WI: American Withdrawal from Philippines

WI Filipino rebels capture Manilla before the Americans or rebels successfully seize the city during the bombardment by the Asiatic fleet? Or if they set up a stable interim government in the major captured cities with US backing?

What factors would make the Schumann Commission recommend leaving the Philippines by itself and only acquire the naval port the US wanted in the Far East?

And what effects would this have to the future of the Philippines? Would the influence of the Catholic Church remain much stronger?
 
WI Filipino rebels capture Manilla before the Americans or rebels successfully seize the city during the bombardment by the Asiatic fleet? Or if they set up a stable interim government in the major captured cities with US backing?

What factors would make the Schumann Commission recommend leaving the Philippines by itself and only acquire the naval port the US wanted in the Far East?

And what effects would this have to the future of the Philippines? Would the influence of the Catholic Church remain much stronger?

They will withdraw if the Spanish sold the Spanish East Indies to another power, more likely, the Philippines will get partitioned to other powers like Germany, Britain and France.
 
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