WI: Americapox

Chimera0205

Banned
It all started with a simple cough. Cortez and his men stood in a amazing city. Having just conquered the second greatest civilisation on an entire continent. It shouldve been the greatest moment in Castilian history. A massive empire crumbled by a mere couple hundred spainards (and a couple tens of thousands of native allys but thats not important compared to the glory of castille). But during the celebration a spainard started cough. At first they thought nothing of it after all deisese was ever present threat in the pre penicillin world. So they celebrated there victory and returned to Spain to tell of thier conquest. Little did they the horrors they were bringing to thier homeland.

Scientists and historians alike have debated its origin. Some say it originated from Aztec Turkeys. Others say it reached Mesoamerica from thr andes and actually originated from the Llama or the Ginue Pig but the one thing we do know for sure is that 1 year after Cortez and his friends made there triumphant return to Castille 25 percent of the population lay dead.


What happened next?
 

zhropkick

Banned
Jared's TL Lands of Red and Gold, in which Australian Aboriginals end up developing agriculture using a yam that didn't exist ITTL in the Murray-Darling Basin, has an Australian plague called Marnitja which kills a bunch of people in Europe. It's not as bad as the 25% figure you're suggesting, but he does talk about it delaying technology by a few decades and it does alter European politics a lot by doing a number on the continent's royal families. It also affects the way in which events elsewhere, such as the collapse of the Ming dynasty, occur. Maybe the Spanish Habsburgs collapse sooner than in OTL seeing as the disease will kill members of their family but they'll still be hellbent on inbreeding to keep possessions within their family?
 
As a story, I like the idea-very poetic justice.

Epidemiologically speaking, it's not likely that Cortez and his men would contract the disease and then trudge all the way back to the Caribbean, and from there to Spain, without the disease manifesting itself first; the survivors would be unlikely to be contagious by the time they reach Spain. A think what would be more likely to happen is Cortez and his men die within a week of being in Tenochtitlan, just one of at that point several failed Spanish attempts to attack the mainland. The Spanish open up peaceful trade with the Mesoamericans, and just like the Portuguese in Africa stick to a few small trade outposts to avoid contracting lethal diseases. It would probably take a few decades of contact with the mainland-let's say about 25 years-before the disease hops to the Canaries or Azores, and from there to Eurasia. So around 1546-1550 timeframe.

When it does come, Americapox is going to be really, really bad in Europe. The reason is because we're in the full swing of the Reformation, so Europe is basically a tinderbox of potential Daesh-like religious violence. Once the disease sweeps in-if it's as deadly as smallpox, we can expect it to kill about a third of the population in the areas it spreads-it will fuel apocalyptic fervor and trigger massive religious war. In addition to the violence, war is likely to cause famine as crops are destroyed and spread native diseases like typhus, increasing the kill factor.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Well first where would this diseases would have come from and they would have got it earlier
Lets say it comes from Ginue pigs as most of the worst plagues come from rodents and the reason they didnt get it earlier is because it only shows up in mesoamerican very sporadically due to how rare and sporadic Inca traders in Mesoamerica were. Cortez just happened to arrive in Tenochitlan right after a group of Inca traders left. It affects the aztecs and mesoamerican significantly less due to them having a degree of immunity due to dealing with a outbreak every couple decades since the ginnie pig was domesticated.


As a story, I like the idea-very poetic justice.

Epidemiologically speaking, it's not likely that Cortez and his men would contract the disease and then trudge all the way back to the Caribbean, and from there to Spain, without the disease manifesting itself first; the survivors would be unlikely to be contagious by the time they reach Spain. A think what would be more likely to happen is Cortez and his men die within a week of being in Tenochtitlan, just one of at that point several failed Spanish attempts to attack the mainland. The Spanish open up peaceful trade with the Mesoamericans, and just like the Portuguese in Africa stick to a few small trade outposts to avoid contracting lethal diseases. It would probably take a few decades of contact with the mainland-let's say about 25 years-before the disease hops to the Canaries or Azores, and from there to Eurasia. So around 1546-1550 timeframe.

When it does come, Americapox is going to be really, really bad in Europe. The reason is because we're in the full swing of the Reformation, so Europe is basically a tinderbox of potential Daesh-like religious violence. Once the disease sweeps in-if it's as deadly as smallpox, we can expect it to kill about a third of the population in the areas it spreads-it will fuel apocalyptic fervor and trigger massive religious war. In addition to the violence, war is likely to cause famine as crops are destroyed and spread native diseases like typhus, increasing the kill factor.
Lets say sheer luck allows enough of Cortezes men and Cortez himself to survive and spread it to Europe. After all epidemiological is just as much luck as it is precaution. You could spend everyday surrounded by small pox victims and never catch it or you could walk by one on the street one time and be dead in a week. Say cortez and men are extremely lucky and only a couple of them die before they reach Spain.

And.yes it does have a similar kill ratio as small pox and the black death so expect 25 to 30 percent die off anywhere it goes till immunity starts to devolope.
 

Chimera0205

Banned
Jared's TL Lands of Red and Gold, in which Australian Aboriginals end up developing agriculture using a yam that didn't exist ITTL in the Murray-Darling Basin, has an Australian plague called Marnitja which kills a bunch of people in Europe. It's not as bad as the 25% figure you're suggesting, but he does talk about it delaying technology by a few decades and it does alter European politics a lot by doing a number on the continent's royal families. It also affects the way in which events elsewhere, such as the collapse of the Ming dynasty, occur. Maybe the Spanish Habsburgs collapse sooner than in OTL seeing as the disease will kill members of their family but they'll still be hellbent on inbreeding to keep possessions within their family?
Can you link the aboriginal TL id really like to read that.
 
Well, it if hits in the 1522 time range, the Reformation was catching on but not dug in yet. IIRC Protestantism was initially most popular in urban areas which will also be the hardest hit, so the Protestant Reformation may be strangled in its cradle ITTL.

While germ theory of course did not exist, Europeans-or at least the Spanish and Portuguese-are going to have a pretty good idea that the plague came from the New World, and that it's not a healthy place to be. Assuming exploration still occurs, expect the Spanish to redirect their efforts looking for places with a more "healthful air" and avoiding Mesoamerica.

In Europe itself, its anyone's guess as to what happens as there is a degree of randomness to who catches the disease and who dies. Northern Italy and England both had practices of quarantine around this time that might blunt the disease, or at least slow down its passage. King Henry VIII dying from plague before having a male heir would certainly be very interesting as a butterfly effect.

I believe at this point smallpox had been introduced to Mesoamerica, so the Mesoamericans will go through a parallel plague and recovery period as Europe. The question is, will they be rapidly exposed to more diseases that could crater their recovery from Europe or not? While avoiding conquest and the violence and enslavement that came with it will help their recovery, repeated waves of disease after smallpox such as measles and influenza could crater their population, or at least keep it stagnant.
 
When it does come, Americapox is going to be really, really bad in Europe.
think it'll stay in Europe? Isn't it likely to spread across the Middle East and Far East as well? Between this and the plague in the New World, people are going to be a lot thinner on the ground over most of the world...
 
think it'll stay in Europe? Isn't it likely to spread across the Middle East and Far East as well? Between this and the plague in the New World, people are going to be a lot thinner on the ground over most of the world...

Oh yes, but the sectarian situation in Europe adds to the potential for disaster post-plague that will harm recovery. Contrast that to China, which had problems with famine in the latter half of the 16th century. ITTL, the aftermath of a large plague could actually see famine alleviated as there are fewer mouths to feed. Of course there are potentially negative butterflies for food security given that the introduction of maize, potatoes and sweet potatoes may be severely delayed ITTL.
 
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