WI: Ameripox

What if a disease is able to evolve in the Western Hemisphere, lets say it came over with people on the Bering Land Bridge some millions of years ago, that was incredibly deadly. Over time Native Americans are able to build a resistance to it but still remain carriers. When the Europeans finally arrive it results in a very different, more deadly Colombian Exchange. In under a decade the new disease sweeps Europe and kills, lets say, 70%ish of the European population (while their diseases decimate the Native population). How would that change world history?
 
What if a disease is able to evolve in the Western Hemisphere, lets say it came over with people on the Bering Land Bridge some millions of years ago, that was incredibly deadly. Over time Native Americans are able to build a resistance to it but still remain carriers. When the Europeans finally arrive it results in a very different, more deadly Colombian Exchange. In under a decade the new disease sweeps Europe and kills, lets say, 70%ish of the European population (while their diseases decimate the Native population). How would that change world history?

If you haven't heard of it already, "The Years of Rice and Salt" is an alt-history novel that has a sort of similar premise to the one you suggest. Although rather than it being an American disease that wipes out Europeans, it's the Black Death - which, ITTL, wipes out 99% of Europe's population.

But, in responding to your original idea, I have a thought: how does this alt-plague reach Europe? If it's as deadly as you suggest, wouldn't it likely kill the explorers before they returned to Europe? And if they never returned from their voyage, and subsequent explorers found a similar fate, wouldn't it just encourage Europeans to stay away from whatever's across the pond?
 
But, in responding to your original idea, I have a thought: how does this alt-plague reach Europe? If it's as deadly as you suggest, wouldn't it likely kill the explorers before they returned to Europe? And if they never returned from their voyage, and subsequent explorers found a similar fate, wouldn't it just encourage Europeans to stay away from whatever's across the pond?
In a statistical miracle the crew is able to survive long enough to get back to port before finally dying. Much like the black death a combination of dense urban areas like Libson and Cordoba, mixed with transmission by rats and fleas and you got another plague on your hands. I know its a bit hand wavy but eh, whaddya gonna do?
 
In a statistical miracle the crew is able to survive long enough to get back to port before finally dying. Much like the black death a combination of dense urban areas like Libson and Cordoba, mixed with transmission by rats and fleas and you got another plague on your hands. I know its a bit hand wavy but eh, whaddya gonna do?

In this case, I think much the same thing happens. Aside from the upheaval Europe would obviously face from 70% of its population being wiped out, the remaining Europeans would probably never dream of going back to the Americas. As far as the impact on the rest of the world goes, I'm not much of an expert, but I would imagine that the Islamic world becomes much, much more powerful. They'd then become the next most likely to venture out of the Old World, IMO, and potentially have the benefit of resistance to this Ameripox (depending on how long after the Europeans went, of course). Which has a long, long list of butterflies.
 

Toraach

Banned
With 70% of the European population wiped out, the Moors may try to re-colonize Iberia, giving them a good launch-off point to travel to the Americas. Slowly by slowly, the Moors slowly create colonies in the Americas. The locals would probably also be vulnerable to Old World diseases, so eventually they would build resistance.
So are moors sudenly resistant and not so far geneticaly from them population of the Iberian Peninsual isn't? The Black Death killed not only in Europe, but in the Middle East and North Africa also.
 
lets say, 70%ish of the European population (while their diseases decimate the Native population). How would that change world history?

70% ish is very optimistic for a disease. The deadliest contagious viral diseases (which seem to be what you're describing) like smallpox seem to generally kill about 1/3 of the population in a virgin epidemic, all else being equal, and can kill less than that if a population has the option to scatter (which Europeans west of the steppes probably wouldn't).

The massive drop in Native American population came as a result of a mix of disease, violence and dispossession which prevented their numbers from recovering. Disease alone can crater Europe's population, but depending on the disease will not do it for long. Depends on the epidemiology, though-a Western Hemisphere yellow fever or malaria that establishes itself in mosquito or sandfly populations around the Mediterranean, for example, could really fuck with the human population there and see large amounts of land become and stay empty for centuries. A smallpox or measles equivalent, on the other hand, would burn through everywhere but would leave behind immune individuals who could recover over the course of a few generations.

That said, assuming this is an early modern and not a Norse introduction of the disease, then Europe is being hit at a sensitive time. Tensions between different monarchies and social and religious movements are ripe and about to explode. A disease that hits Europe, let's say transported back with Cortes just for shits and giggles, is going to leave in its wake a whole bunch of millenarian movements, including alt-Protestant and uber-Catholic movements reacting to them, with a 'moderate' Catholic ideology trying to keep the status quo for the nobility and church mainly by burning as many disease survivors as possible at the stake.

The resulting wars could see Europe's population fail to recover from quite some time, as violence, famine, and native diseases like typhus and typhoid fever run rampant in addition to the New World plague. IOTL, some of the diseases that affected Native Americans like cocozotli (sp?) may have been indigenous diseases, which just had good conditions to spread at a very bad time in the wake of the conquista.

So doomsday scenario is a smallpox equivalent kills a third of the population in mainland Europe, and then for most of Central Europe, that population drops further as a very nastier version of the Schmalkaldic wars occur, with concurrent wars in Scandinavia, Britain, France and possibly Northern Italy over the next several decades.

This will, I think, delay mass European colonization of the Americas for quite some time beyond a few autonomous colonies with European elites ruling over Native subjects. A re-run of the aftermath of the Black Death sees wealth and opportunity increase after the wars, with vast tracts of land open for the common farmer to make money off of, generating wealth for the common people and artisans in urban areas. A reassertion of the social hierarchy will see elites try to keep control by limiting emigration to the Americas-either way, the Natives have a little breathing space, and while I don't think it will be enough to avoid colonization altogether, I think we could see independent Native nations surviving contact ITTL, with this world's equivalent of the Inca and Maya being especially good candidates for keeping independence.
 
With 70% of the European population wiped out, the Moors may try to re-colonize Iberia, giving them a good launch-off point to travel to the Americas. Slowly by slowly, the Moors slowly create colonies in the Americas. The locals would probably also be vulnerable to Old World diseases, so eventually they would build resistance.
The moors would also be devastated by the plague, and due to there being much more agriculture in Europe then North Africa, the Europeans would likely recover within 300-400 years while North Africa might never recover
 
The moors would also be devastated by the plague, and due to there being much more agriculture in Europe then North Africa, the Europeans would likely recover within 300-400 years while North Africa might never recover

I assumed only Europe was affected by the pox
 
What if a disease is able to evolve in the Western Hemisphere, lets say it came over with people on the Bering Land Bridge some millions of years ago, that was incredibly deadly. Over time Native Americans are able to build a resistance to it but still remain carriers. When the Europeans finally arrive it results in a very different, more deadly Colombian Exchange. In under a decade the new disease sweeps Europe and kills, lets say, 70%ish of the European population (while their diseases decimate the Native population). How would that change world history?

In general evolution is considered ASB. Except for some reason whenever evolution is caused by a POD involving artificial selection (say... humans breed diploid fertile bananas instead of sterile triploid AAA bananas) it's a normal POD.

First of all, the Europeans were not completely immune to smallpox. There were small epidemics now and then. If there were not any, there would be no smallpox to give to the native Americans since the virus can't last long without replicating (ie, carriers don't carry it for very long before it goes away completely)

So if the only native Americas are either negative for Ameripox and resistant or carriers. then in a decade or so, there would be no Ameripox left.
 
I think the colonization of the Americas would happen far slower, but I doubt the disease will get any serious traction in Europe short of being some sort of ASB designed super weapon. The only way the disease could get back to Europe would be by returning colonists, which in the early days didn't happen to often (at least, not after the colonists had spent months in the new world, easily long enough for this disease to kill them). Remember, this disease has to make the 2 week journey to Europe without harming the crew, otherwise the ship will not return. The problem with this concept is this incredibly infectious and deadly disease has to not be incredibly infectious and deadly for months, then suddenly incredibly infectious and deadly once it gets to Europe. And it has to deal with a region that has a basic understanding of what a disease is and thus effective countermeasures (like burning clothes of the deceased and medical treatment based on science).
 
In Lands of Red and Gold by @Jared there are several diseases that negatively affect the Old World, but thats a complete different scenario aint it?
 
And it has to deal with a region that has a basic understanding of what a disease is and thus effective countermeasures (like burning clothes of the deceased and medical treatment based on science).

Most of your points that a disease that is infectious would kill or incapacitate the crew first and never make it back is vaild, but I don't agree with this one. When the disease gets on a colonist on a ship back, suppose it spreads to crewman A. Then to crewman B. And then to crewman C. And let's say each transmission takes... 3 days. And then somehow the ship gets back to Europe despite 3/4 of the crew being not fit to man the ship due to being too weak or too dead (actually the ship isn't docking with a skeleton crew trust me)

The Europeans have a better understanding of what the disease is compared to the American Indians. They don't understand what a disease is at all. There are two theories at this time. the prevailing was the four humors one, which will lead to them trying to figure out which humor is out of balance (not helpful).

The miasma theory was proposed by Romans, but I don't think any doctor serious considered this until much later. Anyways, according to the miasma theory, quarantine, burning bodies, keeping fecal matter from water supplies, aromatic herbs, low population densities, and washing dirty (I mean visibly or olfactory dirty not in the medical term) hands is the key. Oh and also treat the patients of their symptoms so they don't die.

Oh yeah... neither disease idea is correct. So while you are right Ameripox isn't getting to Europe, if it does the Europeans don't know how to deal with it all.
 
The miasma theory was proposed by Romans, but I don't think any doctor serious considered this until much later. Anyways, according to the miasma theory, quarantine, burning bodies, keeping fecal matter from water supplies, aromatic herbs, low population densities, and washing dirty (I mean visibly or olfactory dirty not in the medical term) hands is the key. Oh and also treat the patients of their symptoms so they don't die.

Oh yeah... neither disease idea is correct. So while you are right Ameripox isn't getting to Europe, if it does the Europeans don't know how to deal with it all.

The miasma theory would have actually worked fairly well. Burning bodies, keeping fecal matter from the water and quarantine would impede the spread of a disease. Just for the record, we are talking about the 1500s here. At the time, doctors actually knew what a disease was, even though they may have no idea the exact nature of it (many thought it was a gas). If a ship turned up with three quarters of it's crew dead and the rest dying, doctors would know that the ship has been contaminated, and may attempt to bar crew from leaving port.
 
70% ish is very optimistic for a disease. The deadliest contagious viral diseases (which seem to be what you're describing) like smallpox seem to generally kill about 1/3 of the population in a virgin epidemic, all else being equal, and can kill less than that if a population has the option to scatter (which Europeans west of the steppes probably wouldn't).

The massive drop in Native American population came as a result of a mix of disease, violence and dispossession which prevented their numbers from recovering. Disease alone can crater Europe's population, but depending on the disease will not do it for long. Depends on the epidemiology, though-a Western Hemisphere yellow fever or malaria that establishes itself in mosquito or sandfly populations around the Mediterranean, for example, could really fuck with the human population there and see large amounts of land become and stay empty for centuries. A smallpox or measles equivalent, on the other hand, would burn through everywhere but would leave behind immune individuals who could recover over the course of a few generations.
It is very telling that, despite a record of Plains Indian winter counts stretching centuries, there are only a few recorded events of disease, and those events follow years of famine or war.

Physiological and even psychological stresses were and are an important factor in weakening an otherwise healthy immune system. These stresses played a key role in rendering the Americas more susceptible to epidemic. In the Eastern Woodlands they began with slave raids and the wider native slave trade completely overturning the political structure of the region with warfare, famine and migrations. Paul Kelton's Epidemics and Enslavement: Biological Catastrophe in the Native Southeast provides a great explanation for the kind of stuff that was going on at the time.

If Europe is already undergoing some kind of heavy strife, complete with people burning crops and hiding behind cramped town walls, they're going to be ripe for such an introduction of disease, if not compounded with diseases of their own.
IOTL, some of the diseases that affected Native Americans like cocozotli (sp?) may have been indigenous diseases, which just had good conditions to spread at a very bad time in the wake of the conquista.
Cocoliztli :)

Yeah, such is the nature of plagues. They just don't know when to show up when we're ready for them. In recent months the press has been somewhat jumpy with identifying it as a form of paratyphoid based on a discovery of a Salmonella strain in the teeth of a few buried victims, but scientists are more careful about that conclusion as there's a million things they haven't checked for. I think the consensus still points to it being some viral variant of hantavirus spread by cotton rats (it has just the right conditions for outbreak you'd expect and the path taken fits in very well). The Americas actually have a pretty wide diversity of hantaviruses. Any one of them could hypothetically mutate into a strain transmissible by humans(as we know the Andes virus does) if they evolved alongside a dense agricultural community long enough.

Funny enough, disease was a big problem for the Spanish trying to colonize the modern-day American South. It's quite interesting that de Soto (along with a hundred other Spaniards) actually got sick and died during his expedition into the Eastern Woodlands, contracting illness outside the incubation period of most Old World diseases, and archaeological sites of places visited by de Soto's entrada having no evidence of deaths by disease (though death by pike-to-the-face appears in some burials). Narvaez had even worse luck in the previous expedition, losing hundreds more.
Let's...not go there.

Really.
 
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