US and Japan probably still end up at war, just a bit later than OTL
You see just because the US and co. are willing to sell to Japan, does not mean that Japan has the money to buy. Japan can't end the war in China for its own reasons, so it has to attack the European colonies to get the resources it needs once the foreign exchange runs out. Given that the US has not embargoed, or even condemned it, one could say, well why is Japan attacking the US, if the US is pretty much the most pro Japanese country in the world. Well, glad you asked, because the US is already allied with these countries and fighting a war with them. Huh?
All this talk about Japan and one has forgotten the Elephant in the Room, Germany. Three US warships have been attacked by German U-Boats by Oct. 1941, 1 sunk, plus the BB Texas was nearly torpedoed. US approved Lend-Lease in March, extended it to USSR in June. US occupied Iceland in June 1941, US had bombarded German land facilities in Sep. 1941 and issued the "Shoot on Sight" order that month. In short US entry into the European theater was coming soon, and I think by December '41, something like 75% of the US population was willing to go to war with Germany, and FDR was doing everything in his power to poke Hitler. In this case US war with Germany by Summer '42 is very probable and by the start of '43 almost certain
So by the time Japan runs out of cash to buy raw materials, the US is in the war and allied with UK and co., if US entry to the war doesn't choke off that flow anyways as the US needs them too and can pay more. So Japan still has to make the same calculation as OTL, and likely still gets the same results, except the correlation of forces is worse than OTL