WI: American Civil War With Independent Texas

What if the US Congress rejects the Texan bid for statehood and Texas remains independent. Obviously the American Civil War or Mexican American War does not occur original timeline. However, Mexican incursions into Texas probably don’t stop, perhaps another Texas vs. Mexican conflict breaks out with the US supporting Texas and still ending up with more of the West. Slavery continues to be a thorn in the side of the Union. How then does having an independent, Anglo, slaveholding state in North America that is sympathetic to the cause of the South change things?
 
A Texas that's been independent for 25 years will be under heavy pressure from the UK to end slavery.

If Texas is smart they'll just happily sell everything they can to whomever has the most cash in hand. But, there's a good chance they declare with the southerners on the USA and get struck down hard for it.
 
If the US attacked Texas for standing with the Southerners, I don't see Europe taking that action too kindly.
 
Would the American Civil War even happen without Texas? Most historians attribute the political climate that lead to the Civil War as a direct result of the Mexican American War, which was a result of Texas' annexation.
 
Would the American Civil War even happen without Texas? Most historians attribute the political climate that lead to the Civil War as a direct result of the Mexican American War, which was a result of Texas' annexation.

The OP implies that Texas isn't annexed, but much of the west still goes to America. The south would likely still feel hemmed in in this scenario (perhaps moreso because Texas blocks the way west).

The intervening years are critical in this scenario to see how the war breaks out. The year the war starts and the order of secession all will have huge impacts on the war.
 
If the South feels more pressure earlier on, maybe an earlier Civil War occurs in the 1850's. Maybe Kansas goes slave as a compromise.
 
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The OP implies that Texas isn't annexed, but much of the west still goes to America. The south would likely still feel hemmed in in this scenario (perhaps moreso because Texas blocks the way west).

The intervening years are critical in this scenario to see how the war breaks out. The year the war starts and the order of secession all will have huge impacts on the war.

But the Texas Annexation was the pretext for the Mexican American War. Without the Annexation, there is no war, and the West either remains Mexican, or falls into British hands (as they had eyes on California as well).
 
If the US attacked Texas for standing with the Southerners, I don't see Europe taking that action too kindly.

I agree with your statement, but an Independent Texas should be neutral in an American Civil War and not stand with the Southerners. Not to mention they would likely have the U.S. as a top trading partner and shouldn't mess with that.
 
If the European nations won't tolerate a Union invasion of Texas, they also would object to any blockades or privateering. Texas would be the Confederacy's lifeline. Just another reason Texas would likely remain neutral in the Civil War.
 
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