WI: Al Gore Ran for President in 2004

Let's say that sometime in early January 1995, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts announces he is not running for re-election in the US Senate Election in Massachusetts of 1996. Sometime in November 1996, following the US Presidential Election, Secretary of State Madeline Albright announces she does not want to serve as Secretary of State for a second term. President Bill Clinton nominates retiring Senator John Kerry to serve as his Secretary of State, and he serves in that role from January 20th, 1997-January 20th, 2001. Sometime in early January 1999, Vice President Al Gore announces he is not running for President of the United Stayes in the Democratic Party Presidential Primaries of 2000. Secretary of State John Kerry runs instead, and wins the nomination. Kerry narrowly loses the General Election against Governor George W. Bush of Texas.

Sometime in early January 2003, Former Vice President Al Gore announces his candidacy for the Democratic Party Presidential Primaries of 2004. In response, Former Secretary of State John Kerry announces he is not running. Would the Monica Lewinsky scandal play a part in how strong Al Gore's campaign performs if it was not as fresh in the memories of voters? How well would Gore do in ATL 2004 as opposed to his performance in OTL 2000? Would the same candidates who ran in OTL 2004 still run? If they did, would Gore be able to win the nomination? If he did win the nomination, how well would he perform against Incumbent President George W. Bush, as opposed to Governor George W. Bush?
 
Why would Gore decline to run? He’s a more obvious successor to Clinton than John Kerry (Gore is a moderate conservative Southerner, Kerry is a moderate Northerner who was viewed as a liberal at the time).

I suppose you’re trying to have it fit the mold of 2016-2020, with Sec of State losing and then VP running, which certainly could happen with similar motivations. Say, Gore suffered a personal tragedy right before the race and Kerry entered the field with full establishment backing. He wouldn’t have Gore’s field of basically nobody else running, because he’s not the incumbent, but he could still win there.

And Bush could be about as awful in his first term for Gore to step in and say he’ll run and probably even win.
 
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