I haven't touched much post-1900s PoDs and was reading recently about the history behind the Entente Cordialle.
I set up two PoDs to occur in the very late 1800s that I think pave the way for the
potential of more likely Anglo-German friendly ties (to an extent?) I wanted to get feedback, input and speculation on how this might come together.
I borrowed
several ideas from this thread, which comes from way back. None of them make their way in completely but, anyway:
1). In February of 1898, Wilhelm II was killed by a freak brain aneurysm. While dismounting from a horse, he insisted that he needed no assistance, but his crippled right arm made the process difficult. He accidentally fell but cluched onto the reigns out of reflex. He was then hard kicked in the head by his horse and a clot formed. He died 8 hours later. His-then 15 year old son, Friedrich Wilhelm III would be pulled out of military college and crowned Kaiser Wilhelm III in June. Otto von Bismarck suffered what was believed to be a near stroke at the time, but made a surprisingly quick recovery given his age. Wilhelm II's wife Augusta implored Bismarck to return into government service to be a mentor to her young son and to act as a bulwark against the inevitable politicing that was going to manifest itself in the vacuum left with Wilhelm II's death. Despite his age and bitterness towards Wilhelm II, Bismarck agreed and re-entered into a special advisory position to the new emperor.
2). In June of 1898, Gabriel Hanotaux saw his position as Minister of Foreign Affairs renewed for a time. Hanotaux wanted to see a
rapprochement in Franco-Russian relations and was distrustful of the British. In July of that year, the Fashoda Incident occurs, but unlike OTL an exhausted French soldier in Jean-Baptiste Marchand's expedition accidentally fires on a British soldier. A resulting skirmish occurs, in which six frenchman and one britishman die. Marchand and the commander of the gunboat flotilla from Britain, Sir Herbet Kitchener agree on a temporary ceasefire. When word reaches France however of the casualties, Hanotaux pushes for the French to maintain the fort and demands that the British vacate the area or that they risk war. The six deaths stir French public opinion, and both sides begin drumming up for war. In September, Britain orders Kitchener to occupy the fort.
I think it's relevant to stick this in the post-1900s thread, since the changes that'll come about hit during the new century. My original PoD idea was an Anglo-German alliance, but I'm not set on it: there's a lot of interesting things that can happen here. Any other PoDs in this brief timeframe that could come up are welcome.
Since this is mostly feedback and speculation, I'll posit some things I've gathered from reading other threads:
- Edward VII was an instrumental part in the Anglo-French detente, but he was supposedly stonewalled a lot by Wilhelm II (and it didn't help they disliked each other). Edward remains alive during this time, but a different end to the Fashoda Incident might make initial detente hard. Wilhelm's death at least changes the future of their relations (not sure whether it's for good or worse).
- A worse Fashoda Incident creates a high possibility for conflict. Reading other threads, I imagine Britain would've won it and been able to work out some concessions from France. Depending on the nature of these concessions, a cordiale could still happen I believe (if they're lenient) but it could also lead to a complete alienation of the French- especially if they're forced to give up colonies and if the war becomes more serious. Input on this is alot of what I need (I realize there's quite a few Fashoda PoDs written out there, any links to them is appreciated).
- The death of Wilhelm II solves a lot of problems for Germany in terms of diplomacy and development, but then creates a giant power vacuum in imperial politics. With his son only 10 years old at the time of his death and its temporal abruptness, Bernhard von Bülow is the most likely to enter the vacuum. I extended Bismarck's life-span by a bit, but for the sake of not going overboard with fantasy he'll probably only live 3-4 years and his influence had run out by that point. I think it's fun to imagine a short spurt of ressurgence for him, but I'm not really sure how realistic that is and whether or not having him "mentor" Wilhelm III is plausible. I'll take an ASB step though and throw it in there for interests sake, and wiki says he accurately predicted some of the problems that would befall Europe with Wilhelm II's foreign policy- so that at the very least gives Germany a better chance at not ending up as they did IOTL.
- This PoD opens up a whole bunch of future possibilites elsewhere throughout the world. The Venezuala Incident comes to mind (some variation of it), but it depends on who's
de facto controlling the German Navy. Bülow was a yesman to Wilhelm II iirc, but I'm not sure how that'd be with a 15 year old Kaiser Wilhelm III (more decision making power?) If Britain and the U.S. botch the incident it could lead to a cooling of ties between the two, I think it'd be fun to explore that or some variation of it.
- Russo-Japanese War happens not long after this. I assume it still happens, not sure if there's any PoDs that could change the outcome but as with all history, I imagine there are some. Any thoughts on this.
Ultimately this is imo a critical period for the development of ties that led to WWI IOTL. I've disrupted it a fair bit, and there's the possibility for disrupting it more as well (PoD where Edward VII dies of appendicitis, struggles in Russia, Balkans, etc.) Any input on that is welcome too, if you have any interesting additions etc.