WI: Allies and USSR beat Hitler at his own game in 1939?

I'm exploring if there were any possible scenarios where the Allies could have a swift victory over Hitler after the outbreak of WWII in 1939. Here is a scenario I am putting forward to you experts, which relies on the Allied and Soviet leaders being smarter and much more trickier than in OTL:

  • France ditches its old generals who want to fight WWI again and hide behind the Maginot Line. Instead Paris appoints contemporary thinkers like De Gaulle et al. This means that when war breaks out in September 1939, France goes on the offensive, using Blitzkreig style tactics.
  • Stalin signs the Non-Aggression Pact with Hitler as per OTL. However, this is a ruse. The Allies know that Poland will not allow Soviet troops to enter Polish soil. So the Allies and Stalin secretly create this pact to trick Hitler into a false sense of security, and to enable Soviet troops to enter Poland.
  • Once the Soviets occupy their share of Poland as per the Non-Aggression Pact, they proceed with a surprise attack on Nazi occupied Poland.
With Nazi Germany caught by surprise and under pressure on two fronts, is a swift Allied victory possible?

Is there a strong possibility of Hitler being overthrown by his Generals at this time?
 
Stalin wanted the Fascists and Imperialists to bleed each other out. What does he gain by this without the knowledge of hindsight?
 
Stalin wanted the Fascists and Imperialists to bleed each other out. What does he gain by this without the knowledge of hindsight?

War between the Nazis and Soviets was inevitable. Maybe he thought it was better to take the initiative.
 

gaijin

Banned
War between the Nazis and Soviets was inevitable. Maybe he thought it was better to take the initiative.
He thought it was inevitable indeed. He also realized the red army needed time to recover from the purges.

Looking at the situation from Stalins POV in early mid 1939, letting the Germans and Anglo-French fight it out was the best possible move. Any other options is worse (unless you have hindsight).
 
Another issue: how do you get France to abandon its bunker mentality? The trauma of the Great War is still very fresh, and there's still the rather hopeless and jumbled political situation.

Besides, de Gaulle was pretty low on the pole in 1939. It would be like the Joint Chiefs seeking out a lower ranking officer to lead a defense of Alaska.
 

GarethC

Donor
I'm exploring if there were any possible scenarios where the Allies could have a swift victory over Hitler after the outbreak of WWII in 1939. Here is a scenario I am putting forward to you experts, which relies on the Allied and Soviet leaders being smarter and much more trickier than in OTL:

  • France ditches its old generals who want to fight WWI again and hide behind the Maginot Line. Instead Paris appoints contemporary thinkers like De Gaulle et al. This means that when war breaks out in September 1939, France goes on the offensive, using Blitzkreig style tactics.
This is not quite right. The Maginot Line didn't offer the same defences everywhere, but was designed to make Germany choose not to attack through the eastern border but instead hook through Belgium, which is where the fighting would take place (good for France, but rather hard on Belgium). Although there were indeed notable problems with the senior levels of French command, not least in not grasping the importance of communication and the OODA loop. But the plan was not for a defensive war hiding behind the Line, but rather an offensive one that just happens to start in Belgium and then grinds its way to Berlin - see pdf27's Blunted Sickle timeline for an example of the French plan going less awry than OTL.

The French don't want a Blitzkrieg - a war of maneuver that bypasses the German army and forces capitulation. They actually want to attrite the Heer after establishing a decisive materiel superiority over it. Changing that goal is what we want, but probably needs an earlier POD.

The French aren't really ready for a war in 1939, and particularly not a quick and offensive one. Maybe if there had been a consensus in France in 1936 after the remilitarization of the Rhineland that France ought to move smartly to be able to start an offensive war against Germany if Hitler continues to expand, then it might have been possible to get limited mobilisation underway over the summer and go in September. That's quite a different France to the one that guaranteed Poland's integrity in the hope of averting war, though.

  • Stalin signs the Non-Aggression Pact with Hitler as per OTL. However, this is a ruse. The Allies know that Poland will not allow Soviet troops to enter Polish soil. So the Allies and Stalin secretly create this pact to trick Hitler into a false sense of security, and to enable Soviet troops to enter Poland.
  • Once the Soviets occupy their share of Poland as per the Non-Aggression Pact, they proceed with a surprise attack on Nazi occupied Poland.
With Nazi Germany caught by surprise and under pressure on two fronts, is a swift Allied victory possible?

Is there a strong possibility of Hitler being overthrown by his Generals at this time?
Stalin is not in the best state to deliver on this. The cream of the Red Army (i.e. those officers that haven't been shot) are off in the Far East giving the Kwangtung Army a good kicking (and taking quite a lot of kicking back too). Stalin was not in a hurry to roll over Poland but really did want to let the Heer do the bulk of the hard fighting there, because his purge-weakened forces weren't anywhere near finished with the restructuring that would make up for the lack of experience in the surviving officer corps and the weak doctrine that wasn't yet sorted out. Swamping Poland after the bulk of its forces have been committed against (and destroyed by) Germany is a very different prospect to launching a campaign of meeting engagements against the Heer.

Additionally, Stalin is in the mood for a Winter War which will have to be put off if he goes after Hitler. The tiny Finns are a much nicer target than the large and swiftly-militarizing Germans.
 

jahenders

Banned
He thought it was inevitable indeed. He also realized the red army needed time to recover from the purges.

Looking at the situation from Stalins POV in early mid 1939, letting the Germans and Anglo-French fight it out was the best possible move. Any other options is worse (unless you have hindsight).

Agreed. Stalin wanted as much time as possible for Russia to recover before it had to fight Germany. It would probably fare quite poorly in 39.

For France the POD to achieve this would likely have to be back in the late 20s, changing French procurement and training dramatically, building less fortifications and more offensive systems, etc. They'd also need to decide on their path to attack Germany -- do they push due East through the Ardennes area or attack through the low countries (assuming they can get permission or that they violate neutrality).
 
Top