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What-If the Western part of ATL Russia roughly resembled the map below as a result of losing OTL territories such as the Republic of Karelia along with the Murmansk and Leningrad Oblasts (to either Sweden or Finland), yet ATL Russia still manages to gain access to the Baltic Sea via an earlier conquest of East Prussia (ideally before the Seven Years War where East Prussia was briefly occupied by Russian troops in OTL)?
What PODs would it entail to make such a scenario possible and how would a present day ATL Russia compare in economic terms / etc to OTL Russia, especially with any alternate equivalent to Saint Petersburg being located elsewhere?