WI: Al Qaeda targets Russia instead of America?

whitecrow

Banned
I have seen a TL on here where Al Qaeda undergoes a change in leadership in 1990s and instead of targeting America boasts to assist their Muslim freedom-fighters in Chechnya and Chinese East Turkestan.

I think the TL was abandoned, but what do you think would happen? What if Al Qaeda devoted most of its resources to supporting Chechen rebels rather than going after America? What if Al Qaeda still tries to carry out a 9/11 style attack but against a target in Russia?

What effects will it have on the Chechen Wars? How would Russia react? How would the rest of the world react? Will America support Al Qaeda in any way?
 
Will America support Al Qaeda in any way?

America would not support Al Qaeda in any way. Us and the Russians aren't the best of friends, but that doesn't mean that we support wholesale slaughter of civilians, especially by an organization that attacked us three times before 9/11 even happened. It's more likely that we'd end up aiding the Russians in some capacity.

EDIT: and even if the pre-9/11 attacks are butterflied away by the change in leadership, we still wouldn't be helping them.
 

whitecrow

Banned
:eek::mad::confused:

And there's no 'incredulous' emoticon, so you'll have to imagine one.

“Support” doesn’t always mean “give guns to”. I can see U.S. politicians, depending on what U.S.-Russia relations are like, portraying Al Qaeda and the Chechens as noble freedom-fighters struggling to overthrow the yoke of tyranny and attain democracy. Its not like stuff like that doesn’t happen in OTL. As an example Rush Limbaugh infamously stated that "Lord's Resistance Army are Christians. They are fighting the Muslims in Sudan. And Obama has sent troops, United States troops to remove them from the battlefield, which means kill them... So that’s a new war, a hundred troops to wipe out Christians in Sudan, Uganda."
 
As an example Rush Limbaugh infamously stated that "Lord's Resistance Army are Christians. They are fighting the Muslims in Sudan. And Obama has sent troops, United States troops to remove them from the battlefield, which means kill them... So that’s a new war, a hundred troops to wipe out Christians in Sudan, Uganda."

But that's Rush Limbaugh, not the United States government.
 

d32123

Banned
I could see some Americans supporting Al-Qaeda verbally, and perhaps a loony congressman or two saying something somewhat supportive of them but the United States government would not openly support them.
 
“Support” doesn’t always mean “give guns to”. I can see U.S. politicians, depending on what U.S.-Russia relations are like, portraying Al Qaeda and the Chechens as noble freedom-fighters struggling to overthrow the yoke of tyranny and attain democracy. Its not like stuff like that doesn’t happen in OTL. As an example Rush Limbaugh infamously stated that "Lord's Resistance Army are Christians. They are fighting the Muslims in Sudan. And Obama has sent troops, United States troops to remove them from the battlefield, which means kill them... So that’s a new war, a hundred troops to wipe out Christians in Sudan, Uganda."

I think it's pretty universally accepted that Limbaugh is Mind-Fuckingly Insane.
 
No, no, no, no, no! The US would not help Al-Queda, you are getting confused with the Taliban I assume during the Cold War. Things were different back then, the US did supply some of the Taliban with weapons to fight the USSR, but not Al-Queda. In 2001, the US and Russia are on cool, but otherwise peaceful terms, the US would never sanction such a baltant act of agression by an organization that has attacked them too.

Al-Queda attacking Russia. Sure I guess that's plasuible under different leadership. Perhaps some other leader's family was brutalized by the Soviets as a child or something and wants some revenge later.

Effects? Hmmm...

We first need a target, if we are going 9/11 size, you are looking at around 5000 dead or similar targets to the Pentagon and WTC? Are we still using passenger jets? Assuming some 5000 Russians are killed how do they react?

Well I doubt this would go un-answered but trying to convince the Russian people to launch another venture into Afgahnistan would be hard despite the attacks. (It will be different this time! Honest!) More likely the Chechneyans will cop it.

There probably will be an international response, because Russia isn't going to be able to shoulder this alone. It's economy is weak, it's military is antiquated and it's goverment is corrupt. However, few Western nations would be as commited as they would be to assisting the US. Memories of the Cold War are still somewhat fresh for some people and old habbits die hard.
 
No, no, no, no, no! The US would not help Al-Queda, you are getting confused with the Taliban I assume during the Cold War. Things were different back then, the US did supply some of the Taliban with weapons to fight the USSR, but not Al-Queda. In 2001, the US and Russia are on cool, but otherwise peaceful terms, the US would never sanction such a baltant act of agression by an organization that has attacked them too.

Al-Queda attacking Russia. Sure I guess that's plasuible under different leadership. Perhaps some other leader's family was brutalized by the Soviets as a child or something and wants some revenge later.

Effects? Hmmm...

We first need a target, if we are going 9/11 size, you are looking at around 5000 dead or similar targets to the Pentagon and WTC? Are we still using passenger jets? Assuming some 5000 Russians are killed how do they react?

Well I doubt this would go un-answered but trying to convince the Russian people to launch another venture into Afgahnistan would be hard despite the attacks. (It will be different this time! Honest!) More likely the Chechneyans will cop it.

There probably will be an international response, because Russia isn't going to be able to shoulder this alone. It's economy is weak, it's military is antiquated and it's goverment is corrupt. However, few Western nations would be as commited as they would be to assisting the US. Memories of the Cold War are still somewhat fresh for some people and old habbits die hard.

You're right that there's no way Russia would invade Afghanistan, but I doubt that there would be any international push to help them out. 9/11 was only really exceptional because it's victims were Americans. Russia will be mad, realize Afghanistan's not happening, and then take out their anger on the Chechens. Without the kind of overreaction that America had there will be no acceleration into a War on Terror (TM) situation. The West will quickly forget about that time a few Russians got blown up, the Russians will have one more national tragedy, and the terrorists will still be sitting in Afghanistan.
 

whitecrow

Banned
You're right that there's no way Russia would invade Afghanistan, but I doubt that there would be any international push to help them out. 9/11 was only really exceptional because it's victims were Americans. Russia will be mad, realize Afghanistan's not happening, and then take out their anger on the Chechens. Without the kind of overreaction that America had there will be no acceleration into a War on Terror (TM) situation. The West will quickly forget about that time a few Russians got blown up, the Russians will have one more national tragedy, and the terrorists will still be sitting in Afghanistan.

This seems like a correct assessment to me. But I recall reading that even before 9/11, there were proposed U.S. plans for a joint Russian-American invasion of Afghanistan to oust the Taliban (right now, the only article I can find related to the topic is this). Would U.S. suggest it to Russia? Would Russia accept the proposal? How does it impact relations between Russia and U.S. down the road?

But would U.S. suggest it in the first place? U.: "Russia was attacked by Islamic terrorists? OK, but why should we start some kind of war to help the ex-Commies out?"
 
But would U.S. suggest it in the first place? U.: "Russia was attacked by Islamic terrorists? OK, but why should we start some kind of war to help the ex-Commies out?"

Actually the more I think about it, the more I think that the US wouldn't get involved much at all. It will be hard to rally support for such a venture from the public. The reaction from the US people and probably most of the West will be "Oh a bunch of Russians were killed by terrorists. Anyone we knew? No, oh well what a shame, what's on after the news?"
 

whitecrow

Banned
Actually the more I think about it, the more I think that the US wouldn't get involved much at all. It will be hard to rally support for such a venture from the public. The reaction from the US people and probably most of the West will be "Oh a bunch of Russians were killed by terrorists. Anyone we knew? No, oh well what a shame, what's on after the news?"
Good point. So how would it impact Al Qaeda operations if their "home base" in Afghanistan is not invaded? And what will Russian military & intelligence services do if they determine that Al Qaeda is stationed somewhere in Afghanistan?
 
hmmm.....Russia could flatten Afghanistan with air attack and missile strikes (Scarab and Iskander missiles), and I'm not sure Russia's army is THAT weak either. They've got some good, sophisticated equipment.
 
hmmm.....Russia could flatten Afghanistan with air attack and missile strikes (Scarab and Iskander missiles), and I'm not sure Russia's army is THAT weak either. They've got some good, sophisticated equipment.

IIRC the buildup happened AFTER 9/11 IOTL, and that was when oil prices started to get really high.

To answer the OP's question: RIP a lot of Chechens. I think America and allies will probably condemn the terror attack, and then condemn Russia's "heavy handed" response, but won't intervene otherwise.

Marc A
 
“Support” doesn’t always mean “give guns to”. I can see U.S. politicians, depending on what U.S.-Russia relations are like, portraying Al Qaeda and the Chechens as noble freedom-fighters struggling to overthrow the yoke of tyranny and attain democracy.

During the 80s, this might have been the case with some politicians. In the 90s, the Cold War was over, we weren't about to arm terrorists to deliver attacks on the soil of a nation we'd made peace with (more or less).
 

whitecrow

Banned
hmmm.....Russia could flatten Afghanistan with air attack and missile strikes (Scarab and Iskander missiles), and I'm not sure Russia's army is THAT weak either. They've got some good, sophisticated equipment.
IIRC the buildup happened AFTER 9/11 IOTL, and that was when oil prices started to get really high.
Would they maybe perhaps try to carry out a few hits/assassinations on important Taliban/Al- Qaeda commanders? Maybe an occasional air-strike? Would they Russia carry-out missile strikes like SAVORYapple suggests a few years after “9/11” (assuming Russia still gets an oil boom and thus money to re-arm)?

By the way, something that wasn’t discussed yet: would the outcome of the Chechen Wars be different if Al- Qaeda does all it can to support the Chechens? What route would foreign jihadists use to reach Chechnya? What happens to Taliban & Al- Qaeda in Afghanistan if there is no 9/11 against U.S.?
 
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