You also need a very capable PM for domestic issues- a Stolypin/Witte figure- in addition to the talented staff officers HWG mentioned in high military command. Most importantly, land reform and broadening the government's support base. If Russia has capable commanders and decent success on the Eastern Front, then home front might be manageable or better depending on how the war goes. Tsar could keep a chunk of foreign affairs power, but domestic absolutely has to go.
One big question: what about Alexandra? Obviously she'd be emotionally distressed for a while if her husband is KIA, but what about her influence on Michael/Nicholas and the government?
"Distraught by her husbands heroic death HIH Alexandra has joined the Novodevichy Convent"
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