WI: Al Gore ran in 2004?

What would have happened had Al Gore decided to run for the Democratic nomination again in 2004, would he have had a chance at winning the nomination, and if he did; could he have beat Bush?
 
He probably could have won the nomination if he wanted it. The Democrats had a really weak field in 2004 with no real dominant candidate. Beating Bush is another matter. It was basically 50-50 in 2000, but now Bush has the advantage of incumbency. Still Kerry only lost by 2.5 points, and Gore would probably be a stronger candidate than Kerry. My guess is probably another 50-50 proposition with Bush eeking out a tiny victory again, but this time he gets the popular vote too.
 
If he wins the nomination and eventually the election, which I don't think he would of. His policy would be to withdrawal from Iraq, eventually end Bush's tax and fiscal policy which would plunge the US and the world in a fast, yet less severe recession, and still have the nightmare of Hurricane Katrina to deal with. All of these things he would get the blame for for not being more prepared even if his policies did not create the messes in the first place. You will probably see a Republican elected in 2008

Iraq breaks down into civil war following US withdrawal and becomes a bloodbath. If he doesn't leave, he still has to contemplate a surge in troops to stabilize it. He will eventually get the blame for it after the country falls apart during the Arab Spring and ISIS insurgency.
 
He'd easily get the nomination, but like others have said I don't think he'll beat Bush, although he'll probably do better than Kerry did (he may win Iowa and New Mexico like he did in 2000, Kerry lost both of them in '04 OTL.)

If for whatever reason he does win ITTL 2004, he'll be seen as the second coming of Jimmy Carter because he'll get the blame for everything that went wrong from '05-'08 even though it wouldn't be his fault. He'll get blamed for Iraq, the economy, gas prices, and Katrina (the state and local govts responded to Katrina as badly as Bush did in OTL, I don't see this being any different ITTL), and as a result of this, 2008 ITTL will be a repeat of 1980. The incumbent Democrat will get crushed by the Republicans.

This is why in hindsight (and I say this as a staunch Democrat), I'm glad Bush won in 2004. He rightfully (and in some ways wrongfully) got the blame for the sh*t that happened from 2005-8 and as a result, the GOP and the conservative movement was crippled, and the Democrats won big in 2008.
 
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One of my least favorite cliched pieces of punditry that you see every election is when somebody tries to make the argument that it's a *good* thing [x party] lost this election because it just means they'll be in an even better position in the NEXT election. It happens every time, no matter the party or candidate and it's just the worst.

That said...we do occasionally have these elections that, in hindsight, you'd be crazy to want to win. 1976 and (even moreso IMO) 2004 are two such elections.

If Gore (or any Democrat) wins in 2004, they lose in 2008 and we potentially see austerity take control until at least 2012.
 
If Gore (or any Democrat) wins in 2004, they lose in 2008 and we potentially see austerity take control until at least 2012.

I agree and this probably leads to a Democratic win (although a close one) in 2012.
 
What if Gore does slightly better than Kerry, enough to tilt Ohio but not the popular vote? In this case, it would be a reversal of 2000, since Gore would win the electoral vote but not the popular vote. What if that's the case?
 
I could easily see Gore winning the nomination, Much of the Democratic base considers him the legitimate president. I see Bush winning. He has the issue of terrorism and the gay marriage referendums. I see a narrow margin. If Gore wins he has to run for reelection during the economic collapse of 2008.
 
Gore could quite easily have won the nomination, the 2004 election will be a close one, but im agreeing with the consensus here, bush would just eek it out.
If Gore did somehow win then its an end to Bush tax cuts, withdrawl from Iraq, the 2007-8 recession would still happen, remember Gore would have a republican house and senate to deal with though.
Republican win in 2008, maybe McCain, possibly Romney, unlikely but possibly Giuliani. Austerity goes stateside, maybe it works, probably wont, 2010 sees a Democratic sweep of the House, Senate and a couple of governorships. Democrat wins in 2012.
 
One detail: Even if Gore wins Ohio (which I doubt--after all, he lost it by 3.5 points in 2000, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000 and he would have the problems Kerry did in 2004 with long lines, the same-sex-marriage referendum encouraging turnout among evangelicals, etc.) he could still lose if he doesn't carry NH (which he also lost in 2000). To what extent did Kerry owe his narrow victory there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004 to the "next-door neighbor effect"?
 
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