WI: Alternate build-up to "WWI" (or some great european war)

I haven't touched much post-1900s PoDs and was reading recently about the history behind the Entente Cordialle.

I set up two PoDs to occur in the very late 1800s that I think pave the way for the potential of more likely Anglo-German friendly ties (to an extent?) I wanted to get feedback, input and speculation on how this might come together.

I borrowed several ideas from this thread, which comes from way back. None of them make their way in completely but, anyway:

1). In February of 1898, Wilhelm II was killed by a freak brain aneurysm. While dismounting from a horse, he insisted that he needed no assistance, but his crippled right arm made the process difficult. He accidentally fell but cluched onto the reigns out of reflex. He was then hard kicked in the head by his horse and a clot formed. He died 8 hours later. His-then 15 year old son, Friedrich Wilhelm III would be pulled out of military college and crowned Kaiser Wilhelm III in June. Otto von Bismarck suffered what was believed to be a near stroke at the time, but made a surprisingly quick recovery given his age. Wilhelm II's wife Augusta implored Bismarck to return into government service to be a mentor to her young son and to act as a bulwark against the inevitable politicing that was going to manifest itself in the vacuum left with Wilhelm II's death. Despite his age and bitterness towards Wilhelm II, Bismarck agreed and re-entered into a special advisory position to the new emperor.

2). In June of 1898, Gabriel Hanotaux saw his position as Minister of Foreign Affairs renewed for a time. Hanotaux wanted to see a rapprochement in Franco-Russian relations and was distrustful of the British. In July of that year, the Fashoda Incident occurs, but unlike OTL an exhausted French soldier in Jean-Baptiste Marchand's expedition accidentally fires on a British soldier. A resulting skirmish occurs, in which six frenchman and one britishman die. Marchand and the commander of the gunboat flotilla from Britain, Sir Herbet Kitchener agree on a temporary ceasefire. When word reaches France however of the casualties, Hanotaux pushes for the French to maintain the fort and demands that the British vacate the area or that they risk war. The six deaths stir French public opinion, and both sides begin drumming up for war. In September, Britain orders Kitchener to occupy the fort.

I think it's relevant to stick this in the post-1900s thread, since the changes that'll come about hit during the new century. My original PoD idea was an Anglo-German alliance, but I'm not set on it: there's a lot of interesting things that can happen here. Any other PoDs in this brief timeframe that could come up are welcome.

Since this is mostly feedback and speculation, I'll posit some things I've gathered from reading other threads:

- Edward VII was an instrumental part in the Anglo-French detente, but he was supposedly stonewalled a lot by Wilhelm II (and it didn't help they disliked each other). Edward remains alive during this time, but a different end to the Fashoda Incident might make initial detente hard. Wilhelm's death at least changes the future of their relations (not sure whether it's for good or worse).

- A worse Fashoda Incident creates a high possibility for conflict. Reading other threads, I imagine Britain would've won it and been able to work out some concessions from France. Depending on the nature of these concessions, a cordiale could still happen I believe (if they're lenient) but it could also lead to a complete alienation of the French- especially if they're forced to give up colonies and if the war becomes more serious. Input on this is alot of what I need (I realize there's quite a few Fashoda PoDs written out there, any links to them is appreciated).

- The death of Wilhelm II solves a lot of problems for Germany in terms of diplomacy and development, but then creates a giant power vacuum in imperial politics. With his son only 10 years old at the time of his death and its temporal abruptness, Bernhard von Bülow is the most likely to enter the vacuum. I extended Bismarck's life-span by a bit, but for the sake of not going overboard with fantasy he'll probably only live 3-4 years and his influence had run out by that point. I think it's fun to imagine a short spurt of ressurgence for him, but I'm not really sure how realistic that is and whether or not having him "mentor" Wilhelm III is plausible. I'll take an ASB step though and throw it in there for interests sake, and wiki says he accurately predicted some of the problems that would befall Europe with Wilhelm II's foreign policy- so that at the very least gives Germany a better chance at not ending up as they did IOTL.

- This PoD opens up a whole bunch of future possibilites elsewhere throughout the world. The Venezuala Incident comes to mind (some variation of it), but it depends on who's de facto controlling the German Navy. Bülow was a yesman to Wilhelm II iirc, but I'm not sure how that'd be with a 15 year old Kaiser Wilhelm III (more decision making power?) If Britain and the U.S. botch the incident it could lead to a cooling of ties between the two, I think it'd be fun to explore that or some variation of it.

- Russo-Japanese War happens not long after this. I assume it still happens, not sure if there's any PoDs that could change the outcome but as with all history, I imagine there are some. Any thoughts on this.

Ultimately this is imo a critical period for the development of ties that led to WWI IOTL. I've disrupted it a fair bit, and there's the possibility for disrupting it more as well (PoD where Edward VII dies of appendicitis, struggles in Russia, Balkans, etc.) Any input on that is welcome too, if you have any interesting additions etc.
 
For the most part I think you are grasping at straws. Keep Wilhelm II's death simple - he got kicked in the head by a horse - who cares he had a 'freak brain aneurysm'. I doubt an autopsy would be done. Even prolonging Bismarck's life probably won't bring him back, but more importantly it would be necessary to see if Bismarck would follow the same policies he set while in office.

Also I think too much regarding Anglo-German antagonism is conveniently accredited to Wilhelm II, when he most likely served as a figurehead for anti-British sentiment in Germany and probably a pawn for the German foreign office.

Should Wilhelm II die there most likely would be a regency with his brother Prince Heinrich, who was pro-British.
 
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Here is the beginning of my failed TL which was indeed an Anglo-German treaty. The footnotes explain it some. Basically, Chamberlain, who was a super pro-german and opposed to France (likely due to having to compete with the French more often as Colonial Minister) becomes Foreign Affairs minister. Also, Boer War goes a bit different, which was a major falling out point between the UK and Germany IOTL.


Prologue:
Two Teutonic Titans

“A diplomat can tell you to go to hell in a way that you actually look forward to the trip." - Caskie Stinnett [1]


November 30th, 1899 marked the beginning of a new model in Anglo-German relationships, and subsequently a new model of European and world politics. Although Baron Hermann von Eckardstein, First Secretary of the German Embassy, had first contacted Joseph Chamberlain in the previous year, there had been little progress and certainly nothing official. However, in November of 1899, the Chamberlain was given another chance. Following a friendly and promising visit from Kaiser Wilhelm II and Bernhard von Bülow, Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Chamberlain openly praised Germany and spoke of a possible future together, speaking of “a new friendship between the Teutonic race and the two great trans-Atlantic branches of the Anglo-Saxon race which would become a potent influence on the future of the world.” [2] This newly budding friendship would be tested very soon.

“In attempt to stop matériel from reaching the Boers in the Free State and Transvaal, the Royal Navy effectively began intercepting and inspecting foreign ships. However, the Unionist Government thought it would be unwise to upset Germany and so German ships were only shadowed in as they passed through the region. [3] Anglo-German relations were nearly irreversibly damaged as Admiral Tirpitz attempted to pass the Second Naval Law. However, these flames were suppressed by von Bülow and Friedrich von Holstein, who were able to convince Wilhelm that such an expansion of the
Kaiserliche Marine would be seen as too aggressive against the Royal Navy, an ally Wilhelm very much wanted. The Second Naval Law did pass but it was weakened from Tirpitz's original hopes, only increasing the number of battleships by seven and instead focusing on a cruisers to support colonial territories. The reasoning for this was that Germany did not want to challenge British authority on the seas, but merely be well defended, both around the continent and in her colonies.

“There was no official aligning of the British and German peoples until Arthur Balfour's term as Prime Minister. When Lord Salisbury resigned in late June of 1902, the Second Boer War had just ended and Edward VII's coronation would soon follow. Balfour replaced Lord Lansdowne as Secretary of State of Foreign Affairs with Joseph Chamberlain, in part due to persuasion by Walter Rothschild, who was beginning to become a closer ally of both men. [4] What was more important, however, was his connection with Edward VII. The Rothschild family had kept close connections with the soon-to-be King, offering a fair amount of financial advice and Walter himself had been seen with the Prince, who was criticized for openly associating with Jews.

On February 7, 1903, the Anglo-German Treaty was signed, although it would later be amended several times, in relative secrecy. It was not a lengthy document, consisting of only six brief points, while using vague language such as 'spheres of influence' and a 'promise to communicate'. The full impact of this action would not be fully realized until a decade later.” [5]

The Triumvirate by Jack Bauer, Harvard University Press, 1978

------------


[1] TTL's version of the quote. OTL's version: “A diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip.”
[2] A minor POD: IOTL Chamberlain said 'alliance' rather than 'friendship' and was mocked for such a premature statement.
[3] IOTL three German ships were boarded and searched for arms, with none being found. This offended the German public and government. It was in this atmosphere of bitterness towards the British and their Navy that the Second Naval Law, arguably the most critical of bunch, was passed. ITTL this does not happen.
[4] Walter Rothschild could have been a much more influential man. ITTL he is still interested in zoology and lepidopterist, but to a lesser extent, also focusing on the family banking and politics. The reason he would support Chamberlain, who was more German-friendly than Lord Lansdowne (Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs in OTL during the beginning of the Entente Cordiale), for this position would be due to Chamberlain's Zionist sympathies.
[5] It is basically an entente cordiale, the UK refusing to be truly tied to continental affairs, just like OTL. Some of the issues that OTL's Entente Cordialeresolves are not fixed but France and the UK do not have anything as large as the Fashoda Incedent happen.
 
I haven't touched much post-1900s PoDs and was reading recently about the history behind the Entente Cordialle.

I set up two PoDs to occur in the very late 1800s that I think pave the way for the potential of more likely Anglo-German friendly ties (to an extent?) I wanted to get feedback, input and speculation on how this might come together.

I borrowed several ideas from this thread, which comes from way back. None of them make their way in completely but, anyway:

1). In February of 1898, Wilhelm II was killed by a freak brain aneurysm. While dismounting from a horse, he insisted that he needed no assistance, but his crippled right arm made the process difficult. He accidentally fell but cluched onto the reigns out of reflex. He was then hard kicked in the head by his horse and a clot formed. He died 8 hours later. His-then 15 year old son, Friedrich Wilhelm III would be pulled out of military college and crowned Kaiser Wilhelm III in June. Otto von Bismarck suffered what was believed to be a near stroke at the time, but made a surprisingly quick recovery given his age. Wilhelm II's wife Augusta implored Bismarck to return into government service to be a mentor to her young son and to act as a bulwark against the inevitable politicing that was going to manifest itself in the vacuum left with Wilhelm II's death. Despite his age and bitterness towards Wilhelm II, Bismarck agreed and re-entered into a special advisory position to the new emperor.

Wilhelm had trained himself to be a very good horseman for a man with one-and-a-bit usable arms (qv his visit to Morocco). A slip and a kick in the head would do the job.

2). In June of 1898, Gabriel Hanotaux saw his position as Minister of Foreign Affairs renewed for a time. Hanotaux wanted to see a rapprochement in Franco-Russian relations and was distrustful of the British. In July of that year, the Fashoda Incident occurs, but unlike OTL an exhausted French soldier in Jean-Baptiste Marchand's expedition accidentally fires on a British soldier. A resulting skirmish occurs, in which six frenchman and one britishman die. Marchand and the commander of the gunboat flotilla from Britain, Sir Herbet Kitchener agree on a temporary ceasefire. When word reaches France however of the casualties, Hanotaux pushes for the French to maintain the fort and demands that the British vacate the area or that they risk war. The six deaths stir French public opinion, and both sides begin drumming up for war. In September, Britain orders Kitchener to occupy the fort.

Getting rid of the Dreyfuss Affair (ie not have it happen) is probably useful here as that was the reason for the change of ministry in 1898.

Salisbury and Chamberlain are going to be the key figures here, and if their policy leads to a war with France, then Chamberlain's favoured option of an alliance with Germany is going to come to fruition, especially as Wili's not around to confuse things.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I think it's relevant to stick this in the post-1900s thread, since the changes that'll come about hit during the new century. My original PoD idea was an Anglo-German alliance, but I'm not set on it: there's a lot of interesting things that can happen here. Any other PoDs in this brief timeframe that could come up are welcome.

Alliances don't have to last forever, and a defensive alliance against France signed in haste in 1899 doesn't need to be renewed or extended. I can't see Britain making the decision to risk war with France (order Kitchener to occupy the fort) without having secured this flank.

It could also have the useful effect of limiting the war to the colonies and the sea - ie if France were to try to invade Britain then the alliance kicks in and Germany invades France. That's a very powerful weapon and would bring France quickly to the negotiating table.

There would be some actions at sea, perhaps seeing French submarines sink some British warships, but for the mostpart seeing French units stomped on by the RN

Given that France is going to want peace soon enough, there probably isn't time to extend it actively to many more places, maybe something in the Caribbean, an invasion of St Barts or St Martin perhaps, lol

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
- Edward VII was an instrumental part in the Anglo-French detente, but he was supposedly stonewalled a lot by Wilhelm II (and it didn't help they disliked each other). Edward remains alive during this time, but a different end to the Fashoda Incident might make initial detente hard. Wilhelm's death at least changes the future of their relations (not sure whether it's for good or worse).

Edward VII was useful and influential because he was useful. I'm not one to demean the role of monarchy, but it was only because it was British GOVERNMENT policy that the monarch could play a strong supporting role.

He is going to be as much anti-French as anyone, anyway, what with a recent conflict, and German cousins he can actually get on with - Heinrich was a keen sailor, and a German admiral of course.

British policy is going to be guided by Salisbury and Chamberlain, and one interesting question is about the next generation - Balfour advanced in OTL because he was Salisbury's nephew, basically, but with a victorious war, warmer relations with Germany, and interestingly veteran units from Fashoda available to redeploy in South Africa, the Boer War is probably going to go a lot better for Britain.

There's also the Boxer Rebellion, which coujld also help seal Anglo-German friendshi. One wonders if France would contribute, maybe in this timeline it would be a Seven Nation Alliance, not an Eight...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
- A worse Fashoda Incident creates a high possibility for conflict. Reading other threads, I imagine Britain would've won it and been able to work out some concessions from France. Depending on the nature of these concessions, a cordiale could still happen I believe (if they're lenient) but it could also lead to a complete alienation of the French- especially if they're forced to give up colonies and if the war becomes more serious. Input on this is alot of what I need (I realize there's quite a few Fashoda PoDs written out there, any links to them is appreciated).

I believe there is no chance of any significant coming together of France and UK within 20 years of Fashoda.

However, as I said above I believe the war will be limited in extent and duration, that it would be confined to the Soudan, the oceans and to some opportunistic attacks in the Caribbean etc.

The war can have made the submarine a potent weapon (French submarines were the most advanced in the world). It may also give a push to earlier development of the dreadnought (at least so far as all-big-gun).

- The death of Wilhelm II solves a lot of problems for Germany in terms of diplomacy and development, but then creates a giant power vacuum in imperial politics. With his son only 10 years old at the time of his death and its temporal abruptness, Bernhard von Bülow is the most likely to enter the vacuum. I extended Bismarck's life-span by a bit, but for the sake of not going overboard with fantasy he'll probably only live 3-4 years and his influence had run out by that point. I think it's fun to imagine a short spurt of ressurgence for him, but I'm not really sure how realistic that is and whether or not having him "mentor" Wilhelm III is plausible. I'll take an ASB step though and throw it in there for interests sake, and wiki says he accurately predicted some of the problems that would befall Europe with Wilhelm II's foreign policy- so that at the very least gives Germany a better chance at not ending up as they did IOTL.

Imperial politics is something of a misnomer because we focus on Wilhelm's role whereas he should not have had that role. Don't overlook Holstein and other behind-the-scenes people.

The German body politic could be a whole lot healthier since Regent Heinrich is going to be picking chancellors more on their merits than playing internal politics with them.

I think your Bismarck idea makes sense, and don't forget his son who could be Foreign Minister at this time.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
- This PoD opens up a whole bunch of future possibilites elsewhere throughout the world. The Venezuala Incident comes to mind (some variation of it), but it depends on who's de facto controlling the German Navy. Bülow was a yesman to Wilhelm II iirc, but I'm not sure how that'd be with a 15 year old Kaiser Wilhelm III (more decision making power?) If Britain and the U.S. botch the incident it could lead to a cooling of ties between the two, I think it'd be fun to explore that or some variation of it.

http://www.marxists.org/archive/deleon/pdf/1903/feb17_1903.pdf
is most intriguing contemporary view of the Venezuela Incident

In your timeline it comes on the heels of probable British attacks on French possessions in the Caribbean during the short Fashoda war.

Britain, Germany and Italy make an interesting alliance structure too. Its probably one increasingly reflected in Europe (Italy always wanted to be in the same alliance as Britain)

It could be interesting to ramp up Anglo-US tensions at this time, and may lead to the fall of Salisbury's government if there is a backlash against what some of the press will see as war-mongering.

That might allow Earl Spencer to lead a Liberal administration, up until his stroke, which could be an interesting turn of events. One change leads to others and echo onwards

- Russo-Japanese War happens not long after this. I assume it still happens, not sure if there's any PoDs that could change the outcome but as with all history, I imagine there are some. Any thoughts on this.

On balance I would think it does happen, but things could well be different. With a British alliance, Germany may not give the Hamburg-Amerika Company permission to coal the Russian fleet, so there is no relief fleet sent out to die at Tsu Shima

This could have a curious effect, because only its annihilation brought a closing to the war. The question is whether Russia sues for peace earlier, with no hope of the fleet coming to change things. Or whether it fights on to the bitter end, which may mean it wins by default as Japan was almost bankrupt by the time of TsuShima

Russia refusing to consider peace is a realistic idea, so when Japan bogs down, runs out of credit and has to fall back on the British alliance to get out of the hole, thats when peace comes...

It stymies Japan's rise and is less of a disaster for Russia, who also have their Baltic Fleet intact

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Damn, too much to reply to. In response to Poepoe, I guess I didn't make it clear that the aneurysm was meant as a result of him getting kicked in the head i.e. he died from a kick in the head, not some freak medical anomaly :D. I just decided to add some detail in it.

I guess I've gotten myself into something that's a lot more complicated then some posts on here make it seem :D I will have to read more about the British administration of the time in order to get a better feel for how politics might've changed (I recognize the names but not views and such attached to them).

Thanks though Grey Wolf, you seem very well versed in the subject as in past threads I've seen you bring a lot of input into this type of scenario.
 
Edward VII was useful and influential because he was useful. I'm not one to demean the role of monarchy, but it was only because it was British GOVERNMENT policy that the monarch could play a strong supporting role.

He is going to be as much anti-French as anyone, anyway, what with a recent conflict, and German cousins he can actually get on with - Heinrich was a keen sailor, and a German admiral of course.

From recent readings I don't think that there is anything that can be done to change Edward VII's opinion of the French. He was never as pro-Germany as his mother. I could see Edward trying to act as a stabilizing and moderating force in any potential Anglo-French conflict. If there was any such conflict I also suspect that he would be the first to normalize relations.
 
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