WI:All three princes were killed in the Otsu Incident?

Inspired by this timeline here,what would happen if the renegade policeman was actually much well prepared,say he brought a gun with him and killed all three princes(Nicholas,his younger brother and their cousin) in the incident?I would imagine it would have a far major impact than otl or if only Nicholas was killed .International opinion would also be quite hostile I'd imagine.Would the Tsar go ape and declare war on Japan?If not,what would be the potential terms for settling the dispute?If war does occur,how would it likely proceed?
 
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Well, with both Nicky and George dead, Alexander is left with Michael as his only heir, who is twelve when the Otsu incident occurs and barely sixteen when Alexander dies IOTL. Russia ends up more unstable than when Nicky handled it, considering that if someone didn't want the throne even more strongly than Nicholas, it was Michael. So an earlier Russian Revolution.

As for Alexander, he might pull off what Austria-Hungary did to Serbia IOTL when Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, asking Japan for nigh-impossible demands or else face war. So earlier Russo-Japanese war.

The only thing that will go better for the Romanovs ITTL is that without the Tsar marrying a hemophilia carrier, there would be no hemophiliac heir to the throne wreaking havoc on his neurotic mother's sanity, and thus, no Rasputin.
 
Well, with both Nicky and George dead, Alexander is left with Michael as his only heir, who is twelve when the Otsu incident occurs and barely sixteen when Alexander dies IOTL. Russia ends up more unstable than when Nicky handled it, considering that if someone didn't want the throne even more strongly than Nicholas, it was Michael. So an earlier Russian Revolution.

As for Alexander, he might pull off what Austria-Hungary did to Serbia IOTL when Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, asking Japan for nigh-impossible demands or else face war. So earlier Russo-Japanese war.

The only thing that will go better for the Romanovs ITTL is that without the Tsar marrying a hemophilia carrier, there would be no hemophiliac heir to the throne wreaking havoc on his neurotic mother's sanity, and thus, no Rasputin.
Assuming that Alexander is completely devastated and wants to crush Japan by any means at his disposal,how badly would the Japanese have been beaten?Would Russia have been capable of supporting large land forces in Japan at this stage?I would imagine that the Russians would have had naval supremacy at this stage and the imperial Japanese army would have been far less formidable than after the Sino-Japanese war.What kind of terms would be expected after Japan's defeated?I guess a really big winner would be China and Korea,since Japan would be crippled badly that they couldn't launch the Sino-Japanese war.The British might also be forced to transfer their bets on the Chinese to balance Russian power in the region.
 
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Assuming that Alexander is completely devastated and wants to crush Japan by any means at his disposal,how badly would the Japanese have been beaten?Would Russia have been capable of supporting large land forces in Japan at this stage?I would imagine that the Russians would have had naval supremacy at this stage and the imperial Japanese army would have been far less formidable than after the Sino-Japanese war.What kind of terms would be expected after Japan's defeated?I guess a really big winner would be China and Korea,since Japan would be crippled badly that they couldn't launch the Sino-Japanese war.The British might also be forced to transfer their bets on the Chinese to balance Russian power in the region.

The problem with 1891, is that if Russia declares war on Japan and sends an army to Japan, it leaves its Western front, open for attack, which since
the expiration of the League of Three Emperors treaty, Tsar Alexander III, had stationed a large number of troops near the German frontier, especially with the new German emperor, Kaiser Wilhelm II (for whom the Tsar had an immense dislike), and the Wilhelm government's unwillingness to renew the treaty.

Where as Emperor Meiji, is a 59 year old man suffering from diabetes, nephritis, and gastroenteritis, he does not want to end his reign in a war, he knows his country is not ready for.

Russia wouldnt need to land forces onto the islands, if they could blockade ports, stopping emports and fishing boats, they could wait until either the Japanese population starved due to their Government's stubborness or for the government to surrender, with Russia, laying down a harsh peace treaty.
 
The problem with 1891, is that if Russia declares war on Japan and sends an army to Japan, it leaves its Western front, open for attack, which since
the expiration of the League of Three Emperors treaty, Tsar Alexander III, had stationed a large number of troops near the German frontier, especially with the new German emperor, Kaiser Wilhelm II (for whom the Tsar had an immense dislike), and the Wilhelm government's unwillingness to renew the treaty.

Where as Emperor Meiji, is a 59 year old man suffering from diabetes, nephritis, and gastroenteritis, he does not want to end his reign in a war, he knows his country is not ready for.

Russia wouldnt need to land forces onto the islands, if they could blockade ports, stopping emports and fishing boats, they could wait until either the Japanese population starved due to their Government's stubborness or for the government to surrender, with Russia, laying down a harsh peace treaty.

Would the 1891 Russian Pacific Fleet be able to keep up a blockade, though?
 
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