WI: All of Ulster in Northern Ireland

Whiter the Boundary Commission in this scenario?

It will be there as in OTL, and with probably the same results: the North does not take part (they have nothing to gain); some in the the South will expect large changes. Eventually small ones are proposed under protest, and none implemented.

Of course the situation is unlikely for the reasons I gave before, but if Westminster insists on the whole Province in the Treaty then the only territory that might change hands later would be in Cavan, which is quite isolated from the rest of Ulster. Once they have it, the North are not going to to want to give up the Monaghan rail link, or any part of Donegal.

There are several interesting consequences:

The most northerly part of Ireland is now actually in the North
The great majority of the land, if not the population, is now west of the Bann. I can see Derry developing as a counterweight to Belfast, together (possibly) with Omagh, Enniskillen and Monaghan. Politics may become more divided East/West than on sectarian lines.

The west includes the pilgrimage site of Lough Derg and the Gaeltacht of West Donegal, so Catholic Gaelic culture cannot be associated solely with the Free State. Interest in the language was not so politicised as it became later in OTL - Lord Carson, for example was a fluent Irish speaker. Perhaps the northwest becomes a thriving centre for Gaelic culture, with or without the blessing of Stormont.

Perhaps, if things progress more or less as in OTL, there will be a Royal Navy base at Killybegs to make up for the loss of the Treaty ports?

All in all TTL Donegal could be a very interesting place
 
Indeed. Great credit goes to those members of the political class who refused the very generous bribes being handed out. Lord Powerscourt was offered an Earldom for support for the Act of Union and responded by kicking the person making the offer out of his house (literally).

Not necessarily from the later Nationalist viewpoint. Remember, these were the old Ascendancy, whose fathers had instituted the Penal Laws. A major motive for the Act of Union was the shock of the '98 Rising and the French invasion, which happened on their watch. Maynooth College, for example, was established after the Union so that Catholic priests would not be trained on the Continent, where they might be exposed to all sorts of revolutionary ideas. The leading lights of the new Orange Order were among those who opposed the Act of Union.

An Ireland where the Act was defeated might have been a much darker place.
 
Newly certified unionists are going to want equal access to employment and business opportunities. This will bring them into competition with both blue collar and white collar long term unionists.

White collar long termers with more options would probably tolerate the competition. Blue collar long term loyalists with less options are not going to like newly certified unionist Catholic workers (unionists or not) expecting access to good blue collar job opportunities traditionally reserved for Protestants.

In short, being a generic unionist might not be good enough. Rather, one would need to be unionist and a member of the vague Scots Irish ethnic group. The end result could be even more subsidies from mainland Britain. One allotment going to Scots Irish employment. Another going to generic / newly certified unionists to avoid the: “What-they still don’t hire Catholic electricians at the ship yard?- my new Union jack is getting worn out.” line of thought.

Most of the industries that were the staple of the loyalist working class were entering a period of decline from the 1950s onwards. Something that would likely go hand in hand with moderate unionist outreach to Catholics is economic modernisation, new Universities (MacGuire College in Derry is guaranteed to be turned into a University in a less Belfast-centric 9 county Ireland), building motorways, attracting multinationals and expanding the welfare state system. Plenty of unionist arguments can be used to justify it such as "aligning" Ulster with Great Britain etc. The British Government might even get involved and encourage factories and industries to set-up in Ulster TTL to combat unemployment.

Sure there will be some losers, just like the loyalist working class of Glasgow lost out when the Clyde shipyards went under one after the other.

Possible outcome 1: TTL Belfast looks a lot like OTL Glasgow and the Ulster countryside has similarities with the Scottish countryside. The Unionist/Nationalist divide still exists but is far more blurred and more akin to the one in OTL Scotland.
Possible outcome 2: Ulster successfully modernises and takes full advantage of its devolved status to create the conditions necessary for an "Ulster Tiger" economy. Moderate unionism becomes a mainstream ideology and the political divide switches to cities vs country. A moderate UUP eventually follows its Scottish counterpart and merges with the Conservative Party. Nationalists gravitate more towards Labour. In rural areas, Catholics and Protestants found that their "traditional values" have a lot in common, both can't stand abortion, "metropolitan types" and outsiders generally. Urban working classes have found that poverty doesn't care what brand of the Bible you read.
Possible outcome 3: The Troubles still happen but moderate unionists call for and obtain full integration of Ulster in the United Kingdom as a "third way" solution. The Troubles eventually die down and Ulster calms down. Things are roughly similar to OTL except that an Alliance like party has 25/30% of the votes.
 
Possible outcome 1: TTL Belfast looks a lot like OTL Glasgow and the Ulster countryside has similarities with the Scottish countryside. The Unionist/Nationalist divide still exists but is far more blurred and more akin to the one in OTL Scotland.
Possible outcome 2: Ulster successfully modernises and takes full advantage of its devolved status to create the conditions necessary for an "Ulster Tiger" economy. Moderate unionism becomes a mainstream ideology and the political divide switches to cities vs country. A moderate UUP eventually follows its Scottish counterpart and merges with the Conservative Party. Nationalists gravitate more towards Labour. In rural areas, Catholics and Protestants found that their "traditional values" have a lot in common, both can't stand abortion, "metropolitan types" and outsiders generally. Urban working classes have found that poverty doesn't care what brand of the Bible you read.
Possible outcome 3: The Troubles still happen but moderate unionists call for and obtain full integration of Ulster in the United Kingdom as a "third way" solution. The Troubles eventually die down and Ulster calms down. Things are roughly similar to OTL except that an Alliance like party has 25/30% of the votes.


Options 1 and 2 would be viable for mid to late troubles. But… In 1970 with the information age economy way over the horizon and heavy industry, though declining is still king, blue collar protestants were not going to give meaningful numbers of good jobs to newly minted Catholic unionists without a fight of some sort.

For example, let’s say 50% of the Catholics (about 17% population in 1970) became unionists for various motivations- then wanted full and fast employment access to the good or “good” jobs. That would mean about 8% of the Protestants were going to lose their socially protected access to these jobs. The number of Protestants losing protected access would then grow slightly each year.

IOTL, the hard core Protestants called and enforced a general strike on their own population when they learned that the mainland British might be negotiating even moderate reforms w/o their consent.

Maybe the British do a US civil rights all “deliberate speed” policy in 1970….

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Real socio economic reforms are initiated under the British rights for British citizens idea (Hard core nationalists lose followership). But, the reforms are implemented in stages under a 5 year period. (Allows hard core loyalists time to adapt). Violence from Nationalists gets the reforms delayed. Violence from olde school Loyalists gets the reforms accelerated. Violence from both tribes causes mainland economic subsidies not to be sent.
 
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The only way I can see for all of Ulster to be included would be for some sort of population swap, Catholics from the North heading south and Protestants from the South heading north, or a one way arrangement that sees Catholics heading south. That would require people to accept that the split was going to be full and permanent.
 
Ultimately as said you'd have to come up with some way for a 9 county NI to sustain the Protestant/Unionist majority for them to agree. Of course the other question is would Dublin agree to that in the Treaty Talks?
 
The UVF of 1912 was formed to fight against the British Army. During both world wars Irishmen, north & south, Protestant & Catholic, unlike their English counterparts volunteered to put on the uniform of the British Army.

The only way an Irishman could join the British army in WW1 was to volunteer - and many including my Grandfather did. Conscription was not introduced to Ireland - because plans to do so galvanised independence groups in 1918 and the British backed down as a result.

Conscription was only introduced in the rest of Britain in 1916 by which time nearly 2.5 million men had volunteered - I would imagine that some of them were English.
 
Of course the other question is would Dublin agree to that in the Treaty Talks?
Pay them off? IIRC their were several debts, one of which later led to the Trade War, so offer to write them off/have the UK fully take them on. Perhaps also throw in a small amount of cash per person that moves south to help defray costs/the administrative burden.

I don't know what the status of land ownership was like in what would become the Republic but if the government came knocking and offered British owners of land in what would shortly become a separate country to buy it, perhaps with gilts, then there might be some takers. Turn around and offer to sell it at a discount to Cathoic farming families in Ulster to help solidify the borders. Even without that offer to buy Catholic properties, either land or housing, at a slight premium if they move south. All of this however costs money.
 
Options 1 and 2 would be viable for mid to late troubles. But… In 1970 with the information age economy way over the horizon and heavy industry, though declining is still king, blue collar protestants were not going to give meaningful numbers of good jobs to newly minted Catholic unionists without a fight of some sort.

For example, let’s say 50% of the Catholics (about 17% population in 1970) became unionists for various motivations- then wanted full and fast employment access to the good or “good” jobs. That would mean about 8% of the Protestants were going to lose their socially protected access to these jobs. The number of Protestants losing protected access would then grow slightly each year.

Harland & Wolff was already in need of restructuring in the 1970s, just like its counterparts on the Clyde, it was overmanned, inefficient and couldn't compete with Asian shipbuilders.
How this could have been different is another debate. But the expansionist economic policy that must go hand in hand with opening up more jobs to Catholics, will definitely not be based around shipbuilding.
This also means that London needs to be involved in the process instead of the "hands off" attitude of OTL.

IOTL, the hard core Protestants called and enforced a general strike on their own population when they learned that the mainland British might be negotiating even moderate reforms w/o their consent.

In the scenario we propose, the Protestant political class is likely to be even-more divided than OTL.
If a TTL version of the UWC strike happens, then the British government with support of some of Ulster's political class could crackdown on it hard. The British Army can be used to clear barricades, guarantee essential supplies etc.
 
Pay them off? IIRC their were several debts, one of which later led to the Trade War, so offer to write them off/have the UK fully take them on. Perhaps also throw in a small amount of cash per person that moves south to help defray costs/the administrative burden.

I don't know what the status of land ownership was like in what would become the Republic but if the government came knocking and offered British owners of land in what would shortly become a separate country to buy it, perhaps with gilts, then there might be some takers. Turn around and offer to sell it at a discount to Cathoic farming families in Ulster to help solidify the borders. Even without that offer to buy Catholic properties, either land or housing, at a slight premium if they move south. All of this however costs money.


There was a fair bit of movement in any case. I have an (incomplete) list of those who moved to County Fermanagh in the period 1920-25, and it looks like the total might be in the region of 600 individuals or households. Quite significant when the county had a total population of less than 60,000. Of these, less than 30% are listed as farmers, and about the same proportion are from beyond the three counties of Ulster. As far as I know, the Stormont government did provide some financial inducement for these people, but Westminster did not, and no one gave any assistance for those moving in the opposite direction

The British Government had to assure the North of its security (which it did at the Belleek salient with the aid of artillery) and at the same time let the Free State believe that the situation was purely temporary and open to review. I don't think a system of compensation for population transfer would have helped the second aim.
 
... and at the same time let the Free State believe that the situation was purely temporary and open to review. I don't think a system of compensation for population transfer would have helped the second aim.
Yeah, as I said it rests upon people having to accept that the split was going to be full and permanent. Which in itself is going to cause changes and problems.
 
once the ball starts rolling on the troubles there is no un sticky way for it to end with a 9 county ulster and catholic majority population

IRA will have significantly more support due to their demographic lead indicating they actually are a "colonised" people in need of self determination.
Even if the government is willing to give up ulster, sinn fein boycotted votes for independance otl, unionists would potentially vote rigg/suppress any referendum.

Even if ulster joined the irish republic the loyalists could potentially launch their own insurgency in the future.

Any second partition option may create a more homogenous northern ireland but would result in massive ethnic cleansing and decades of bad will following partition.
 
The only way an Irishman could join the British army in WW1 was to volunteer - and many including my Grandfather did. Conscription was not introduced to Ireland - because plans to do so galvanised independence groups in 1918 and the British backed down as a result.

Conscription was only introduced in the rest of Britain in 1916 by which time nearly 2.5 million men had volunteered - I would imagine that some of them were English.

This is true and no way meant to be insulting to the nations that fought in the Great War or for the millions butchered in it. The point is the Irish, (both sides of the house), something which both sides like to forget, volunteered in their thousands. The fact is over 60% of men of fighting age joined up. That includes both Protestant and Roman Catholic. Those men, particularly those from the south (but Ulstermen to) were stabbed in the back, both by their fellow countrymen and the British authorities.

One must also remember that the RIC, who Sinn Fein fought against were predominately of the Roman Catholic denomination, hence the arming of the UVF & later the B-men as the Protestants didn't particularly trust them either. I remember my uncle telling me of incidents when the RUC had to face down the B-men.

The whole point is Ireland should never have been divided. In reality it was only a red line on a piece of paper. The ordinary people carried out their business between Donegal & Derry the same as between Antrim & Bown or Dublin & Cork. The Punt and the pound were of equal value and both were often found together in people's pockets or tills.

The Irish War of Independence, the Irish Civil War, the Border Conflicts & the troubles prove Ireland was not mature enough to stand on its own two feet.

The Home Rule Bill was past, it was set in law. Those who opposed it, wether claiming to be nationalist or unionist, were criminals and should have been treated as such. Perhaps we could've been living in a better environment today, if the law had been properly applied and we just wished up a bit.
 
This is true and no way meant to be insulting to the nations that fought in the Great War or for the millions butchered in it. The point is the Irish, (both sides of the house), something which both sides like to forget, volunteered in their thousands. The fact is over 60% of men of fighting age joined up. That includes both Protestant and Roman Catholic. Those men, particularly those from the south (but Ulstermen to) were stabbed in the back, both by their fellow countrymen and the British authorities.

One must also remember that the RIC, who Sinn Fein fought against were predominately of the Roman Catholic denomination, hence the arming of the UVF & later the B-men as the Protestants didn't particularly trust them either. I remember my uncle telling me of incidents when the RUC had to face down the B-men.

The whole point is Ireland should never have been divided. In reality it was only a red line on a piece of paper. The ordinary people carried out their business between Donegal & Derry the same as between Antrim & Bown or Dublin & Cork. The Punt and the pound were of equal value and both were often found together in people's pockets or tills.

The Irish War of Independence, the Irish Civil War, the Border Conflicts & the troubles prove Ireland was not mature enough to stand on its own two feet.

The Home Rule Bill was past, it was set in law. Those who opposed it, wether claiming to be nationalist or unionist, were criminals and should have been treated as such. Perhaps we could've been living in a better environment today, if the law had been properly applied and we just wished up a bit.

For me as a plastic Irishman who is an Englishman......my opinion is that the UK drew too many lines on maps during this period and one of 2 things should have happened

1: 'We' kept all of Ireland as part of the UK and addressed the real and perceived issues impacting the different groups ie the social imbalances etc

2: 'We' gave the whole nation independence perhaps with conditions regarding bases etc

The half measures that took place were the worst thing that could have happened IMHO
 
The main problem was when Sir George Whites son came up to sell socialism to the Presbyterians in Ballymena. Socialism & Presbyteranism just don't go.
Socialism and Presbyteranism went to together rather well- so long as the term "socialism" was not used.

The mainland British were pouring billions of dollars into the Presbyterian tribe under the guise of subsidies or more vaguely "loyalist dues". These billions artifically propped up businesses, provided housing, and also provided work via government contracts. Needless to say, alot of these concepts are pretty well, socialistic.
 
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