WI: American Stephen Harper

Let's say that Harper doesn't become chief aide to Jim Hawke and continues working for Imperial Oil before moving to the States to work in an oil company there. That would probably place him in Texas.

This happens at about the same time that a repeal of the 22nd Amendment is passed towards the end of Reagan's second term. We'll say that initiative was part of a larger package of reforms to presidential eligibility requirements, including the requirement that candidates be born in the United States or to at least one US citizen.

We'll say that history goes on more or less as OTL from this point onwards, at least until Harper decides to run for elected office (if he does).

Does a Harper living in the United States decide to enter politics? Can he win elected office? Does he have a shot at the Presidency one day? If so, and he wins, how does he govern, and how different is America?

Without Harper on the Canadian scene, how do Canadian politics develop? Could somebody else have unified the Canadian right, or was Harper uniquely placed to do so and subsequently win a government?
 
I doubt an American Harper would get far in politics. Harper is just not a very personable guy— he's stiff, he's a private person, and he's never much liked campaigning— and it's hard to see someone with those qualities getting anywhere in the image-focused, campaign-heavy environment that is American politics. He's a policy wonk at heart, so I figure he'd he happiest in that capacity: a party official who rises to policy advisor or chief of staff, something along those lines.

On the Canadian side of things, Unite the Right definitely still happens, but it's an open question as to who becomes the first leader. Mike Harris seemed to be positioning himself as a contender— maybe he jumps in. Chuck Strahl and Jim Prentice also seem like likely candidates. It's hard to say much beyond that— this is a tumultuous time in Canadian politics and it could go any which way.
 
Some prominent Texas representative, if not a senator? He could be someone nationally, but not really a presidential figure unless the Republican nominee grabbed him as a vice presidential candidate. And if you make it so foreigners can become president, there's always Arnold Schwarzenegger to worry about in terms of rival Republicans.
 
I mean, "wonkish and vaguely stiff oilman" could describe GHWB, so it's not out of the question...

Let's say he becomes active in Texas Republican circles, and meets GWB before he runs for President. Bush likes him, he ends up Chief of Staff or maybe in the Energy Department, and rises toward the top. Somehow he becomes nationally known.
Butterflies mean Bush loses to, say, Howard Dean. Dean gets the 2006 midterms against him instead of Bush. Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for Governor like she was considering, and Harper wins the primary for her seat. Either way, he ends up in Congress.
Dean manages to scrape on in 2008 against a culture warrior like Huckabee. In 2012, the Republican Party turns to the polar opposite of Dean and Huckabee. Someone who seems more competent than inspiring. Someone who might have trouble getting elected, but who knows exactly what he would do in the office. Sure, he's technically a foreigner, but he's lived in Texas his entire adult life, and Canadians are basically Americans anyway. Against a nominee like, say, Andrew Cuomo, the choice is clear.
 
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