WI: America only got Mindanao?

Alright, it's apparently Philippines night so bear with us.

"The negotiators then turned to the question of the Philippines. Spanish negotiators were determined to hang onto all they could, hoping to cede only Mindanao and perhaps the Sulu Islands. On the American side, Chairman Day had once recommended the acquisition of only naval base in Manila as a 'hitching post'. Others had recommended retaining just the island of Luzon. In discussions with its advisers, though, the commission concluded that Spain, if it retained part of the Philippines, would be likely to sell that part to another European power and that this would likely be troublesome for America. On November 25, the American Commission cabled President McKinley for explicit instructions."

What if McKinley gave up on insisting that the whole archipelago be ceded to the USA and ended up accepting what Spain put on the table? How would this affect the history of both nations? Taft for one probably won't be relegated here as Governor-General.
 
Alright, it's apparently Philippines night so bear with us.

"The negotiators then turned to the question of the Philippines. Spanish negotiators were determined to hang onto all they could, hoping to cede only Mindanao and perhaps the Sulu Islands. On the American side, Chairman Day had once recommended the acquisition of only naval base in Manila as a 'hitching post'. Others had recommended retaining just the island of Luzon. In discussions with its advisers, though, the commission concluded that Spain, if it retained part of the Philippines, would be likely to sell that part to another European power and that this would likely be troublesome for America. On November 25, the American Commission cabled President McKinley for explicit instructions."

What if McKinley gave up on insisting that the whole archipelago be ceded to the USA and ended up accepting what Spain put on the table? How would this affect the history of both nations? Taft for one probably won't be relegated here as Governor-General.

By Nov 25, 1898 the de facto control of Spanish East Indies are
Spain - Caroline islands,Palau
USA - Manila, Guam
the rest of the Philippines under the rebels.

Assuming that US takes the offer, buys Sulu, Mindanao, Guam, Palau, Caroline/Maraianas islands. The offer in OTL Germany was 17M marks or around $4M in the German Spanish Treaty. US Pays another $6M for Sulu/Mindanao.

Spain still has to retake Luzon and Visayas. Spain sends what was suppose to be Cámara's Flying Relief Column. Blockades Visayas, takes each Visayan island with no hope of reinforcements from the rebels in Luzon.

Now you get to the interesting part, New Castille(Luzon). By that time, the rebels would have setup up shore defenses, trenches and heavily mined ports, beaches where the Spanish may land, Manila Bay, Subic Bay, Lingayen gulf, etc.

OTL USA needed around 100k soldiers to win the war, with a starting point at San Juan del Monte bridge, meaning directly land war and surprise attack. You can compute the cost both in money and lives in how much the Spanish need to take the rebel held island starting from an amphibious assault with an opponent expecting Spain's attack.

While this is happening, US is in a 10 years(based on OTL years) pacification of the Moros in Mindanao.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Of course, if the US isn't engaged elsewhere in the islands,

While this is happening, US is in a 10 years(based on OTL years) pacification of the Moros in Mindanao.

Of course, if the US isn't engaged elsewhere in the islands, the ratio of occupiers to occupied on Mindanao is presumably significantly higher than historically...

Best,
 
Of course, if the US isn't engaged elsewhere in the islands, the ratio of occupiers to occupied on Mindanao is presumably significantly higher than historically...

Best,

I already computed that. 1899-1913 in OTL. War in Luzon finished in 1902. In ATL, this could be 1899-1909. There is not really much to speed up in Mindanao when you dont have roads,trains and the Moros hiding in the mountains and jungle.
 

Driftless

Donor
When did American companies (specifically Dole) get interested and active in the Philippines and especially Mindanao? I'm guessing after 1898.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Just let them continue to hide, presumably?

I already computed that. 1899-1913 in OTL. War in Luzon finished in 1902. In ATL, this could be 1899-1909. There is not really much to speed up in Mindanao when you dont have roads,trains and the Moros hiding in the mountains and jungle.

Just let them continue to hide, presumably?

Build up the coastal enclaves and stand back; control of the seas - and the Mindanao River - would allow something less than marching upcountry, one would think...

Best,
 
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