WI: An Alternate Sekigahara

The battle of Sekigahara in 1600 was one of the most important moments of Japanese history during the Sengoku Jidai. After decades of growing as a junior ally to Nobunaga Oda, and then the same to Hideyoshi, Ieyasu Tokugawa was now primed to take control of Japan for himself now that the former head of the Toyotomi had passed away and left his five year old son to rule. In his way was Mitsunari Ishida and the Western Army, a collection of Daimyo who opposed Ieyasu's grab at power and claimed he sought to overthrow the Toyotomi. They were right, of course, and the battle was clearly over who would rule Japan.

Ieyasu won the battle and became Shogun, leading to a series of events wherein the Tokugawa would remove Hideyori and fully take control of Japan for over two centuries.

So let's explore this battle, or rather this campaign, numerous sieges and battles having been waged during this conflict despite the short period.

How could things have changed from OTL? Let's start off with maybe wondering if the Tokugawa could have had a more decisive vict-No, no, that's sort of impossible. Maybe Torii Mototada survives long enough that Mitsunari is dealt with, maybe Hidetada never attempts his siege of Ueda, and maybe Naomasa Il is not injured when chasing down the Shimazu and wipes their forces out. Either way, it's hard to improve the Tokugawa's position. They won pretty handily, despite it being close at points, and without too many important figures dying.

So with that, we need to turn to the Western Army. Led by Mitsunari Ishida, we can already see the first mistake. Mitsunari rose to the top because of his skills as an administrator and in the tea ceremony, which was a big thing in Oda and then Toyotomi circles, and stayed there due to Hideyoshi's favour. He had skills, this was true, but not in military matters or in inter-personal relations. He could be an accomplished diplomat, convincing his friend Yoshitsugu Otani (who was off to join the Tokugawa) to join him and swayed Hideaki Kobayakawa by offering to make him Kampaku until Hideyori was of age.

That said, he wasn't great at it when it most counted. Otherwise loyal Toyotomi retainers such as Kiyomasa Kato and Masanori Fukushima joined Ieyasu because Fuck Mitsunari, and his plot to assassinate Ieyasu failed so badly that the latter chose to save him from harm because he was the ideal opponent. There were flashes of skill, such as choosing to fight in Sekigahara after Sakon's raid in the Tokugawa, and in his strategy throughout, but he was an alienating character who engineered his own destruction in the battle.

Despite the farces, bickering, and betrayals that defined this coalition, the Western Army did have a strong chance of victory, and there are some scenarios to explore to see how this could have been.

POD #1: The Shimazu Night-Raid at Ogaki

After the raid on the Tokugawa in what would be known as the Battle of Kuisegawa IOTL, there was deliberation on how to deal with the Tokugawa. Mitsunari knew that Ogaki wasn't Ieyasu's only option and that he could easily bypass Ogaki Castle (the base of the Western Army) and head for Osaka where Hideyori was or Mitsunari's home castle of Sawayama. In deliberations, one suggestion was offered by Yoshihiro Shimazu. Ieyasu's forces had only just arrived with his Tokaido forces (his son Hidetada handling the Nakasendo) after a two-week long march in their armour. The forces were tired, hungry, and generally open to a surprise night-raid. Ukita Hideie, Mitsunari's second in command, supported the plan.

The highly-overrated Sakon Shima, however, saw the plan as cowardly and used his momentum from Kuisegawa to convince Ukita to reject the Shimazu plan. This led to Mitsunari choosing to fight in Sekigahara, and the Shimazu feeling insulted enough to refuse to advance when ordered and only attacked when they felt like it.

The plan could have easily worked. Yoshihiro's logic was solid, the army was tired, and I imagine the Eastern Army thought that the time for ambushes had ended with Sakon's efforts. At best, Ieyasu may have been slain and the war won. What's more likely is that the army is savaged and either retreat or hold their position to consider their next move. Ieyasu thought that time was of the essence when it came to taking Osaka and Sawayama, which was what drove him into Sekigahara IOTL, and there is a key element that may drive him there as well.

Hidetada was meant to arrive with the Nakasendo forces, numbering around 38,000, to beef up the Tokugawa forces whilst the Date and others dealt with the Uesugi in the East. Instead, he's dealing with Ueda and may possibly arrive at a roughly similar time to OTL, meaning right after the battle. If Mitsunari gets the flash of brilliance he did IOTL, and Ieyasu arrives at roughly the same time, the battle might have been different had certain generals been slain ITTL.

Of course the numbers game isn't everything. Maybe Ieyasu waits a while longer and meets with Hidetada, replacing the lost soldiers and raising morale. Hideaki may take longer to betray the cause, but both he and the Mori still have factors playing against Mitsunari that the Shimazu raid isn't going to solve. Unless it ends the man himself, the raid may only just give the Western Army a second meaningful victory.

POD #2: Terumoto Mori leads the Western Army

Terumoto Mori gets a raw deal. Seen as a lesser man to his grandfather and father, he often gets painted as indecisive, and easily fooled. When it comes to your Samurai Warriors and Sengoku Basara, the man even gets replaced by his grandfather Motonari Mori (who died in 1571), and is barely a foot-note when it comes to their depictions of the Sengoku Jidai, let alone the Sekigahara Campaign.

This is anything but the truth.

One of Hideyoshi's chosen advisers for Hideyori alongside Toshiie Maeda, Ieyasu, Kagekatsu Ueusgi, and Ukita Hideie, Terumoto was one of the reasons why the Western Army was a viable force. Without him, the Western Army would have lacked a large portion of the men and wealth needed to be a viable opponent to Ieyasu. It was for that reason that Yoshitsugu had convinced Mitsunari to grant Terumoto the rank of Commander In Chief of the Western Army, despite Mitsunari's ego demanding that he be the one in charge.

Terumoto, however, was then forced to remain in Osaka Castle whilst his cousin Hidemoto (another unfairly maligned general) represented the Mori in battle as Mitsunari's price. This angered many Mori retainers including Kikkawa Hiroie who wrote letters to Eastern Army generals such as Kuroda Nagamasa and Il Naomasa offering to keep the Mori from entering battle in exchange for leniency for the Mori when Ieyasu won. This was not carried out by Ieyasu, who likely never intended to due to Terumoto's powerful position, but Kikkawa still managed to prevent the Mori from entering battle by preventing a charge down from the mountain where they had waited. Ieyasu thus avoided being boxed in as per Mitsunari's plan.

Let's say then that Terumoto decides that if he's the Commander in Chief, then he's the damn Commander in Chief and what he says goes. Mitsunari is instead told to wait at Osaka whilst Terumoto handles military affairs. There'd be a likely stand-off, but the former will likely bend if Terumoto threatens neutrality or worse. Terumoto was a skilled commander who knew when to delegate. We'd see the Shimazu night-raid be executed, and then have Mount Nagyu be held by a different commander instead of Hidemoto Mori, maybe Sakon Shima, Ukita Hideie, or Yoshitsugu Otani?

Another thing to consider is the Osaka hostages, but that depends on whether Gracia Hosokawa (Mitsuhide Akechi's daughter) actually committed suicide or if her death was ordered by her husband Tadaoki to ensure that she couldn't be used as a hostage/served as a martyr to weaken Mitsunari with. Terumoto may use a lighter touch than Mitsunari, but the results may be the same in terms of fallout leading to the escape of many other generals' wives.

Without Kikkawa's betrayal, we'd likely see the Tokugawa become flanked from the front and behind. Hideaki Kobayakawa had been unsure on whether to betray the Western Army, so it could be that the potential loss of the Tokugawa drives him to actually join in with the Western Army and charge in from his flank. The Tokugawa are smashed and Ieyasu is killed or captured, Kobayakawa serves as Kampaku (he was Terumoto's cousin by adoption), and it all seems fine, right?

Well, there is the question of who rules. Mori or Toyotomi? Not to mention Mitsunari's potentially bruised ego playing a role in court games. Hideaki's death may signal TTL's version of the Siege of Osaka in terms of wrapping things up.

POD #3: Terumoto Mori joins the Eastern Army

Yes, yes, I know what I said about the Tokugawa having a broadly decent campaign, but bear with me.

Terumoto Mori was conflicted IOTL on who to join. He was leaning towards Ieyasu, and both Kikkawa Hiroie and Hidemoto Mori supported this option as the likely winner, and had to think about preserving his lands worth 1.2 million koku (1 being the amount of rice needed to feed one person for a year) during the conflict. It was the advice of Ekei Ankokuji that swayed him to the Western Army, just as he did with Hideyoshi's peace offer in 1582. We all know how that went, and Terumoto lost his home province of Aki and ended up with only 360,000 koku worth of land only due to Kikkwa Hiroie's protestations to Ieyasu.

The POD here is obvious, Terumoto joins the Eastern Army instead of the Western Army, despite Ekei and Yoshitsugu's offer of Commander in Chief. This immediately creates an issue for Mitsunari and Ieyasu. For Mitsunari, his whole plan relied on Ieyasu being lured east by the Uesugi and then smashed by the Western Army while he was busy there. Only now it seems that he's the one who is being flanked on two sides now. If he declares war, he has to fight the Mori and Eastern Army, but if he doesn't then Ieyasu is just going to crush the Uesugi and leave him without allies.

For Ieyasu, he now has a viable rival to deal with, even if the Uesugi and Mitsunari are wiped out. Both men had wealthy provinces, an old saying was that Ieyasu could create a road of rice from Kanto to Kyoto, while Terumoto could make a road of gold and silver from his lands to Kyoto. The campaign ITTL will be much easier, Mitsunari may try and move out, reasoning that the Uesugi will keep Ieyasu busy, but then he gets promptly destroyed facing the Mori and Ieyasu.

The problem for the Tokugawa now lies in how the West is controlled by the Mori, who will be holding Osaka, which will make it harder for Ieyasu to assume the rank of Shogun while the Mori are around to note the defiance of Hideyori's authority. Both Ieyasu and Terumoto IOTL lived long enough to see OTL's Siege of Osaka, and a conflict would be inevitable, so TTL's version of the Siege of Osaka may be a wider-scale campaign in terms of conquest. I'd put money on the Tokugawa, but not without a few more bloody noses than OTL, especially now that Toyotomi loyalists who hated Mitsunari have an easier banner to fight under.

So there are the PODs for Sekigahara. You could argue that 'Kikkawa Hiroie not preventing the Mori from attacking' is one, but I think the impact is broadly similar to Terumoto being the de facto as well as de jure leader, in that the Mori and Mitsunari would eventually come to blows.

Any thoughts or comments?
 
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I have no idea whats going on, but I am massively impressed by your knowledge (or what looks like knowledge, I really have no idea).
 
POD No. 2 was interesting, never knew there was a betrayal OTL. In the battlefield.
So what would happen from this WI? A longer Civil War? A divided Japan? The Toyotomi/Moris winning all of Japan? Certainly an interesting possibility.
 
I have no idea whats going on, but I am massively impressed by your knowledge (or what looks like knowledge, I really have no idea).

It's nice to have, but makes discussion difficult. I think Now Blooms the Tudor Rose by Space Oddity, who recommended a lot of the books I read, is one of the few TLs to actually cover Sengoku Japan.

A good deal of it comes from Stephen Turnball's works, one of the few works on Sengoku Japan in the Anglosphere. My interest was linked with Three Kingdoms China, which came from my playing the Dynasty/Samurai Warriors franchise. It does make going back to them tricky, as I now keep asking myself what Toyohisa Shimazu did to deserve being a PC over Terumoto Mori beyond die to Il forces at Sekigahara, or why Guan Suo, who didn't even exist, was chosen over Cao Rui the Emperor who gave his concubines and other women actual government positions.

There are things that Turnball says that I disagree with. His biography on Hideyoshi seems to ignore the decline of his later years a bit, but other than that he does manage to avoid the Nobunaga-worship that can influence the Anglosphere a bit. If he ever did a biography of Nobunaga, I'd happily read it, especially as the only English-language one costs at least £150. His work on the Imjin War comes highly recommended, showing why Japan's efforts were doomed from the start in contrast to the normal assumption of Japan as Uber Naval/Conquering Power.

POD No. 2 was interesting, never knew there was a betrayal OTL. In the battlefield.
So what would happen from this WI? A longer Civil War? A divided Japan? The Toyotomi/Moris winning all of Japan? Certainly an interesting possibility.

Of the whole campaign, my favourite battle is the Siege of Tanabe Castle. Hosokawa Fujitaka was Gracia's father-in-law, angered by her death from Mitsunari's actions (Tadaoki didn't really care, likely having ordered her death) and thus sided with Ieyasu and refused to surrender. His enemies were all former students, however, and he was a valued scholar and member of the Imperial Court. Cannons filled only with gunpowder were fired, his students gave half-hearted attacks, and the Imperial Court first gained permission to rescue valuable, one-of-a-kind works and poems, and then ordered Fujitaka to stand down.

The whole saga basically kept thousands of men from arriving at Sekigahara when needed. An absolute farce of a battle, and all the more glorious for it.

My favourite anecdote of the battle itself comes way after it. A Prussian general called Jakob Mekel during the Meiji Restoration was asking about the military history and was shown a map of Sekigahara with each force's position pointed out to him. Despite being told that the Tokugawa won earlier, the second he was told which army was which he exclaimed that the Western Army must have won. It was a Crane's Wing formation, Ukita Hideie did a very good job of absorbing the attack from Ieyasu's shock-troops, almost too good when they were driving the Tokugawa too far back, and the lay-out of the valley meant that the formation kicking in would box Ieyasu in without escape.

What we saw was two, three if you counted the Shimazu disregarding orders and acting on their own initiative is a betrayal, betrayals that destroyed Mitsunari's west flank. Literally the entire west flank either betrayed him, would fall to the traitors, or couldn't enter the fray.

Hidemoto is the most understandable. Historians apparently give him shit for favouring the Tokugawa and this supposedly not charging down anyway when Kikkawa refused to lead the charge from the base of the mountain. Personally, I can see why running down his cousin for being overly cautious (from where he was standing) didn't exactly enter Hidemoto's mind. By the time that the Mori got news of the battle, it came from the retreating Shimazu who mentioned the defeat to them.

Not exactly rallying words.

The last betrayal came from Hideaki Kobayakawa and I sincerely sympathise with him on this. Mitsunari insulted him in front of his adopted father on his record in the Second Korean Invasion and it wasn't too justified, and Ieyasu saved Hideaki from any actual punishment. Not to mention that Lady Yodogami (who honestly did a lot to ruin the Toyotomi) told Hideaki to follow his conscience-with excessive hints towards Hideaki's conscience being to fight by Ieyasu's side-which must have felt like his recently departed father telling him something.

On the other hand, Mitsunari was clearly the best thing for Hideyori. After his part in the Fushimi Castle siege that killed Ieyasu's friend Torii Mototada, the odds of being accepted back into the Eastern Army must have seemed slim. It took Ieyasu sending a subordinate up and firing just behind Hideaki's position to get him moving. Ieyasu forgave him and gave him good provinces, but the guilt must have accelerated Hideaki's poor health and drove him to an early death.

Unfortunately, that probably would have happened had the Western Army won, as the guilt would have been more on betraying a friend like Ieyasu for Mitsunari. History might have been kinder to him, however, if that makes enough of a difference.

Terumoto would have prevented all of this. Mitsunari allowed Sakon to insult the Shimazu for their night-raid idea (when Sakon got his victory through raids and treachery), and his best move was something Terumoto would have easily done ITTL. Kikkawa wouldn't have made a deal with the Tokugawa without his lord being stuck in Osaka, and Kobayakawa might have been spooked into fighting for the Western Army once the Tokugawa seem doomed.

In terms of the aftermath, I doubt Ieyasu would be able to escape this time. At Mikatakagahara, he had an open escape route, but here he'd be flanked on two sides and rapidly lose his path via the Nakasendo. The hope for the Tokugawa would lie in a 21 year-old Hidetada leading an army defeated at Ueda, now seeing the Tokaido forces get demolished. He'd escape for Edo, but it would be through hostile territory and end up in a similar position to the Western Army remnants IOTL. Doomed and lucky to be made a monk, if not killed.

Tadateru might get lucky if the Mori/Toyotomi (Ishida) conflict gives him the chance to side with the Mori. The Uesugi and Satake would likely side with Mitsunari, and it would allow Masamune and the Tokugawa to make some gains in siding with the winning team. Honestly, I see the conflict as a year and a half at most. Yoshitsugu Otani was the best strategist for Mitsunari and he was already dying, crippled, and blind from leprosy, which would leave Mitsunari with a bold weathervane like Ukita Hideie and Sakon Shima.

Not the best team.
 
1 and 2 it all depends on what happens with Hideyori, you would have to the the allies more committed to peace whoever wins. The problem is that this goes back the to old problems of the Tokugawa a system not built on might but loyalty and intimidation only go so far. 3 If the Mori salvage their lot then it would basically cut the limbs off something like the Boshin War going the way it did. Since there will be less Tozama daimyos who held a grudge against the Shogun.
 
I really don't know if Terumoto joining the East will guarantee him keeping Aki. Ieyasu is a cautious man and will see him as a possible threat.

Wait, where is the Sanada in all of this PODs? They might also become a major factor in that battle.
 
1 and 2 it all depends on what happens with Hideyori, you would have to the the allies more committed to peace whoever wins. The problem is that this goes back the to old problems of the Tokugawa a system not built on might but loyalty and intimidation only go so far. 3 If the Mori salvage their lot then it would basically cut the limbs off something like the Boshin War going the way it did. Since there will be less Tozama daimyos who held a grudge against the Shogun.

The Shimazu Night-Raid would have had a lot going for it. It'd have covered the Western Army falling back to Sekigahara, the Eastern Army was never as vulnerable as then, and it was in the midst of an unexpectedly heavy storm. Had Ieyasu been slain, there might have been some who'd note the irony of one of Yoshimoto Imagawa's top men (he had been what Sun Jian and then Ce had been for Yuan Shu in 3 Kingdoms China) being killed in similar circumstances.

It's still the most dependent on butterflies. All Ieyasu has to do is wait until the afternoon to salvage losses and then Hidetada turns up with lots of men and supplies, to a much better reception than OTL. Mitsunari's formations might have been stronger and more built-in, but his position was already pretty ideal and it wouldn't change the main factors that doomed him.

In terms of 'Terumoto leads the Western Army', I doubt there wouldn't be a Mori/Toyotomi conflict. The nature of many warlords throughout the period had been to gather power, and those that didn't tended to rely on their leader (the Uesugi), or the regional circumstances (the Hojo), and even they were cut-throat when needed. Kobayakawa will be doing his best, but his death opens a power vacuum since Hideyori wouldn't be of majority age. Terumoto would most likely try to claim Hideaki's rank as Kampaku, and then deal with the backlash from Mitsunari and others.

It's a war I see the Mori winning. Yoshitsugu Otani was Mitsunari's best man and he was all but dead by Sekigahara, leaving him with Sakon Shima, Ukita Hideie, and Konishi Yukinaga. The last is a skilled commander, and the second is good in a battle, but Sakon was Mitsunari's man and Ukita tended to go with the flow. Not to mention that the Shimazu would likely back him.

On the Boshin War, I think trying to unravel that is a difficult job. It's so far into the future that touching it would be near-impossible with the PODs we have, but I will say that Ieyasu was a man of his time, and his conclusions were sound enough on how to maintain order. After all, it did last for over two hundred years with relative stability for a region that knew no such thing since the Onin War.

I really don't know if Terumoto joining the East will guarantee him keeping Aki. Ieyasu is a cautious man and will see him as a possible threat.

Wait, where is the Sanada in all of this PODs? They might also become a major factor in that battle.

Ieyasu wouldn't have much to do about it. Terumoto joining the Western Army was a godsend, although it must not have seemed like it at the time. After Sekigahara, Ieyasu was the only one of the original Tairo left with a viable army. Kikkawa was extremely naive to assume that the Mori would be left alone after a Tokugawa victory, and the 'the Commander in Chief must fight/more involved than I originally thought' excuse was just a way of justifying crippling one of his last actual rivals.

There's no doubt that Mitsunari, who'd have to march without the Mori to save the Uesugi, would be crushed. The issue for Ieyasu is that he's got a rival who has a great amount of wealth and men facing him, which means he can't claim the Shogunate or go too far without the Mori claiming he's usurping the Toyotomi. I imagine people like Ukita Hideie, Konishi Yukinaga, and even Mitsunari will be finding secret sanctuary in Mori lands, with that being an area of contention.

Assuming the Mori occupy Osaka, I imagine Hideaki Kobayakawa will be trying to play peace-maker as well between the Mori and Tokugawa, before his death. Ieyasu would be in a bad position ITTL, enough power that pro-Toyotomi suspect him, but not enough for it to not matter or crush Hideyori. Not to mention he's facing an opponent just as happy to play the waiting-game as him, and can play for longer in hindsight.

The Sanada, and I say this with full admiration for the role Nobushige played at Osaka, weren't too vital to the grand scheme of things. Nobushige's charge played into the mythology of the era and was useful for both pro and anti-Tokugawa works, and thus he entered the history books and other depictions with a slightly over-inflated role in things. For example, despite what Samurai Warriors and Sengoku Basara seem to think, he never served under Shingen Takeda because he was 5-6 when Shingen died. The same is true for Sakon Shima, although he was of the appropriate age, who if anything likely got his start under the overall banner of the Oda.

That said, they would have a role to play. Depending on how the Shimazu Night-Raid POD goes in terms of butterflies, Masayuki's skill would be seen as backfiring on him, albeit very undeserved. Hidetada being with Ieyasu at the proper time would have exposed him to the night-raid and removed any boost his presence might have given. Again, it'd be very undeserved considering that Masayuki was one of the more unappreciated geniuses of his time who symbolised the bastardy way that some lords had to act during this time. He deserves to be given more attention.

In 'Terumoto leads the Western Army', I can see Masayuki and Nobushige keeping Nobuyuki from being killed, although he'd be getting their OTL fate of living in a guarded-monastery whilst his family is under Sanada protection. Once things go to arms, I can see a reverse of the Sekigahara situation breaking out. Masayuki breaking Nobuyuki out and the two siding with Terumoto Mori against Mitsunari, whilst Nobushige/Yukimura goes to join with the Uesugi who'd likely ally with the Toyotomi/Mitsunari.

When it comes to the 'Terumoto joins the Eastern Army' POD, I don't doubt who Nobushige would join. Masayuki probably wouldn't go with Nobushige, even if it was before his death in 1611, as a way of playing to both sides. Keep Nobuyuki out of trouble, while Nobushige fosters some goodwill with the Mori/Toyotomi.

Again, Masayuki doesn't get enough credit. He deserves to be a PC in Samurai Warriors, considering that he's a Magnificent Bastard of his time the likes of which only those such as Hosokawa Tadaoki (who convinced Maeda Toshinaga to side with Ieyasu and keep his father Toshiie from openly condemning him. Not to mention possibly ordered his own wife's death to sabotage Mitsunari) can match.

EDIT: Really great conversations here, by the way.
 
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