WI: Allied forces land in Alexandretta during World War I

[NotYetRegistered]

So I read Kitchener had planned an attack on Alexandretta, in Syria, near old Antioch, to split the Ottoman Empire in two and capture its central rail road hub. However, Churchill convinced him to go along with the Gallipoli plan. What if Kitchener stuck to his plan and the Allies did this?

Here's what Wikipedia says.

In an effort to find a way to relieve pressure on the Western front, Lord Kitchener proposed an invasion of Alexandretta with Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC), New Army, and Indian troops. Alexandretta was an area with a large Christian population and was the strategic centre of the Ottoman Empire's railway network — its capture would have cut the empire in two. Yet he was instead eventually persuaded to support Winston Churchill's disastrous Gallipoli Campaign in 1915–1916.

 

[Tallil2long]

There certainly couldn't have been much in this area in the spring of 1915. The XII Corps with two divisions (35th, 36th) had been moved into Syria in Sep-Oct 1914, but the 35th had immediately been sent back to Mesopotamia to counter British advances there.

The VIII Corps had five divisions, but after the failed effort to attack the Suez Canal, it had fallen back to the Gaza-Beersheba line and stayed there guarding against British advance into Palestine.

The entire 1st and 2nd Armies, with between 12 and 16 divisions (depending on the exact date) lay in European Thrace and beside the Straits.

Aside from Third Army in the Caucasus (fully engaged), VII Corps in Arabia/Yemen (4 divs), and Iraq Command in Mesopotamia (2-3 divs), there was nothing else.

So, if the British had landed in Spring of 1915, they'd presumably have been opposed by only one division, which was probably broken up into detachments. There'd probably be a few Jandarma battalions around, but they'd be effectively worthless.

For reinforcements:
Third Army was fighting to stabilize a line against the Russians following the disastrous Sarakamis campaign. No help to be expected there.

Iraq Command was fully engaged north of Qurna.

With the British busily building their logistical routes in Sinai, VIII Corps could probably spare a couple of divisions, but they'll take a few days to get there.

1st and 2nd Armies will provide the great bulk of the reinforcements -- 8 or 10 divisions, perhaps. But with the incomplete rail lines over the Taurus and Amanus Mountains requiring troops to march overland to the next completed stretch (twice!), they will be moving slowly. As they do arrive, they will probably be fragmented and lacking in artillery.

Here it will be interesting to note that when 8th Division left Istanbul on 4 Apr 1916, it took two days by train to reach the Pozanti RR gap over the Taurus Mtns; it marched four days to the next stretch of completed railway where it rode for one day, to the Osmaniye RR gap; then it marched for five days to the next stretch of railway and thence east to Diyarbakir.
All divisions headed from Istanbul to Alexandretta will have to take this same route, sans the eastward turn at the end. So twelve to fifteen days from Istanbul to Alexandretta seems likely. Given the poor transport capability of Ottoman divisions, there will be large numbers of troops falling out along the way.

If I had to guess, I would say the troops landing at Alexandretta would have 2-4 days before troops from VIII Corps could reach them, and that would only be 2-3 divisions, arriving sequentially. It'll be about 2 weeks for 1st and 2nd Army troops to arrive; they too will arrive sequentially, but there will eventually be 8-10 divisions.

Seems like a powerful invasion force should be able to do an enormous amount of damage under those circumstances, defeating Ottoman reinforcements in detail as they arrive, and cutting the Ottoman Empire into bits that can't support each other. At least two of those bits cannot conceivably support their war efforts on local resources alone (Palestine and Mesopotamia).

Ottoman Turkey out of the war by the end of 1916 seems probable. Maybe much earlier.

 

[Tallil2long]

The biggest challenge in writing a TL on this is the POD. As I understand it, IOTL the only way they got agreement to divert forces from the "major theaters" was by promising a rich pot, easy winnings, and quick payoff.

The Straits were (in the words of Grey) the "richest prize of the war". The difficulties to be encountered were understated, and seizing the Straits would obviously have an almost immediate effect towards winning the war.

Landing at Alexandretta would require a longer-range vision. Given the atmosphere of the time, that might be too much to expect -- especially from someone like Churchill version 1915.

 

[NotYetRegistered]

Pretty cool. If the Ottoman Empire would indeed be out at 1916, what would the consequences for the Allies be? Would the Ottoman Empire exiting the war in 1916 prevent its destruction?

 

[Tallil2long]

Pretty cool. If the Ottoman Empire would indeed be out at 1916, what would the consequences for the Allies be? Would the Ottoman Empire exiting the war in 1916 prevent its destruction?

Not a chance. The De Bunsen Committee Report of June 1915 strongly urged a "devolution" system, whereby the Ottoman Empire retained only nominal authority over the non-Anatolian provinces; actual authority would be exercised by Britain and France, with Britain extending its control to Mosul specifically to obtain all the oil producing regions.

Once the Entente powers had their de facto colonies, the Ottoman Empire was finished. It would just be a while before the British and French felt comfortable dropping the pretense.

 

[jsb]

What would be the long term effect on the war ?

Who would fold first Ottomans or Russia ?

JSB

 

[Tallil2long]

What would be the long term effect on the war ?

Who would fold first Ottomans or Russia ?

JSB

Ottomans, I'm pretty sure.

Will clearing the Straits at the end of 1916 keep Russia in the war? I can't see how; it's too late.

Maybe if the Ottomans fold in, say, August 1915, due to realization that their cause is hopeless, then maybe the Russians stay in a few months longer than OTL. I dunno enough to say for sure.