WI: Alsace-Lorraine transferred to Switzerland in 1871?

[Mario]

It seems that Bismarck considered the possibility of transfering Alsace-Lorraine to Swiss sovereignty in 1871 instead of incorporating it to the German Empire.

The reasons behind such pretty odd consideration were two:

1) Create a real buffer between France and Germany and avoid a direct border between them.
2) Some of the most prominent German industrials complained about the competence that the powerful clothing industry of Mulhouse could pose to their own industries if it would be incorporated into the German home market.

However, Switzerland rejected such idea because the incorporation of Alsace-Lorraine might compromise its neutrality and bring an unwanted enemity from French side.

But what could have happened if Switzerland accepted the idea and incorporated Alsace-Lorraine as new Swiss cantons?

 

[DracoLazarus]

It seems that Bismarck considered the possibility of transfering Alsace-Lorraine to Swiss sovereignty in 1871 instead of incorporating it to the German Empire.

The reasons behind such pretty odd consideration were two:

1) Create a real buffer between France and Germany and avoid a direct border between them.
2) Some of the most prominent German industrials complained about the competence that the powerful clothing industry of Mulhouse could pose to their own industries if it would be incorporated into the German home market.

However, Switzerland rejected such idea because the incorporation of Alsace-Lorraine might compromise its neutrality and bring an unwanted enemity from French side.

But what could have happened if Switzerland accepted the idea and incorporated Alsace-Lorraine as new Swiss cantons?

Switzerland isn't a Great Power, and probably would lack the ability to just sit on Alsace-Lorraine.

I think it's not unlikely that, starting in the late 1870s, France would prop up Rattachisme in the Swiss Cantons. Which - being French, I am most likely biased, but that's my opinion - would probably find fertile ground.

A rattachist majority would probably start unilateral referenda for rattachments to France and start diplomatic crises, but I doubt the Swiss would be likely to want to go to war for Alsace, and even less for Lorraine, so it would most likely wind up as Germany threatening France over the Alsaciens trying to rejoin France.

Overall, I think German imperial disregard for neutrality would be made clear earlier, and their diplomatic reputation would also fall apart quicker.

Internationally, I think Swiss Alsace-Lorraine would appear far more artificial than German Alsace-Lorraine, and thus French revanchism would be significantly harder to ridicule.

 

[Lalli]

I doubt that Switzerland would want that. It is too large for controlling and France would be pissed about that for Switzerland. And owning such strategic place just would mean that Swiss neutrality would be over once Europe is on war again.

So if Bismarck really manages to give A-L to Switzerland, it probably just gives the place bavk to France.

 

[Atterdag]

So if Bismarck really manages to give A-L to Switzerland, it probably just gives the place bavk to France.

Hm, maybe that wouldn't be so bad? Bismarck gets the southern states in his German Empire, France won't want revanche against Germany like in otl, seems like a good way to pawn off what he saw as a potential problem for Germany on someone else.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Hm, maybe that wouldn't be so bad? Bismarck gets the southern states in his German Empire, France won't want revanche against Germany like in otl, seems like a good way to pawn off what he saw as a potential problem for Germany on someone else.

I think it would mark a significative loss of face for Bismark.
The Northern interests that led to the conquest of Alsace-Lorraine, namely a need to have land to build fortifications at the French border, that didn't belong to the Southern German states, would be spurned by the cession of Alsace to Switzerland; the Southern interests, which were for a buffer against France, would be spurned by the retrocession; and the desire to cripple France - by depriving it of its iron and burying it in debt - would find itself even more unsatisfied than OTL.

 

[El_Fodedor]

What if instead of going the route of not taking land to not piss the French, Bismarck goes the path of taking enough land to cripple them the most?

How much land could Germany take, plus AL, without making the British intervene on the French side? Maybe Bismarck could throw some French colony to the British to appease them if he goes after more French land than OTL. If the British do accept then this would isolate the French even more.

 

[Yuhaoyang]

What if instead of going the route of not taking land to not piss the French, Bismarck goes the path of taking enough land to cripple them the most?

How much land could Germany take, plus AL, without making the British intervene on the French side? Maybe Bismarck could throw some French colony to the British to appease them if he goes after more French land than OTL. If the British do accept then this would isolate the French even more.

France didn't have much colony then——1870 was way before the Scramble for Africa ，the protectorate over Tunis and Morocco，or the full conquest of Indochina——and Britain wouldn't want Algeria.

 

[El_Fodedor]

France didn't have much colony then——1870 was way before the Scramble for Africa ，the protectorate over Tunis and Morocco，or the full conquest of Indochina——and Britain wouldn't want Algeria.

They already have a piece of Indochina, maybe Britain would be interested in this area. It's a rich region.

 

[Tanc49]

They already have a piece of Indochina, maybe Britain would be interested in this area. It's a rich region.

It's interesting but it wasn't very pacified then. The French also only had Cochinchina which was missing the link to Chinese hinterland which the Tonkin brought.
This is also after Garnier's up the Mekong in 1866 so there's some sense you can't access China from there either

 

[TheSwedishHistorian]

I could see a partial incorporation. this might mean a slight loss lf face for bismark but it could mean clear dominance for the german parts of Switzerlandand ensure their germanic future.

here is another possible partition way

Give Switzerland the Oberelsoß, Luxembourg the Luxembourgish areas and divide the rest between France and Germany

 

[Hastings]

Giving Alsace-Lorraine to Switzerland makes a certain sense in terms of ensuring that either side would have to invade a neutral power to fight the other. The issue is Switzerland. Even besides it not wanting to be a buffer zone, AL had a population of 1.6 million while Switzerland had 2.7 million. That is going to shape the character of Switzerland a lot and the existing Cantons won't like that. AL would skew the linguistic balance, making Switzerland more German. AL is also 80+% Catholic and it is less than 25 years since the Sonderbund War when an alliance of 7 Catholic Swiss Cantons were defeated. Hard to see what benefit the Swiss get besides looking bigger on a map.

Another option would be to attach AL to Luxembourg (then in personnel union with Netherlands). However could see both France and Prussia having issues with that.

Might make more sense to make the region independent under some non-Prussian aligned ruler and try to get the other Great Powers to guarantee it, though that obviously has its own problems.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Giving Alsace-Lorraine to Switzerland makes a certain sense in terms of ensuring that either side would have to invade a neutral power to fight the other. The issue is Switzerland. Even besides it not wanting to be a buffer zone, AL had a population of 1.6 million while Switzerland had 2.7 million. That is going to shape the character of Switzerland a lot and the existing Cantons won't like that. AL would skew the linguistic balance, making Switzerland more German. AL is also 80+% Catholic and it is less than 25 years since the Sonderbund War when an alliance of 7 Catholic Swiss Cantons were defeated. Hard to see what benefit the Swiss get besides looking bigger on a map.

It is far from guaranteed that the Alsacien and Lorrain cantons would use Hochdeutsch as their language of state. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with Francophone institutions.
But yeah, it would be a destabilizing expansion which would wind up fairly impermanent.

Another option would be to attach AL to Luxembourg (then in personnel union with Netherlands). However could see both France and Prussia having issues with that.

Might make more sense to make the region independent under some non-Prussian aligned ruler and try to get the other Great Powers to guarantee it, though that obviously has its own problems.

The question would be pro-French sentiment which would remain extremely dominant for a few decades at least.
In addition, a 1871 independent A-L would remain strongly tied to the French state economically as well, so if Germany doesn't take A-L for itself, it's a given that by 1890 it will be French all over again.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

Perhaps just the area between Mulhausen and Basle since Mulhausen was an associated state of the Old Confederation (pre-Nappy).