WI: Alternate Congress of Vienna more favorable to Austria

Skallagrim

Banned
As others have noted: this will not happen. Even if Austria somehow beats France practically alone-- if austria then stakes claims like these, that will ensure an Anti-Austrian coalition at once. A coalition that will, if need be, actually go to war over the matter.

That doesn't mean Austria can't get more than in OTL. You have to consider balance and incentive. Don't make Austria too powerful directly, but get extra bits by offering the other great powers juicy bits in return. (The lesser players can be largely ignored. They will get what the big dogs deign to give them, or they will be kicked out like beggars.)

-- Austria can get more German lands (e.g. the Rhineland) directly, and can get other Southern/Catholic German states tied into a South German Union. The trick is to offer Prussia the same deal as far as all of Northern Germany (except Hanover) is concerned.

-- Austria can even get a "Belgian" state included in the South German Union (OTL Belgium + Catholic bits of OTL Netherlands + Luxembourg). The trick is, again, to basically give the Potestant/Northern Netherlands to Prussia (either directly, or as a vassal within a Prussia-led North German Union). Note that the smaller-than-OTL anti-French buffer state (alt-Belgium instead of United Kingdom of the Netherlands) can be justified, since said state is actually more secure-- being part of the South German Union.

-- Austria can get both the Eastern half of Switzerland and all of Alsace-Lorraine, in exchange for giving Western Switzerland to France. Note that the victorious powers didn't wish to dismantle France, but giving it parts of Switzerland while cutting off Alsace-Lorraine is strategically a sound move that would make French attempts at invading any part of greater Germany more difficult.

-- Instead of grabbing up bits of Italy, Austria can get more foreign support for the above by not claiming parts of Italy, and instead heartily supporting a strong Northern Italian Kingdom. This would fit in with the "surround France with strong states"-idea, too.

-- Poland is tricky, since Alexander saw himself as the rightful overlord and "protector" there. Maybe clever diplomacy can get things done there, maybe not. In any event: whatever you give to Austria, you must give in equal or greater measure to Prussia.

-- To get Britain on board with all this, it may be required to allow them to annex Oldenburg to Hanover.
 
-- Instead of grabbing up bits of Italy, Austria can get more foreign support for the above by not claiming parts of Italy, and instead heartily supporting a strong Northern Italian Kingdom. This would fit in with the "surround France with strong states"-idea, too.
I can imagine a scenario in which the Kingdom of Savoy is partitioned due to whatever reason (maybe if the Savoyard monarchs end up too liberal for the Great Powers' tastes after Napoleon is defeated? Or a harsher Austrian treatment of Savoy after the Italian war of 1848-49 that sees them want the latter wiped off the map?). Austria could get The Piedmont valley, with the "core" of the region around Torino, while France annexes Nice and Alpine Savoy earlier than IOTL. This would enlarge the Habsburg fiefdom of Lombardy-Venetia, which would, however, increase the amount of Italians the Kaiser will have to deal with, thus making the possibility of an autonomous Lombard kingdom under a Habsburg noble more attractive.
All these are minor bites off nearby chunks of territory to, on paper, increase Austria's defensive perimeter, however.
 
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