WI American East Indies, No Alaska

A thought. The American consul to Brunei purchased a 10 year lease to North Borneo. Now, in real life, this did not last due to the pressures of the civil war, which had just ended. There wasn't a lot of interest in the US for Far Eastern colonies as well.

I'm just curious if anything could have come of this.

Now, this is just a thought, but would there be anyway to make the US seriously consider Far Eastern colonies, especially in lieu of purchasing Alaska? I imagine such a change would require a shorter, quicker civil war, or a complete absence of it in its entirety. I'm not sure how best to create such a change in temperament.

As far as I can tell, the sequence of events would go like this.

1. Acquire California and the Southwest
2. Begin settlement of the areas and continue to develop west.
3. Have interests gained in East Indies, either through leases purchases or other private enterprises
4. Settle Civil War earlier. Earlier conclusion, or perhaps avert it, at the time, with a foreign war
5. Acquire a substantial territory in the East Indies. (Sabah wouldn't be enough, I imagine. Possibly the entire Philippines and Spanish East Indies? Another idea below)
6. That would leave the possessions separated by the pacific, which would practically require the acquisition of Hawai'i. Earlier annexation there.

Anywho, there are quite a few problems there. Even if the POD is in the 1840's, there wouldn't be much time to avert the biggest obstacle to such an expansion. It's the reason I think a foreign war would need to break out before or during the beginning stages of the civil war.

An earlier Spanish-American war might be the most obvious launching point, as it would result in the same spoils as in OTL, assuming that the US can beat Spain at such an early point. (Since they don't have the forces built up, would they be able to without months of time building up an actual fleet?) Such a conflict might be difficult to pull off. Then again, one poor incident with a pig nearly set off a war between the US and Britain.

I had the thought of, perhaps, a Dutch-American war breaking out. The only situation that I can think of is, perhaps, that the Dutch may try to enter the Caribbean and force the payment of loans that had been past due (such as Santo Domingo? I can't recall who their creditors were). The only way that they would feel safe doing so would be when the US would be distracted - such as during the beginning stages of the Civil War.

As such, would it be possible to tie such a scenario together? The Dutch launch a quick war against said nation to recoup their losses and perhaps set up a government friendly to them while the USA and CSA fight. Things go poorly for the CSA from the start, and the war is wrapped up within the first year or two, before an Emancipation Proclamation is made and the war becomes about something more than Unionism. (the writing is on the wall, but if the war was proceeding so smoothly, Lincoln would not make such a decree to save the union)

At that point, the Dutch would still be warring in the Caribbean, and Lincoln could possibly take advantage of this to unite his nation against a common foe and invoke the Monroe Doctrine?

The European nations wouldn't be happy, but would they intervene if the Dutch have continuously prosecuted this war and been unable to finish it? Would they instead wait for a few battles to proceed before asking for a summit to end the hostilities? I don't think the US would want to agree to this. Would they want to join in the European Congress system, or just deal directly with the Dutch?

In the process, I imagine that the US might take the Dutch possessions in the Caribbean, ensure protection of Santo Domingo, (not annexation) and enact a few concessions from their east indies colonies. Perhaps they could take the Mollucas and Western New Guinea, and perhaps Sulawesi? Might be interesting if they later on take Sabah through some acquisition, and stumble across the Philippines later. At that point though, there are too many changes to tract without going into great detail.

Later on, the colonies may or may not become part of the US. Indonesia as we know it would not form. There may be a few various nations occupying the island chain. It's not quite a fair trade, as Alaska is closer, has a smaller native population, and wouldn't bother many of the great powers as an East India focus most assuredly would. That, and Russian Alaska would be an interesting dynamic, if they could keep it in the end. (Might an independent nation be setup in Alaska/Siberia if the revolution goes through, in some manner?)


In the end, is such a thought even plausible: A limited presence in the Caribbean (acting more through proxies), no presence in Alaska, and a stronger presence in the Pacific?
 

CalBear

Moderator
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Monthly Donor
Alaska was acquired to keep it out of the hands of a European Power. Any additions in the Caribbean or even a lease in Borneo wouldn't change that.

If anything a recent open war with a European colonial power would make the purchase even more certain.
 
Alaska was acquired to keep it out of the hands of a European Power. Any additions in the Caribbean or even a lease in Borneo wouldn't change that.

If anything a recent open war with a European colonial power would make the purchase even more certain.

True, I know. I was just trying to avoid too large of a gain. Given how cheap Alaska was, though, I don't see how they could avoid it, in all honesty. It was just a thought.

What about the central part of the theme? Would there be any plausible chance of going to the East Indies, anymore than OTL?
 

Driftless

Donor
US Navy - Borneo & the Philippines

Would a US Borneo colony lead to a change in the make up of the US Asiatic Squadron?

The decade or so after the Civil War was not real kind to the OTL US Navy. Many of the ships were left to deteriorate following the war. The Virginius Incident showed how neutered the Navy was. That event started a relatively slow upgrade and modernization of the Navy, where the make-over was just hitting it's stride at the onset of the OTL Spanish American War. How would you see the US protecting it's colony on the far side of the world in 1870-1880 say? Would they tend to see a rotation of the better ships, or would it be the dumping ground for older ships? Since the colony was so far from other US bases, would they have purpose-built longer-legged ships?

If in this timeline, the Navy modernization followed the OTL plan, the US would have a selection of some comparatively modern ships in Asia by the late 1890's - USS Olympia, USS Raliegh, maybe others? Plus their own home base, unlike Dewey's situation before OTL Manila Bay, where he had serious concerns about limited ammunition and coal, with little hope of resupply.

Would a US Borneo colony lead to a change in the make up of the Spanish Philippine fleet?
 
Ahhh, I see. That was interesting. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

Most assuredly. It was a reason I would lower Caribbean involvement in return, which is why, at most, they would be limited to a few islands in the Caribbean at first. Even if (most likely when, but for the sake of things) there is a war with Spain, would the US have preferred to keep Puerto Rico if they already have islands, or separate the Virgin Islands from the mainland, similar to Guantanamo?

(And I read that as Atlantic Squadron. Let me rephrase)

It depends on when a timeline would take place. I would see affairs in that world only occur if the Civil War is averted (very unlikely) or if it is shortened and damage isn't as lasting (not as unlikely)

Protection for colonies would be the biggest problem. Even after such a war, the Navy would decommission allow its ships to fall by the wayside. North Borneo would not really be worth much trouble on its own. With it surrounded by Dutch, British, and Spanish possessions, its position is untenable. You might have a few older ships sent out to try and protect from piracy, but other than that, the US would still be isolationist. The colony might be sold to an American company, and it might do better than it did in OTL, but otherwise it would probably fail.

It's the reason I suggested a war with an outside European power. The US can't be as isolationist at that same point in OTL. I imagine that a savvy president would take such an opportunity to unite his recently divided country, and prompt them with a quaint reminder of the costs of warring amongst their selves. After all, while we were busy, Europeans tried to sneak in and impose their wills on New World nations. It would be best for the country to stand strong and united, and to maintain a presence that would be able to respond to such incursions.

Would Lincoln surviving and the Radical Republicans never having their way with Reconstruction (if there even is much of one after such a short war) be able to provide the impetus for such a thing?

In that (perhaps fanciful) situation, the US navy would not deteriorate as much between 1863 and 1898. And, if the US gains another colony (I think Sulawesi might be the best one in this situation. Them and the Moluccas, along with North Borneo) they would certainly make a point of investing more in a navy.

Back to composition. The Asiatic fleet would indeed be composed of the older vessels. The Atlantic fleet would certainly be the newest. The former, however, would most likely be the second strongest fleet, and the one that would compose purely of ships designed to project power. You might see a proliferation of monitors in the home fleets, simply to free up seaworthy ships for the far east. After all, the US has to compete with many nations in Southeast Asia. Not so much on the Pacific Coast.

You would see a few cruisers as the flagships, in the end. Raleigh, Olympia, et al. Depending on the size of the colonies, you could even see a battleship and its requisite fleet being posted there on occasion. Again, it'd be the older ships, but they'd all be seaworthy.

Of course, there are problems with that. Getting ships to the Far East is a long enough trip as it is. Maintaining supplies will be another for the first decade or two.

The Spanish would be very concerned by an American presence near all of their overseas territory, and would try to increase it. Then again, they'd have to split their forces between the Caribbean and the Philippines. After all, the Americans aren't just eying Cuba anymore.

(For that matter, wouldn't the Asiatic Squadron still remain the East Indies Squadron?)
 
Bumpity

Anywho, pulled a map out to draw a bit and give a rough idea.

Bright Blue is Brunei North Borneo
Medium Blue is a middle ground for any Dutch war gains
Pale Blue would be Spanish war gains (assuming no butterflies, mind)

Depending how the conduct of the initial war would go, it could be less (no Dutch Borneo, fewer Mollucas in the south) or more (West Papua New Guinea, more of Borneo) The Population of Indonesia, based on what I've been able to see, has grown nearly by an order of ten since 1870. I couldn't see more than that, but, again, this would drastically alter the timeline. The Spanish might even get rid of one of the Philippines and sell them to a willing party just so they can concentrate their defenses and try to hold Cuba.

Of course, such a large amount of territory near British colonies and Japan might drive the two nations together and keep their alliance (or, more accurately, establish it earlier?) It might be interesting to see what would happen in response to that.

Outline_Map_of_Southeast_Asia_US_Ownership.png
 
I am still not sure how an American-Dutch war could happen, since the Dutch would never be so stupid as to attack the Americans (especialy considering the Netherlands was famously neutral during the 19th and early 20th century) and I doubt the USA would care enough about the Netherlands or the Dutch East Indies to attack them, especialy considering it probably would be disasterous for its reputation, since the Netherlands was a relatively well liked country.
 
I am still not sure how an American-Dutch war could happen, since the Dutch would never be so stupid as to attack the Americans (especialy considering the Netherlands was famously neutral during the 19th and early 20th century) and I doubt the USA would care enough about the Netherlands or the Dutch East Indies to attack them, especialy considering it probably would be disasterous for its reputation, since the Netherlands was a relatively well liked country.

Quite. I'm not sure about how it could come about, but it's the only route I could foresee going to the East. Spain's navy is too good (and the US navy too bad) to keep them from going toe to toe until late in the 19th century.

You'd need a breach of Monroe Doctrine for such a thing to happen. The only way I could see that happening is that, while the Americans are distracted (such as the Civil War), they do a quick raid into a Central American/Caribbean country that is indebted to the Dutch in order to recoup payments. The Dutch intervention drags on for some reason, and the Civil War ends sooner, and the US decides to act and invoke the Doctrine to give Americans a rallying cry.

Basically, it would be a parallel to the (Second) French Intervention in Mexico.

Then again, I doubt the Dutch would do such a thing unless it was a truly ludicrous sum. So, any sort of POD would have to be earlier. Perhaps even the Congress of Vienna, with the Netherlands retaining Belgium longer? The country would still be unstable, as I doubt they would end many of the problems plaguing the union, and they would focus on external conflicts.
 
Quite. I'm not sure about how it could come about, but it's the only route I could foresee going to the East. Spain's navy is too good (and the US navy too bad) to keep them from going toe to toe until late in the 19th century.

You'd need a breach of Monroe Doctrine for such a thing to happen. The only way I could see that happening is that, while the Americans are distracted (such as the Civil War), they do a quick raid into a Central American/Caribbean country that is indebted to the Dutch in order to recoup payments. The Dutch intervention drags on for some reason, and the Civil War ends sooner, and the US decides to act and invoke the Doctrine to give Americans a rallying cry.

Basically, it would be a parallel to the (Second) French Intervention in Mexico.

Then again, I doubt the Dutch would do such a thing unless it was a truly ludicrous sum. So, any sort of POD would have to be earlier. Perhaps even the Congress of Vienna, with the Netherlands retaining Belgium longer? The country would still be unstable, as I doubt they would end many of the problems plaguing the union, and they would focus on external conflicts.
One thing to realise is that 19th century Netherlands wouldn't be able to do such things. Like I always say, the Netherlands in the 19th century was a poor and backwards nation, that would not be able to do such a thing as the French did in Mexico (or on a smaller scale). Colonialwise they basicly solely focussed on Indonesia (they sold their African, Indian and Malaysian colonies to Britain). I doubt they would or could do something that would invoke the Monroe doctrine.

Personaly I would say that you need some American imperialism; kind of like the Spanish-American war: they invented a reason to go to war with a country to conquer some islands. Still in that case, the USA would focus on the Dutch American colonies.
 
One thing to realise is that 19th century Netherlands wouldn't be able to do such things. Like I always say, the Netherlands in the 19th century was a poor and backwards nation, that would not be able to do such a thing as the French did in Mexico (or on a smaller scale). Colonialwise they basicly solely focussed on Indonesia (they sold their African, Indian and Malaysian colonies to Britain). I doubt they would or could do something that would invoke the Monroe doctrine.

Personaly I would say that you need some American imperialism; kind of like the Spanish-American war: they invented a reason to go to war with a country to conquer some islands. Still in that case, the USA would focus on the Dutch American colonies.

I see. Well, that would make sense. I was thinking Santo Domingo, but I don't doubt what you're saying. It comes down to, in the end, needing a casus belli that the Dutch won't provide in most logical circumstances.

And I definitely agree there. Dutch Caribbean and Suriname would be more immediate targets than Indonesia. They'd want to kick them out. The picture I drew was of the best case scenario. Really, at most they might get some of the Mollucas, perhaps one good port to be an alt-Manilla.

Hrm. Perhaps the best case would be a healthier US, going through a faster Civil War, stays together, gets that strip of North Borneo, and goes through an earlier Spanish-American war. To buttress their claims after the war, might they try and purchase Northern Borneo? (Claims by Sulu, of which the island now belongs to the US) Or would such an arrangement be made after the initial success by a US Borneo colony, after which they might try to just purchase a port in Indonesia, perhaps in North Sulawesi and Halmehera/the surrounding archipeligo just to solidify the claims.
 
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