WI America and Japan had went to war 1900?

I was once told in my American History class that America and Japan nearly went to war 40 years earlier around the 1900s, when Anti-Japanese sentiment was at an all time high. What if this had escalated? What If America and Japan had fought a war in 1900? how would it end?
 
I don't know that it ends very well for Japan. At the time, the United States has 5 sea-going battleships in commission (Iowa, Kearsarge, Kentucky, Alabama. Illinois), plus the three Iowa class coastal battleships already in commission. They have the Wisconsin commissioning in 1901 and the three Maine-class battleships launching in 1901 and likely able to commission by 1902 in wartime conditions. There's also a number of relatively heavy protected cruisers like Olympia and New York that fought the Philippines battles of the Spanish American War just two years prior--a navy of trained professionals just a year or two off their latest major war, who have had time to absorb the lessons of it without forgetting them.

By contrast, the Imperial Japanese Navy has just 4 battleships (Fuji, Yashima, Asashi. Shikishima) with Hatsuse completed and due for delivery from the UK in early 1901. The last is important to note: Japan was for the most part unable to build their own capital ships at this time, they were buying them from the UK. Any ships added to the fleet after the war, like Hatsuse, would need to run the gauntlet to the Med and then through Suez to reach home waters, risking interception along the way (and that even assuming the US doesn't apply pressure to avoid the ships being delivered--perhaps, in the ultimate irony, purchasing them instead by outbidding Japan).

At the start of the war, the US is fighting an active and somewhat brutal campaign to subjugate the Philippines, which the Japanese may be able to intervene in if they can drive off the US Asiatic Squadron. The Japanese required US financial support to fight the Russo-Japanese War--obviously, not likely to come their way if they're fighting the US itself. They may be able to drive the US Asiatic Squadron away from the Philippines, but its unlikely they can pull off anything as smashing as Tsushima IOTL, and even if they can they have to do it two or three times more to deal with the fleet the US can bring to bear in less than a year. Much like the Two Ocean Navy in WWII, the navy the US is building is larger than the one they have in the water.

It's no WWII with unconditional surrender as the goal, but the war likely ends after a couple major fleet actions when Japan basically runs out of ships and the US is likewise running low, with a minor transfer of islands and increased US investment in Pacific fleet bases and coaling stations going into 1904. And, of course, if McKinley still gets assassinated...well, Teddy Roosevelt finally found his war.
 

GarethC

Donor
Does America retain the Philippines, or wash its hands of them as not worth the bones of a single Alabaman infantryman?
Does Russia seek to intervene against Japan? Will that trigger British involvement (obviously it would in 1902 with the Anglo-Japanese Alliance)?

Russia and France have an alliance, but that's aimed at Germany rather than Britain or Japan, so France will probably stay out unless Germany gets involved.
 
Does America retain the Philippines, or wash its hands of them as not worth the bones of a single Alabaman infantryman?
Americans at the time considered it worth several thousand KIA and another few thousand wounded to wage a wage against the Filipinos themselves to secure the Philippines after gaining them from the Spanish, so I think it's likely they can stomach similar or higher casualties against a potential peer competitor trying to take what they have rightfully stolen liberated.
Does Russia seek to intervene against Japan? Will that trigger British involvement (obviously it would in 1902 with the Anglo-Japanese Alliance)?
Russia might take the chance to intervene, but as I understand it the 1902 treaty was a matter of joining in defense only--hence why IOTL Britain wasn't obligated to declare war on Russia in alliance with Japan in 1905, as Japan was the aggressor against Russia. If Britain wasn't in a hurry to move against Russia, I doubt they would in a rush to declare war against the US--too much risk for too little reward.

Waiting until after the 1902 treaty is probably a non-starter for Japan anyway, as in the meantime the US is (1) securing their hold on the Philippines and (2) continuing their own massive naval buildup, one of the largest in peacetime. By 1902, Japan has taken custody of basically every ship they can expect before 1905 (most of their 1905 acquisitions were surrendered Russian ships). They have 5 battleships. The US by 1902 have 6 sea going battleships in commission plus the 3 coastal Indiana-class, 3 more of the Maine-class fitting out which might be available for war service within a year, and 5 more of the Virginia-class under construction. While the US can't bring all of that to bear immediately or at once, the Japanese also have to worry about the potential of Russian forces in their rear. If the Russians do jump in, then Britain would have to make the hard choice of joining a war against the US and Russia over a "mutual defense" treaty that Japan barely waited until the ink was dry on before beginning to abuse.
 
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