katherine's kids
 
Theoretically, yes. However, an English Prince might be less appealing than an available Portuguese Duke.

What if Joao II decides to send Manuel to join the rest of his family? I mean, AFAIK, he was only spared at Queen Leonor's intercession, so if she couldn't or wouldn't intercede for Manuel, then that puts any kids of Richard and Joana in line for the Portuguese throne, and then, should Juan die on schedule, Edward of Middleham and Isabel's (second) son stands to inherit Spain. Or would Fernando still try to block the inheritance by remarrying?
 
Ok I think I have a solid scenario for this POD:

1484: Edward of Middleham, the Prince of Wales, suffers an illness but pulls through, managing to survive and thus emerges healthy, but weaker than prior to the illness. He, however, begins to regain his strength and by August is proclaimed stronger than ever.

1485: Richard III of England begins negotiations with Spain to marry Edward to either the Catholic Monarchs' eldest daughter or their second, Isabella or Joanna of Aragon. Richard hopes for Isabella, but the Catholic monarchs initially favour a match between the Prince of Wales and Joanna. During this time, the Queen of England, Anne Neville, dies, leaving the King of England a widower with one child, Managing to use this to his advantage, he contracts a marriage to the Infanta Joanna of Portugal, to be completed when and if the menace of Henry Tudor, pretender to the Throne, is dealt with. Agreeing, he leaves London with his son as Regent, a purely symbolic act but one that shows he has faith in the future. The battle between the Yorkist and Tudor armies is bloody, but ultimately Richard wins out. Taking Henry Tudor into his custody, he does not have him executed, but instead offers to allow him the privileges of his father as Earl of Richmond, and to find him a suitable bride. Tudor agrees, becoming a footnote in history.

1486: The Infanta Joanna arrives in England, miserable. However, she is greeted by such fanfare that even she is impressed, although that won't end her bitter correspondence with her family in Portugal. Her cousin, the Duke of Beja and Viseu, would later in the year marry the King of England's niece Elizabeth of York, as the marriage pact had agreed to. Late in the year, Queen Joanna would announce her first pregnancy, while the marriage treaty between England and Spain was completed by a betrothal between Edward of Middleham and Isabella of Aragon.

1487: The birth of the Prince John of England, Duke of York, was a major boost for Richard III of England. With only a son who had proved unhealthy in the past and was still somewhat weaker than hoped, and having just come off the death of his first wife and a major rebellion, it was hope for the future. This was compacted by a wedding later in the year as the Infanta Isabella of Aragon arrived in England, flanked by 25 beautiful Spanish ladies-in-waiting. Finding herself thrilled with her new husband, the Infanta was pleasing to her new family. In Portugal, within weeks of the announcement of a son to the Infanta Joanna, the Duke of Beja and Viseu mysteriously died, leaving his bride pregnant with their first child. This child, a daughter, was named Beatrice of Viseu.

1488: The birth of another child with the Infanta Joanna, another Prince, named Richard, came as yet another great boon for the King of England. With his three sons, Richard felt secure enough to set sail to Calais, where he began his attack in France. Partially a continuation of the Hundred Years War, partially an attempt to get the France back for backing Henry Tudor, the King of England took a few cities and townships, not quite reaching Paris, before the diplomacy began.

1489: Having treated 6 months, the King of England would emerge victorious in his battle for France, although not overly victorious. Richard would be granted an extension of the land around Calais, along with various townships around that area, and a annuity. Thus, English interests in France were heightened, but not to the extent that many had hoped. Unsatisfied with his war, the King of England returned to London with much fanfare. Traveling with his army, he shortly after travel to Ireland to begin sorting out the issue of a pretender to his throne, a young man who claimed to be his nephew Richard. Ensuring the boy was captured, the King of England would have him and his conspirators executed.

1490: The birth of a Princess to the King of England and his wife, the Queen Joanna, was to come early in the year. The Princess Cecily would act as a conciliatory for Richard to use in France, as he offered the Princess to the first son of the King of France. Charles VIII of France, yet unmarried, would accept this potential betrothal. It was this year that the King of Scotland was contracted to marry the Infanta Catalina of Aragon, youngest daughter of the Catholic Monarchs.

1491: The death of the Queen of England early in the year caused much sorrow in London. Having lost a second wife in less that a decade, Richard III of England would fall into a deep grief, becoming intensely focused on the subject or ruling. The birth of a grandson in the form of Edward of Wales managed to brighten the mood, but this joy was undercut by the infant's ill health.

1492: The death of two of the royal family's children caused much sorrow in the court, not quite recovered from the death of Joanna of Portugal. First, Cecily of England died, and within a week her nephew, Edward of Wales also died.

Richard III of England (b.1452: d.1498) m. Anne Neville (b.1456: d.1485) (a), Joanna of Portugal (b.1452: d.1491) (b)

1a) Edward of Middleham, Prince of Wales (b.1473: d.1497) m. Isabella of Aragon (b.1470: d.1519) (a)

1a) Edward of Wales (b.1491: d.1492)

2a) Richard IV of England (b.1492)

3a) Miscarriage (c.1494)

4a) Anne of England (b.1496)​

2b) John III of Portugal (b.1487: d.1515) m. Beatrice of Viseu (b.1487: d.1552) (a)

1a) Edward II of Portugal (b.1509)

2a) Isabella of Portugal (b.1513)​

3b) Richard of England, Duke of Gloucester (b.1488)

4b) Cecily of England (b.1490: d.1492)​
 
@Kynan: I like the general outline, although I have one or two nitpicks: Richard would hardly allow Tudor his birthright, much less finding him a wife to beget possible future claimants to the throne (at least, I don't think he would. I think he would be very conscious that Tudor is both a bit of a joke with his Lancastrian claim as well as a threat). Secondly, I worry that a match between Joao III and Beatriz of Viseu would further concentrate the Aviz bloodline (there hasn't been a foreign born queen of Portugal in a couple generations (and one who's further removed than cousin since before Philippa of Lancaster)).
 
@Kynan: I like the general outline, although I have one or two nitpicks: Richard would hardly allow Tudor his birthright, much less finding him a wife to beget possible future claimants to the throne (at least, I don't think he would. I think he would be very conscious that Tudor is both a bit of a joke with his Lancastrian claim as well as a threat). Secondly, I worry that a match between Joao III and Beatriz of Viseu would further concentrate the Aviz bloodline (there hasn't been a foreign born queen of Portugal in a couple generations (and one who's further removed than cousin since before Philippa of Lancaster)).

1) I sort of went back and forth between having Tudor killed and having him brought into the nobility under Richard. On one hand, Richard wasn't exactly against nullifying competitors by killing them. On the other hand, having Tudor brought back into the nobility both symbolically places him beneath Richard, which makes him less of a threat, and makes Richard look magnanimous, particularly if he marries him off to some other noble girl. Maybe he'd marry the Grey sister his uncle did OTL.

2) The John III of Portugal/Beatrice of Viseu match made sense to me as a way of ensuring Richard's son finds an easy transition to the throne. Their son can, in this scenario, marry outside the gene pool and reset all that, but if Beatrice is left to marry elsewhere, her theoretically better claim (born in Portugual, not foreign nobility ect) is going elsewhere.
 
1) I sort of went back and forth between having Tudor killed and having him brought into the nobility under Richard. On one hand, Richard wasn't exactly against nullifying competitors by killing them. On the other hand, having Tudor brought back into the nobility both symbolically places him beneath Richard, which makes him less of a threat, and makes Richard look magnanimous, particularly if he marries him off to some other noble girl. Maybe he'd marry the Grey sister his uncle did OTL.

2) The John III of Portugal/Beatrice of Viseu match made sense to me as a way of ensuring Richard's son finds an easy transition to the throne. Their son can, in this scenario, marry outside the gene pool and reset all that, but if Beatrice is left to marry elsewhere, her theoretically better claim (born in Portugual, not foreign nobility ect) is going elsewhere.

Agree with you on 2), not necessarily on 1). Richard's model for kingship from what I can make out, is his brother, Edward. Yes, he was critical of several of Edward's decisions, but to keep Harry Tudor around when you either have no heir or a very sickly one, and you're marrying a spinster you can't be sure is going to give you another, seems bad politics. Harry would inherit mom's estates when she dies, and to be honest, that would put him on par with Buckingham etc (I believe), and look what happened to the Staffords. Granted it's very easy in hindsight to say all of this, but let's face it, if Harry tries to kill Richard on alt-Bosworth, Richard's not just going to sit there, he's gonna strike back. While the Lancastrians are a spent force TTL, Harry Tudor likewise had the support of the Yorkists that Richard had alienated, so IMHO, Dickon's not just going to say, "Alright old chap, sorry you lost, you can't have the crown, here's your dad's title back, and while we're at it, you can marry my sister-in-law's niece". He'll maybe keep Harry locked in the Tower a la Earl of Warwick, to wring some prize plums out of Maggie B.

Likewise, there's no proof that even had Richard brought him into the aristocracy, Harry would stay loyal to Richard. Loyalties were a fluid thing in most cases during the Wars of the Roses, so while Harry might stay loyal to Richard III, he might feel no such loyalty to Edward of Middleham when he succeeds as Edward V, and might even stage another rising in said instance.
 
Likewise, there's no proof that even had Richard brought him into the aristocracy, Harry would stay loyal to Richard. Loyalties were a fluid thing in most cases during the Wars of the Roses, so while Harry might stay loyal to Richard III, he might feel no such loyalty to Edward of Middleham when he succeeds as Edward V, and might even stage another rising in said instance.

Who would be around to support such a rising anyway? I would think that Harry Tudor was sort of the last of the last hope of any Lancastrian claimant, since there were no male-line Beauforts left, and even he was only a female-line descendant. Buckingham might have a claim, but after that, I'm not sure...
 
An Anglo-Iberian empire is a fun idea. As is Richard III kyboshing the Tudors and securing his dynasty.

No link between Spain and Burgundy is going to change the development of the Low Countries - in OTL, Spain's gold supercharged the banking industries of the region - without a dynastic connection, the development of Dutch and Flemmish banking may be retarded. I'm not sure where the gold would flow to if it were diverted away from the low countries - Italy perhaps, or maybe some would end up in London.

I also wonder if Castille would try to retard English colonial ventures if the union lasts? Castille certainly did its best to keep Aragon and Galicia from participating in the colonization of the Americas in OTL.

If Lutheranism occurs as per OTL, without a Spanish connection, the Hapsburgs are very likely to go Protestant. That could be quite interesting.

fasquardon
 
An Anglo-Iberian empire is a fun idea. As is Richard III kyboshing the Tudors and securing his dynasty.

No link between Spain and Burgundy is going to change the development of the Low Countries - in OTL, Spain's gold supercharged the banking industries of the region - without a dynastic connection, the development of Dutch and Flemmish banking may be retarded. I'm not sure where the gold would flow to if it were diverted away from the low countries - Italy perhaps, or maybe some would end up in London.

I also wonder if Castille would try to retard English colonial ventures if the union lasts? Castille certainly did its best to keep Aragon and Galicia from participating in the colonization of the Americas in OTL.

If Lutheranism occurs as per OTL, without a Spanish connection, the Hapsburgs are very likely to go Protestant. That could be quite interesting.

fasquardon

I think it is still likely that Spain and Portugal will have trade links with England and the Low Countries, OTL the had those mostly due to the Castilian wool trade with the Low Countries, the Portuguese who supplied them with salt etc. So perhaps not as an aggressive a development of the area economically, but I don't think they would end up as a backwater.

Well, I guess that Anglo-Castilian colonialism would depend. Does Isabel of Castile still grant an audience to Columbus? He's already been refused by Portugal, and I've heard it said that his next port of call would've been either Paris or London. I suppose it all depends on how things go there. I mean, I can't see the London merchants just sitting back and watching Castile rake in the profits.

Habsburgs going Protestant could be fun, but at the same time, I wonder if it would? True, Charles V wouldn't need to still be Catholic here, and Eleonore, Marie and Elisabeth of Austria all showed interest in the "new" religion. However, the Habsburgs (Charles V, Ferdinand I, Maximilian II and Felipe II) tended to be pragmatic about their religion. True, they would've liked it if they could've forced everyone to be Catholic, but Ferdinand and Felipe both showed that they could turn a blind eye when they wanted, if it suited their long game, they would team up with the Protestant English or Germans to take on the French and the Turks, so I don't know just how Protestant they would be. Maybe more Henrician Catholic than full-bore Protestant.
 
I would be interested in seeing an Anglo-Spanish union through Richard III of England marrying Isabel II of Castile. Isabel, much like Catherine, wasted several of her most fertile years in widowhood. When looking at her sisters Maria and Juana, she could easily be responsible for a regeneration of the house of York.

Most significantly, both Isabel and Richard were reportedly very religious, so I could see England swerving in a very different direction than OTL. Especially if Isabel were to survive long after Richard's ttl death, and become a sort of alt-Margaret Beaufort figure.
 
I think it is still likely that Spain and Portugal will have trade links with England and the Low Countries, OTL the had those mostly due to the Castilian wool trade with the Low Countries, the Portuguese who supplied them with salt etc. So perhaps not as an aggressive a development of the area economically, but I don't think they would end up as a backwater.

I was specifically speaking of the banking industry of the Low Countries, which was super-charged by gold and loaning the Spanish crown money for all its wars.

Absolutely the Low Countries would be as important as ever for the wool trade.

Actually, if there is an Anglo-Spanish union of some sort, a big part of both kingdom's economies will be exporting wool to feed the Flemish textile industry - I wonder if that would result in the unified crowns having a strong interest in conquering the region.

England/Spain/Low Countries would be a real juggernaut, even with the inevitable long wars to keep control of the Low Countries.

Well, I guess that Anglo-Castilian colonialism would depend. Does Isabel of Castile still grant an audience to Columbus? He's already been refused by Portugal, and I've heard it said that his next port of call would've been either Paris or London. I suppose it all depends on how things go there. I mean, I can't see the London merchants just sitting back and watching Castile rake in the profits.

Well, even if Castille doesn't get Columbus' services, I would bet that they would be a big player in the colonization of the Americas, as would England.

It would be very interesting if Spanish colonialism was driven by Basque expeditions at first...

fasquardon
 
I was specifically speaking of the banking industry of the Low Countries, which was super-charged by gold and loaning the Spanish crown money for all its wars.

Absolutely the Low Countries would be as important as ever for the wool trade.

Actually, if there is an Anglo-Spanish union of some sort, a big part of both kingdom's economies will be exporting wool to feed the Flemish textile industry - I wonder if that would result in the unified crowns having a strong interest in conquering the region.

England/Spain/Low Countries would be a real juggernaut, even with the inevitable long wars to keep control of the Low Countries.



Well, even if Castille doesn't get Columbus' services, I would bet that they would be a big player in the colonization of the Americas, as would England.

It would be very interesting if Spanish colonialism was driven by Basque expeditions at first...

fasquardon

Well, the Low Countries proved "ungovernable" to the Spanish Crown because Felipe II refused to accept that Protestants could be good subjects (to oversimplify it) and tried to get Burgundy to give up their freedoms in favor of being ruled from Madrid. IN ttl, there's no reason that the king of England would try and do the same, even if he did conquer it. Although I could imagine France would be against any kind of resumption of the 100YW (since that what it would look like).

Would the Basque expeditions be before or after Columbus - Colombe if he goes to France - goes halfway around the world to find a route that's sorta blocked?
 
Would the Basque expeditions be before or after Columbus - Colombe if he goes to France - goes halfway around the world to find a route that's sorta blocked?

Well, the Basque fishermen may have been sailing across the Atlantic before Columbus - certainly they were shortly after Columbus - but as far as I am aware they were mainly visiting the Grand Banks, not making landfall in the new world so much.

The value of those fishing grounds might, however, mean that Spain would put some effort into colonizing Newfoundland in TTL to secure their fishing rights if France and/or Portugal are the powers doing all the conquistadoring down south. From those Newfoundland bases, Spain might then get interested in colonizing North America proper.

As such, I don't think that Columbus would be "blocked off".

Even if Spain didn't have a "Basque led" involvement in the New World, due to geography and the technology of Spain at that time, Spain would always be one of the powers active in the Americas. Without Columbus, I would imagine Spain's interest grows more organically.

Well, the Low Countries proved "ungovernable" to the Spanish Crown because Felipe II refused to accept that Protestants could be good subjects (to oversimplify it) and tried to get Burgundy to give up their freedoms in favor of being ruled from Madrid. IN ttl, there's no reason that the king of England would try and do the same, even if he did conquer it. Although I could imagine France would be against any kind of resumption of the 100YW (since that what it would look like).

Wasn't England and Spain going to be in a personal union in TTL?

And with a PoD so far back, I don't think we can safely say that Protestantism would exist in any recognizable form or that (if it did) the Low Countries would go Protestant the way they did OTL. Heck, one might have Spain going "Protestant" and the Low Countries remaining Catholic in TTL.

fasquardon
 
Well, the Basque fishermen may have been sailing across the Atlantic before Columbus - certainly they were shortly after Columbus - but as far as I am aware they were mainly visiting the Grand Banks, not making landfall in the new world so much.

The value of those fishing grounds might, however, mean that Spain would put some effort into colonizing Newfoundland in TTL to secure their fishing rights if France and/or Portugal are the powers doing all the conquistadoring down south. From those Newfoundland bases, Spain might then get interested in colonizing North America proper.

True, true.

As such, I don't think that Columbus would be "blocked off".

I meant like by a whole continent that he didn't know was there.

Wasn't England and Spain going to be in a personal union in TTL?

And with a PoD so far back, I don't think we can safely say that Protestantism would exist in any recognizable form or that (if it did) the Low Countries would go Protestant the way they did OTL. Heck, one might have Spain going "Protestant" and the Low Countries remaining Catholic in TTL.

Well, they're gonna have the same royal family, they were pretty demanding of Carlos I when he became king of Aragon and regent of Castile, so we might see Richard and Isabel's younger son (if they have one) or daughter (if they don't) being chosen to rule Spain instead.

As to the Protestantism and the Low Countries breaking away, I was referring to the events that occurred OTL. Part of the reason that the HYW started (IDK how big a role this was), was that with the dynastic shift from the direct Capetians to the Valois, the ports that England usually shipped to in the Low Countries were threatened (or something along those lines, can't remember that well).
 
Top