WI: An Alternate Space Race?

Suppose something goes wrong with Yuri Gagarin's flight (eg., the service module's failure to separate properly causes his reentry module to fail and he burns up during reentry) and consequently the Russians keep the entire affair secret while trying to discover and fix what went wrong. Thus, Alan Shepard is the first man in space on Freedom 7. With the US seeming to have clinched an early victory, what happens to the space race? Is there an equivalent to the Rice speech, and if not (as I think likely), what happens to the US and Soviet space programs? Might we see something more similar to the pre-speech plans, which only contemplated circumlunar flights topping off the decade (that is, something like the Zond or Apollo 8 flights), with landing being a goal for the '70s?
 
There's one big error in your scenario, the Soviets announced Gagarin's flight while he was still in orbit so had he died during re-entry then they couldn't have kept it secret. As to what would have happened, the Soviets might have scaled back their manned programme claiming it was too risky. The Americans would probably have insisted on more test flights of the Mercury capsule before humans were allowed to fly. Certainly I doubt there would have been an Apollo programme.
 

Thande

Donor
If Yuri Gagarin died on re-entry, I think the Soviets wouldn't cover it up, they would admit it but blame it on the Americans (like, "the nefarious capitalists deliberately interfered with our radar beams to ensure this brave hero of the Soviet Union would land fatally" or something).
 
Earlier discussion on a similar POD.

The Apollo Program was already in the planning stages, though it was primarily space station and LEO centered, with a circumlunar flight planned for the 1970s. With more space station focus, the USAF and NASA will be tied together far more closely (developing similar hardware for MOL and the space station ITTL).
 
There's one big error in your scenario, the Soviets announced Gagarin's flight while he was still in orbit so had he died during re-entry then they couldn't have kept it secret. As to what would have happened, the Soviets might have scaled back their manned programme claiming it was too risky. The Americans would probably have insisted on more test flights of the Mercury capsule before humans were allowed to fly. Certainly I doubt there would have been an Apollo programme.

I wasn't aware of that, and neither the Astronautix or Wikipedia articles mention it (and I don't have any better sources on me), so I can just change that to the R-7 blowing up on the pad/misfiring/whatever. There are scenarios where Gagarin doesn't die but the mission isn't successful or the flight is delayed, too. The point is that there is no lunar landing goal, just a circumlunar flight goal or something similar.

@Polish Eagle: Yep, I know that the Apollo Program was going but wasn't centered around lunar landings yet :) I was kinda wondering what would happen if it kept running that way...
 
The Apollo Program was already in the planning stages, though it was primarily space station and LEO centered, with a circumlunar flight planned for the 1970s. With more space station focus, the USAF and NASA will be tied together far more closely (developing similar hardware for MOL and the space station ITTL).

No way would the US have done anything one-tenth as ambitious as Apollo. If the Soviets stopped flying Vostok, Americans would argue over small paper projects until (and unless) the USSR started flying crews again. I think, however, that Vostok flights would resume after a year or so.
 
I wasn't aware of that, and neither the Astronautix or Wikipedia articles mention it (and I don't have any better sources on me), so I can just change that to the R-7 blowing up on the pad/misfiring/whatever. There are scenarios where Gagarin doesn't die but the mission isn't successful or the flight is delayed, too. The point is that there is no lunar landing goal, just a circumlunar flight goal or something similar.

No worries! Have a look at the wiki article on Vostok 1, under the timeline section it gives the time when Radio Moscow made the announcement, which was when Gagarin was over the Straits of Magellan. They had actually been given 3 sealed envelopes with a different statement, one announced success, the second failure, the third was that he was stuck in orbit and made an urgent request for help in retrieving him!

Had Gagarin died onnthe pad then there would still have been a major propaganda coup in being first to orbit. We had a recent thread about what if Sheperd had made it to space first, the consensus was no difference as orbit was the real achievement not a short suborbital flight.
 
No worries! Have a look at the wiki article on Vostok 1, under the timeline section it gives the time when Radio Moscow made the announcement, which was when Gagarin was over the Straits of Magellan. They had actually been given 3 sealed envelopes with a different statement, one announced success, the second failure, the third was that he was stuck in orbit and made an urgent request for help in retrieving him!

Ah, now I see. I was skimming a bit quickly, I guess. Thanks!

Had Gagarin died on the pad then there would still have been a major propaganda coup in being first to orbit. We had a recent thread about what if Sheperd had made it to space first, the consensus was no difference as orbit was the real achievement not a short suborbital flight.

Er...but if he died on the pad he wouldn't have been first to orbit? I mean, unless the rocket blew up in exactly the right way, which would be a hell of a way to go but I don't think would impress anyone, really.

Also, I respectfully disagree that it would not make a difference. If the problem was serious enough that it took until 1962 to fly Vostok 1, then John Glenn might very well have already flown on Friendship 7, which would definitely seem to kill or at least very significantly alter the space race right there...

At the same time, it would be neat if the race was for the circumlunar mission I mentioned, like the Zond or Apollo 8 missions. If you look at history, the Soviets were much closer to "beating" us on that than they were on the lunar landing; I wonder what would have happened if they had?
 
Er...but if he died on the pad he wouldn't have been first to orbit? I mean, unless the rocket blew up in exactly the right way, which would be a hell of a way to go but I don't think would impress anyone, really.

Also, I respectfully disagree that it would not make a difference. If the problem was serious enough that it took until 1962 to fly Vostok 1, then John Glenn might very well have already flown on Friendship 7, which would definitely seem to kill or at least very significantly alter the space race right there...

At the same time, it would be neat if the race was for the circumlunar mission I mentioned, like the Zond or Apollo 8 missions. If you look at history, the Soviets were much closer to "beating" us on that than they were on the lunar landing; I wonder what would have happened if they had?

The meaning is that Shepard would have been first in space, but a later Soviet would have made the first orbital flight before 1961 was out, thus beating Glenn for that title.

As for a Soviet Circumlunar flight, we had a thread about that about a year ago that I can't seem to find. Basically, a Zond flight goes around the Moon before Apollo 8 launches. The conclusion was that the Soviets would trumpet their success to the world, but the US would note that the Soviets only went circumlunar, and both N-1 rockets only blew up on the pad, indicating that the Soviets can't do a landing. Apollo 11 is accelerated in processing (as are 9 and 10), launches perhaps as early as March or April, and the US wins the day.

However, the aftereffects of a much narrower victory can change American space policy. Perhaps the US decides to sustain its lunar program until they are certain the Soviets have abandoned their efforts at it (and the Soviets can't go and say they never tried to go to the Moon, given that they just did a circumlunar flight before everyone's eyes).
 
The meaning is that Shepard would have been first in space, but a later Soviet would have made the first orbital flight before 1961 was out, thus beating Glenn for that title.

:eek:

Whoops, misread it. Dropping subject, let's move on...

As for a Soviet Circumlunar flight, we had a thread about that about a year ago that I can't seem to find. Basically, a Zond flight goes around the Moon before Apollo 8 launches. The conclusion was that the Soviets would trumpet their success to the world, but the US would note that the Soviets only went circumlunar, and both N-1 rockets only blew up on the pad, indicating that the Soviets can't do a landing. Apollo 11 is accelerated in processing (as are 9 and 10), launches perhaps as early as March or April, and the US wins the day.

However, the aftereffects of a much narrower victory can change American space policy. Perhaps the US decides to sustain its lunar program until they are certain the Soviets have abandoned their efforts at it (and the Soviets can't go and say they never tried to go to the Moon, given that they just did a circumlunar flight before everyone's eyes).

Why are there all these space threads recently that I seem to miss? I dunno that the Apollos would (or could) be accelerated in processing *that* much, but certainly at that stage the US would just push to the Moon. As you say, perhaps some watered-down version of AAP/LESA/LEP would get pushed ahead. However, I was idly speculating on the possibility that the goal had been set as a circumlunar flight, not a lunar landing, before 1970, but then the Soviets beat the US to the punch.
 
Suppose something goes wrong with Yuri Gagarin's flight (eg., the service module's failure to separate properly causes his reentry module to fail and he burns up during reentry) and consequently the Russians keep the entire affair secret while trying to discover and fix what went wrong. Thus, Alan Shepard is the first man in space on Freedom 7. With the US seeming to have clinched an early victory, what happens to the space race? Is there an equivalent to the Rice speech, and if not (as I think likely), what happens to the US and Soviet space programs? Might we see something more similar to the pre-speech plans, which only contemplated circumlunar flights topping off the decade (that is, something like the Zond or Apollo 8 flights), with landing being a goal for the '70s?

There was a near-fatal error with the Vostok 1 flight IOT. When the Reentry and Service Modules were seperated prior to reentry, the cable connecting them failed to seperate and Gagarin was almost spun to his death. It was only at the absolute final moment that the intense heat of reentry burnt through the cable allowing the service module to break free. Moments later, Gagarin ejected from Vostok 1, shaken, but alive - as stated on BBC's Space Race Documentary.

As for the effects, it is likely that - at least for a while - the Soviets will take a more cautious approach to Space Exploration, and will likely use that as their propoganda piece. This should slow things down to a more managable pace for both sides, and could even - paradoxically - put us further ahead today than we are now, with the emphasis on evolutionism, as opposed to reckless firsts. Sorry Krushkhov, your style was just %&*>.
 
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