The northern borders seem to result from Sweden defeating Russia in the Great Northern War (after Prussia and Saxony-Poland exited in 1706), which was perfectly possible. However, that very POD makes Russia's rise to power far from certain, as it would requiry a long term compromise/alliance with the Swedes, accepting their supremacy in the Baltic, thus making a significantly less rich/powerful Russian empire. In that context (Sweden still a military superpower), combined with the (in my opinion, very unlikely) Prussian screw in the east, the only way to get Russia to annex so much of Poland without everyone getting upset about the Balance of Power would be a Partition of Poland equivalent, with Sweden instead of Prussia. Now, getting that to happen is not easy by any means.
Firstly, you have the fact that it was victory in the GNW what allowed Russia to expand not only northwards, but also westwards, as it put in place the 1717 "silent Sejm", which ensured pervasive Russian influence in Poland all the way to its partition; so no Russian victory=no Russian-dominated Poland in the early 18th century. Not only that, but the Treaty of Warsaw bounded the Commonwealth to then Swedish Empire.
Secondly, the only thing that allowed for foreign influence (be it Russian or otherwise) to take ahold of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the first place were King Augustus II the Strong's ambitions for an absolute monarchy: Being unable to find anyone to help him from within, he turned to outside forces, namely Russia, in order to fulfill that ridiculous dream. Thing is, during the war, he was deposed by the Swedes after his Saxon-Polish army got trashed three times and Warsaw, Krakow and Dresden were occupied and a puppet ruler was put in his place.
Thirdly, it is really hard to overestimate how catastrophic a defeat in that war could had been for the Russians: They not only would had lost possibilities to expand, but they could had lost control of Ukraine as well, which in convination with the loss of the northern territories (no Petrograd!) could be potentially cripling to an aspiring great power. Let's remember that this is not the Great Russian Empire we assosiate with the late 18th and 19th centuries, but a politically volatile backwards state whose attempts at westernisation and modernisation will, in this TL, be rewarded with a bitchslap. It won't be able to expand to the balkans, it is uncertain if they will be able to wrestle the caucasus from the Ottoman Empire (a Swidish ally, by the way), or even dominate the eastern stepes. So if you want this Russia-gets-eastern-PLC scenario, you probably need a POD that give both Russia and Sweden a voice in whatever peace terms are to be offered. Maybe a Swedish victory at Poltava that doesn't completly destroy Russian ability to keep fighting might do the trick.
Then there is the issue with the Prussians. If the results of this GNW do not affect the War of Spanish succession (and thats a big If), then I'd expect a War of Austrian Succession-equivalent a few decades down the line, and that war is just a gold mine for Prussia-screw. So if you have a Russia that has not been totally emasculated (and ideally has been allowed to keep Ukraine, keyword "allowed"), then this hipothetical alliance could gang up on Prussia and take from them whatever they can. Maybe Sweden gets all of Pomerania and Russia keeps East Prussia, as in the map. After that, concerns about Sweden having both Baltic supremacy and being the master of a puppet Poland will inevitably raise concerns over the Balance of Power so, as long as Russia has recovered and continued modernizing, a partition might be a way to avoid a new anti-Swedish coalition being formed, but Austria will keep a way bigger piece than OTL (they are way stronger with a shorter war and keeping Silesia). The politics (inside the PLC) of how that could be done are way beyond my knwoledge, though.
Another reason I'm not sure if there will be a War of Austrian Succession is because without a Swedish defeat, the puppet Polish king (who was Louis XV's father in law) will not receive the duchy of Lorraine fron France. This means that the previous Duke of Lorraine, Maria Theresa of Austria's future husband, is not forced to "exchange" it for Tuscany When the Medici family goes extinct. Having an Austrian stronghold practically inside their borders has a lot of potential for either dissuading a conflict or altering it completely.