WI America Strikes First?

[SpicyJuan]

"In a statement to the Congressional Committee on Pearl Harbor in 1946, Secretary [of War] Stimson described in stronger terms this conversation with President Roosevelt. He then said that he had told the President on November 28, 1941, that

'the desirable thing to do from the point of view of our own tactics and safety was to take the initiative and attack [the Japanese forces moving southward] without further warning. It is axiomatic that the best defense is offense. It is always dangerous to wait and let the enemy make the first move. I was inclined to feel that the warning given in August by the President against further moves by the Japanese toward Thailand justified an attack without further warning, particularly as their new movement southward indicated that they were about to violate that warning. On the other hand, I realized that the situation could be made more clean cut from the point of view of public opinion if a further warning were given.'
From President Roosevelt and the Coming of the Great War by Charles A Beard pg 526


What if Stimson swayed Roosevelt, embroiling the United States into a war without Japan, a war where the United States fired the first shots? What would this Pacific look like? Would Japan, now not facing the ire of the American population, have a chance at drawing out the war and gaining a favorable peace?

 

[Dolan]

Basically Yes, America would be then seen as the aggressor here, and do not underestimate the effect on American servicemen's morale.

Anti-war factions will end up swaying a considerable, or even majority of American population opinions, and while Japan can't really do anything on Pacific front against US directly... This will cause Roosevelt to be seen as warmonger and thus the lend lease to British and USSR will start to be questioned and later cease.

It would be an almost perfect propaganda victory for the Axis, and I'm sure Goebbels will milk it of all its worth.

It could end up with stalemate at Pacific front and total disaster on European front, if Roosevelt end up impeached, or at least seen as bloodthirsty dictator if heavy handed measures started to be uzed against protesting US population.

The most interesting scenario however, is indeed the worst result, from our point of view. The Anti war sentiment grew, Roosevelt get impeached and botching his hearing in front of the congresss. Lindbergh elected as President, make peace with Japan (and giving them some renumerations for earlier aggression under previous president), lend lease to Britain and USSR stopped dead, and overtures being made to Nazi Germany looking for White Peace.

Britain end up bailing out of the war after American debacle, Germany accept White peace in the West with Vichy French being secured. At least, they could leverage the Germans to left Norway and Denmark, with Hitler end up agreeing as long as the Scandinavian Nazis are kept in power.

Japan end up attacking Soviet Union because they could no longer fighting Americans and the new Americans promised them bonus points if they attacked those Godless Commies.

Seeing USSR stand alone against Axis, Sweden end up joining Axis and working together with Finland to invade USSR from the North in coordination with German movements from the South. Unofficially however, they actually feared what could happened if Germany end up really gobbling up USSR and actually race to conquer Moscow first.

Against all odds, the Nordic states succeed while Germany end up bogged down in the South. Sweden (with not so secret backing of US and Britain) end up reinstalling the Tsar with democratic constitution. Stalin is captured, tried in Stockholm, and quickly executed.

Everyone else told Nazis that if they attack the new White Russian monarchy, this will cause everyone to start piling on them. Hitler did not get the memo, trying to renege upon it, but feels betrayed when basically everyone, Italy and Japan included, end up attacking German Nazis after they tried to press their luck too far.

It end up with swift coup thanks to Klaus Von Stauffenberg, Rommel, and Manstein, who got tired of Hitler's stupidity, and Nazi leaderships end up captured and tried.

Kaiser Willhelm III is the new German monarch but they end up with rather democratic constitution.

And that's how this campaign of HOI IV ended, the world is at peace once again.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Attack where with what? The number of assets the US had to do shit was rather limited you only had the FEAF and the Asiatic fleet in any real position to do shit and the amount of damage they could cause would be rather limited the armed forces would likely tell FDR that they aren't in a position to conduct offensive action and the plan would be postponed to a later date and in 9 days PH gets hit so...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Attack where with what?
...

As a former under secretary of the Navy in the 1920s, when War Plan ORANGE was worked out, and commander in Chief of the Navy since 1933 Roosevelt understood very clearly the limits of what the USN might accomplish. The Two Ocean Navy Act and the War Acts of 1940 disrupted the Navys strike capability by the massive training and rearmament program. Just placing the fleet on a defensive stance in Oahu was considered by the fleet commander Richardson a imprudent move. While WPO contemplated raids Roosevelt understood any strike of strategic scale was impractical in latter 1939.

 

[SsgtC]

As a former under secretary of the Navy in the 1920s, when War Plan ORANGE was worked out, and commander in Chief of the Navy since 1933 Roosevelt understood very clearly the limits of what the USN might accomplish. The Two Ocean Navy Act and the War Acts of 1940 disrupted the Navys strike capability by the massive training and rearmament program. Just placing the fleet on a defensive stance in Oahu was considered by the fleet commander Richardson a imprudent move. While WPO contemplated raids Roosevelt understood any strike of strategic scale was impractical in latter 1939.

Richardson was against the move to Pearl Harbor because, at the time, Pearl was not fully developed as a major naval base. Everything would have to be shifted forward and that was a major logistical nightmare. Secondly, he felt that that basing the fleet at Pearl would accomplish nothing that basing the fleet at San Diego wouldn't. Third, he could read a map. He knew that Pearl was just within range of the IJN. He believed that moving the fleet to Pearl was an unnecessary risk. And finally, he felt the move would be seen as offensive rather than defensive. Forward basing the fleet at Pearl Harbor could be seen as the USN moving into position to launch their own offensive rather than as a move to defend the West Coast.

 

[lionhead]

Gotta remember that the Japanese fleet left port on November 26th to attack Pearl. And they had been planning it for months. What can the US do before that? Who'd attack the world's biggest fleet?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Who'd attack the world's biggest fleet?

Second biggest. & The USN had several times tested attacks on Oahu. Admiral Kimmel was very aware of those. The USN commanders expected attacks. It was the size that surprised them. A fleet of carriers making a combined strike with over 150 bombers, that was a suprise.

 

[lionhead]

Second biggest. & The USN had several times tested attacks on Oahu. Admiral Kimmel was very aware of those. The USN commanders expected attacks. It was the size that surprised them. A fleet of carriers making a combined strike with over 150 bombers, that was a suprise.

well, technically third biggest, but no. 1 most powerful.

 

[e of pi]

well, technically third biggest, but no. 1 most powerful.

The US fleet wasn't "#1 most powerful" in 1941, not even on December 6. The building programs that would give it that status were underway, but two years or so from hitting the water.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

well, technically third biggest, but no. 1 most powerful.

Not so sure about that either. The large influx of reservists and recruits after the initial 1940 mobilization left the Navy playing catch up in training. Items like defective torpedos, no fast battleships operational, fewer big deck carriers, don't look good either. For a brief time the IJN had a more battle worthy fleet.

 

[lionhead]

Not so sure about that either. The large influx of reservists and recruits after the initial 1940 mobilization left the Navy playing catch up in training. Items like defective torpedos, no fast battleships operational, fewer big deck carriers, don't look good either. For a brief time the IJN had a more battle worthy fleet.

I was talking about the Japanese navy.

 

[Nephi]

Basically Yes, America would be then seen as the aggressor here, and do not underestimate the effect on American servicemen's morale.

Anti-war factions will end up swaying a considerable, or even majority of American population opinions, and while Japan can't really do anything on Pacific front against US directly... This will cause Roosevelt to be seen as warmonger and thus the lend lease to British and USSR will start to be questioned and later cease.

It would be an almost perfect propaganda victory for the Axis, and I'm sure Goebbels will milk it of all its worth.

It could end up with stalemate at Pacific front and total disaster on European front, if Roosevelt end up impeached, or at least seen as bloodthirsty dictator if heavy handed measures started to be uzed against protesting US population.

The most interesting scenario however, is indeed the worst result, from our point of view. The Anti war sentiment grew, Roosevelt get impeached and botching his hearing in front of the congresss. Lindbergh elected as President, make peace with Japan (and giving them some renumerations for earlier aggression under previous president), lend lease to Britain and USSR stopped dead, and overtures being made to Nazi Germany looking for White Peace.

Britain end up bailing out of the war after American debacle, Germany accept White peace in the West with Vichy French being secured. At least, they could leverage the Germans to left Norway and Denmark, with Hitler end up agreeing as long as the Scandinavian Nazis are kept in power.

Japan end up attacking Soviet Union because they could no longer fighting Americans and the new Americans promised them bonus points if they attacked those Godless Commies.

Seeing USSR stand alone against Axis, Sweden end up joining Axis and working together with Finland to invade USSR from the North in coordination with German movements from the South. Unofficially however, they actually feared what could happened if Germany end up really gobbling up USSR and actually race to conquer Moscow first.

Against all odds, the Nordic states succeed while Germany end up bogged down in the South. Sweden (with not so secret backing of US and Britain) end up reinstalling the Tsar with democratic constitution. Stalin is captured, tried in Stockholm, and quickly executed.

Everyone else told Nazis that if they attack the new White Russian monarchy, this will cause everyone to start piling on them. Hitler did not get the memo, trying to renege upon it, but feels betrayed when basically everyone, Italy and Japan included, end up attacking German Nazis after they tried to press their luck too far.

It end up with swift coup thanks to Klaus Von Stauffenberg, Rommel, and Manstein, who got tired of Hitler's stupidity, and Nazi leaderships end up captured and tried.

Kaiser Willhelm III is the new German monarch but they end up with rather democratic constitution.

And that's how this campaign of HOI IV ended, the world is at peace once again.

What I don't, but I do kinda like that world you set up.

 

[Dolan]

What I don't, but I do kinda like that world you set up.

Well, this is HOI 4, not totally realistic, but possible

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Well, this is HOI 4, not totally realistic, but possible

No, it's a video game. Trying to claim that just because it was achieved in a video game it is possible is idiotic.

 

[CalBear]

Actually the U.S. DID technically fire the first shot. The Ward sank the Japanese mini-sub trying to sneak into the harbor several hours before the strike on Oahu. The IJN sub was violation of recognized International Law at the time (both in 1941 AND today), submarines can not cross into the territorial waters of another country while submerged without express permission of the country whose waters they are passing, so the Ward was in the clear as far as attacking her (especially since the IJN boat was in a declared exclusion zone), but there is no doubt that the U.S. shot first.

 

[SpicyJuan]

Actually the U.S. DID technically fire the first shot. The Ward sank the Japanese mini-sub trying to sneak into the harbor several hours before the strike on Oahu. The IJN sub was violation of recognized International Law at the time (both in 1941 AND today), submarines can not cross into the territorial waters of another country while submerged without express permission of the country whose waters they are passing, so the Ward was in the clear as far as attacking her (especially since the IJN boat was in a declared exclusion zone), but there is no doubt that the U.S. shot first.

In case I wasn't clear with the OP, I was not referring to legalistic quibble of a sunken submarine, rather a very clear and large American strike on Japanese warships in Asia.

 

[NORGCO]

Not so sure about that either. The large influx of reservists and recruits after the initial 1940 mobilization left the Navy playing catch up in training. Items like defective torpedos, no fast battleships operational, fewer big deck carriers, don't look good either. For a brief time the IJN had a more battle worthy fleet.

Wasn't the whole point of the IJN attacking WHEN they did that they had a brief window of opportunity? That if they waited till Summer 1942 for example the Phillipino forces would be trained soldiers and Wake's defences would be completed and a variety of other things? The explanation I have seen it that when war broke out most Phillipino artillerymen had not SEEN an artilery piece fired, much less done it themselves, the radiomen could not keep contact within their own headquarters area etc.

This was all fixable with time. You fix a recruits lack of training and experience by giving him training and experience. It needed time, as did so many other things. American forces in the Pacific just needed time.

But in December 1941 Japan had everything ready. It was go now or face a much stronger enemy later, given that they were not going to pull out of China as demanded.

 

[Art]

Regarding Roosevelt, and the whole story of him letting Pearl Harbor happen to get the United States in the war, I see stories like that as either fiction or wishful thinking. There is a true story I read in a history book called Eyewitnesses of WW2. Regarding a armed yacht named the Lanikai that was fitted out at Cavite Navy Yard and sent on patrol in the South China Sea. Regarding Wake Island, if the Japanese had waited even a month later to declare war then there was a transport with about 300 more marines, tons more ammunition for everything from the 5-inch cannon down to small arms and radar sets.