WI: American-Israel War, 1967

[lerk]

I have always been interested in a TL where America supports the Arabs while the USSR supports Israel, so here is an idea for that scenario:

Lehi kills Harry Truman in 1947, leading to George Marshall becoming president. Marshall IOTL was anti-Israel, didn't want to recognize and instead wanted to strengthen ties with the Arab states. While his presidency will be short (he was apolitical and was averse to running for political office) it will still leave a lasting legacy with regard to America's relationship with the Middle East.

Sometime in the 1950s the Lavon Affair is carried out, making the United States even more anti-Israel and the UK becoming distrustful. Only very intense negotiations prevent war.

Flash foward to 1967. Here the United States is not embroiled in Vietnam, or in any other country for that matter. During the Six Day War, the USS Liberty incident still happens. After this, the United States declares war on Israel.

What happens next?

 

[Winestu]

If the US is overtly hostile then I seriously doubt that Liberty incident even happens.

 

[lerk]

If the US is overtly hostile then I seriously doubt that Liberty incident even happens.

The Israelis claim that the Liberty incident happened is because they mistook the US flag for the Egyptian one. People have argued if they were telling the truth or not, but ITTL they actually tell the truth.

 

[Minchandre]

The Israelis claim that the Liberty incident happened is because they mistook the US flag for the Egyptian one. People have argued if they were telling the truth or not, but ITTL they actually tell the truth.

It would be butterflied away. Hell, so likely would the Lavon Affair if Marshall was president; it was such a weird crazy stunt that anything could have prevented it.

Anyway, your scenario needs to focus less on Israel and more on the Arab states. The US ended up supporting Israel as much by default as anything else, since by 1967 the Arab states had already cozied up to the USSR and Jordan's monarchy was in danger. If the US needs Israel for geopolitical reasons, it will overlook way worse things that a couple blown up tourist centers.

Have the US make more overtures to the new Arab republics in Egypt and Syria. Have the US back the Free Officers' Movement 110%, offering them training and equipment. Once Egypt is firmly American, a post-Stalin USSR will waste no time increasing cooperation with the socialists of the Israeli government.

 

[Rambam23]

How could Lehi assassinate Truman? I could imagine them doing it if Truman made unacceptable peace proposals and came to Palestine with the example of Folke Bernadotte, but why would Truman go to an unstable place like 1947 Palestine? Lehi didn’t have any international reach.

 

[lerk]

How could Lehi assassinate Truman? I could imagine them doing it if Truman made unacceptable peace proposals and came to Palestine with the example of Folke Bernadotte, but why would Truman go to an unstable place like 1947 Palestine? Lehi didn’t have any international reach.

They had plans to do so IOTL. Maybe an agent goes to the US and does it.

 

[David T]

"Everything else in the world is changed starting in 1947 but the exact timing and logistics of the Six Day War and the Liberty Incident two decades later are just as in OTL."

Sorry, doesn't look plausible to me.

 

[starman]

Once Egypt is firmly American, a post-Stalin USSR will waste no time increasing cooperation with the socialists of the Israeli government.

I think the Soviets would've been reluctant to side with Israel. Even after its smashing victory in '67, Kosygin said to Johnson "I don't understand you Americans backing Israel. There are 50 million arabs and only two million jews." Maybe the Soviets would've tried to keep Syria and Iraq as clients, if the US armed Egypt. IMO Israel would've been in big trouble if even the US was hostile.

 

[Father Maryland]

How would US-British/French relations be in this world? Wouldn't heavily supporting forces within the Arab world dedicated to overthrowing British/French backed regimes and nationalizing European owned assets like the Suez Canal really damage American relations with Europe? As it is the US forcing the Brits/French/Israelis to back down over the Suez severely damaged relations at a time when the security of Western Europe from Soviet agitation was considered paramount.

 

[starman]

How would US-British/French relations be in this world? Wouldn't heavily supporting forces within the Arab world dedicated to overthrowing British/French backed regimes and nationalizing European owned assets like the Suez Canal really damage American relations with Europe?

Not very much, or for very long. Decolonization was already underway and the US could say it's vital to preempt Soviet influence in a vital part of the world.

As it is the US forcing the Brits/French/Israelis to back down over the Suez severely damaged relations at a time when the security of Western Europe from Soviet agitation was considered paramount.

I don't think there was significant or lasting damage. Forcing the invaders of Egypt to pull out may have seemed like a mistake at the time but I think it ultimately paid off when Egypt turned away from the USSR and toward the US in the '70s. You could say it helped pave the way for improved relations.