WI - Alternate Russia with the following borders to its West

What-If the Western part of ATL Russia roughly resembled the map below as a result of losing OTL territories such as the Republic of Karelia along with the Murmansk and Leningrad Oblasts (to either Sweden or Finland), yet ATL Russia still manages to gain access to the Baltic Sea via an earlier conquest of East Prussia (ideally before the Seven Years War where East Prussia was briefly occupied by Russian troops in OTL)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Prussia

What PODs would it entail to make such a scenario possible and how would a present day ATL Russia compare in economic terms / etc to OTL Russia, especially with any alternate equivalent to Saint Petersburg being located elsewhere?

World-2013-QBAM original blank map.png
 
Seems like a combination of a Sweden wank and a Poland-Lithuana screw. You'd basically have to keep Sweden somehow strong enough to hold onto the Baltic AND have Russia screw over Poland AND not have them turn on Sweden afterwards.
 
Okay it's a "simple to state not really simple to do" POD Keep the Kievan Rus which was Russia+ what would be Belarus and Ukraine, and actually, make it into a viable state with less fratricidal infighting. From there possibly have a prince or two decide to go invade the Lithuanian and Prussian tribes and maybe so disputes with Poland, all the while still not really expanding into either the rest of Livonia or northwards.

The exacting details would be an uphill battle.
 
In terms of Economy and Resources, what would an ATL Russia gain and lose from having access to the Baltic Sea via a Russian-ruled East Prussia as well as territory of Belarus / parts of Ukraine compared to OTL Russia?
 
A nitpick, but it's rather unlikely that any ATL Russia would have such borders in the north. The Leningrad oblast was a Soviet creation, while Sweden historically controlled only the region of Ingria, which is considerably smaller.
 
What about a scenario where Lithuania goes orthodox rather than Catholic, and you then have a russo-Lithuanian union rather than polish-Lithuanian union?

I feel the Gulf of Finland was the natural outlet for Russia on the Baltic largely because it was where the trade routes through Novgorod terminated. There wasn't really any trade routes of nearly the same significance leading to east Prussia, although there's no reason there couldn't be one going down the neman river
 
What about a scenario where Lithuania goes orthodox rather than Catholic, and you then have a russo-Lithuanian union rather than polish-Lithuanian union?

I feel the Gulf of Finland was the natural outlet for Russia on the Baltic largely because it was where the trade routes through Novgorod terminated. There wasn't really any trade routes of nearly the same significance leading to east Prussia, although there's no reason there couldn't be one going down the neman river
As far as a Russo-Lithuanian union, just have the proposals that led up to the Union of Lublin fail. The Polish nobles and the Lithuanians weren't agreeing on certain terms during negotiations prior to the acceptance of the union. Keep Mikołaj "Rudy" Radziwiłł as the head of the Lithuanian delegation and it might be enough for Russia to make a move. IIRC, Russia was still involved in the Livonian War at that time.
 
As far as a Russo-Lithuanian union, just have the proposals that led up to the Union of Lublin fail. The Polish nobles and the Lithuanians weren't agreeing on certain terms during negotiations prior to the acceptance of the union. Keep Mikołaj "Rudy" Radziwiłł as the head of the Lithuanian delegation and it might be enough for Russia to make a move. IIRC, Russia was still involved in the Livonian War at that time.

The war just started a year ago. Would that even be a possibility? Ivan the Great had an alliance and still was willing take territory from Lithuania and had driven their allied party from Novgorod, by 1568 they have had 4 years of Prince Kurbsky being in Lithuania, would they really want to take that risk of a union under Ivan the Terrible?
 
The whole reason that Lithuania accepted the terms that Poland had presented was that the leader of the delegation had changed and Lithuania wanted to avoid being absorbed by Russia. If Russia is to get a hold of Lithuania it would have to be by force.
 
The northern borders seem to result from Sweden defeating Russia in the Great Northern War (after Prussia and Saxony-Poland exited in 1706), which was perfectly possible. However, that very POD makes Russia's rise to power far from certain, as it would requiry a long term compromise/alliance with the Swedes, accepting their supremacy in the Baltic, thus making a significantly less rich/powerful Russian empire. In that context (Sweden still a military superpower), combined with the (in my opinion, very unlikely) Prussian screw in the east, the only way to get Russia to annex so much of Poland without everyone getting upset about the Balance of Power would be a Partition of Poland equivalent, with Sweden instead of Prussia. Now, getting that to happen is not easy by any means.
Firstly, you have the fact that it was victory in the GNW what allowed Russia to expand not only northwards, but also westwards, as it put in place the 1717 "silent Sejm", which ensured pervasive Russian influence in Poland all the way to its partition; so no Russian victory=no Russian-dominated Poland in the early 18th century. Not only that, but the Treaty of Warsaw bounded the Commonwealth to then Swedish Empire.
Secondly, the only thing that allowed for foreign influence (be it Russian or otherwise) to take ahold of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the first place were King Augustus II the Strong's ambitions for an absolute monarchy: Being unable to find anyone to help him from within, he turned to outside forces, namely Russia, in order to fulfill that ridiculous dream. Thing is, during the war, he was deposed by the Swedes after his Saxon-Polish army got trashed three times and Warsaw, Krakow and Dresden were occupied and a puppet ruler was put in his place.
Thirdly, it is really hard to overestimate how catastrophic a defeat in that war could had been for the Russians: They not only would had lost possibilities to expand, but they could had lost control of Ukraine as well, which in convination with the loss of the northern territories (no Petrograd!) could be potentially cripling to an aspiring great power. Let's remember that this is not the Great Russian Empire we assosiate with the late 18th and 19th centuries, but a politically volatile backwards state whose attempts at westernisation and modernisation will, in this TL, be rewarded with a bitchslap. It won't be able to expand to the balkans, it is uncertain if they will be able to wrestle the caucasus from the Ottoman Empire (a Swidish ally, by the way), or even dominate the eastern stepes. So if you want this Russia-gets-eastern-PLC scenario, you probably need a POD that give both Russia and Sweden a voice in whatever peace terms are to be offered. Maybe a Swedish victory at Poltava that doesn't completly destroy Russian ability to keep fighting might do the trick.
Then there is the issue with the Prussians. If the results of this GNW do not affect the War of Spanish succession (and thats a big If), then I'd expect a War of Austrian Succession-equivalent a few decades down the line, and that war is just a gold mine for Prussia-screw. So if you have a Russia that has not been totally emasculated (and ideally has been allowed to keep Ukraine, keyword "allowed"), then this hipothetical alliance could gang up on Prussia and take from them whatever they can. Maybe Sweden gets all of Pomerania and Russia keeps East Prussia, as in the map. After that, concerns about Sweden having both Baltic supremacy and being the master of a puppet Poland will inevitably raise concerns over the Balance of Power so, as long as Russia has recovered and continued modernizing, a partition might be a way to avoid a new anti-Swedish coalition being formed, but Austria will keep a way bigger piece than OTL (they are way stronger with a shorter war and keeping Silesia). The politics (inside the PLC) of how that could be done are way beyond my knwoledge, though.

Another reason I'm not sure if there will be a War of Austrian Succession is because without a Swedish defeat, the puppet Polish king (who was Louis XV's father in law) will not receive the duchy of Lorraine fron France. This means that the previous Duke of Lorraine, Maria Theresa of Austria's future husband, is not forced to "exchange" it for Tuscany When the Medici family goes extinct. Having an Austrian stronghold practically inside their borders has a lot of potential for either dissuading a conflict or altering it completely.
 
Top